With All Due Respect to Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, We Will Not ‘Shut Up’

I’m surprised Daniel Davis wrote a 4th article – his normal modus operandi is to publish three articles in rapid succession wherein he tries to pretend he is providing an objective analysis instead of repeating Russian propaganda.

As in all his articles, Davis is wrong and all of his conclusions are suspect. Washington analysts (among whom Davis wishes to pretend he is) certainly have a right and a responsibility to provide an analysis of the war. But ‘too slow’ is absolutely an unfair criticism. How fast is it SUPPOSED to be?

Obviously there is no answer to that. Everybody in Ukraine would like it to be as fast as reasonably possible. Using more forces and more equipment could potentially speed things up, but that would increase the rate of loss which Davis is consistently insisting is too high to begin with.

All of his arguments amount to a demand that Ukraine begin negotiations immediately. That was his demand in February 2022, that was his demand in August 2022, that was his demand in February 2023, and that has been his demand through August and into September 2023.

The question, then, is “Is Ukraine in a better position NOW than they were THEN for negotiations?” Since the answer is clearly ‘yes’, and it does not appear that they are on a track to result in a worse position for negotiations, they should continue on in the manner they have been with broad support from the American people and our elected representatives.

Russia can end this war at any time by withdrawing their forces from illegally occupied territory. The United States as a founding member of the United Nations and a participant in the Minsk Accords has a duty to help provide security to Ukraine.

When Daniel Davis claims that our duty instead is to ignore every other nation and our national interest in maintaining strong bilateral relations with our trade/security partners it amounts to treason.

Davis doesn’t need to ‘shut up’, but he’s wrong to call the Ukrainian advance ‘too slow’. What he OUGHT to do, though, is seriously reflect on his positions – if he’s been consistently wrong to this point, why should we believe he’s correct now?

Clearly, we should not.

In order to avoid an overly long response I wanted to call out two mischaracterizations that are emblematic of Davis’s dishonesty.

First, he claims that Russia held 22% of Ukrainian territory and now holds 17%. Russia held 24.4% and now holds 16.5%. Ukraine has reclaimed 50% of the territory occupied by Russia since the invasion. Davis treats territory captured by Russia since February 2022 the same as territory occupied in 2014 to imply that Ukraine has been ineffective at ‘moving the front’. That is a mischaracterization of the highest order!

And of course, the area that Russia is illegally occupying is larger than the area of some NATO countries! While NATO moves to PREVENT the seizure of ANY territory instead of a footing to RECLAIM conquered territory, dismissing that type of land-grab is callous to say the least. After what Russia did in Bucha and other occupied areas, nobody wants to see what Russian occupation for 6 months would look like.

Davis also claims that ‘conservatively’ 200,000 Ukrainians have been killed and wounded. Where does that figure come from? U.S. estimates are that 70,000 Ukrainians have been killed and 100,000-120,000 have been wounded. I would hardly call that a ‘conservative estimate’. It’s also very misleading to treat killed and wounded the same. Many people who are wounded have returned to combat. By using the word conservatively he IMPLIES that the casualties are significantly higher and by lumping killed and wounded together he IMPLIES that that entire figure has been taken out of combat.

Davis knows better. He is deliberately conflating the two numbers to support his desired narrative, not the truth. It’s important that people call him out on this.

Moral component? Why should anyone consider the morality of fighting to the last Ukrainian to “weaken and degrade” (Lloyd Austin’s words) Russia’s military? These aren’t OUR boys dying over there! It’s brave, heroic Ukrainian boys and dastardly, cowardly Russians who are doing all the dying. Why would anyone want to stop that, particularly when there is so much money to be made by keeping it going?

You’re whistling to the wind Lt. Col. Davis. This war is going to continue until the Russkies grind the Ukrainian population into dust. Unfortunately, I don’t think that is going to take a whole lot longer. The Ukrainians are having to resort to drafts, forbidding military age males from leaving their recruiting district, and giving the Army full discretion on how to get more troops. They’re giving the new “soldiers” three weeks of basic training and sending them into the meat grinder at the front.

Don’t beliee me? Go look at the BBC’s report on the status of Ukraine’s grave yards, or the reports from Bahkmut where Ukrainian soldiers have said that the government’s plan seems to be to exterminate it’s own people.

Morale component! HA! There’s gold in this here war!

As usual, Col. Davis is right on the money, however, this will not stop his detractors from spewing ad hominem attacks. The proxy war fan boys need to step up and volunteer for the front lines !

Sounds dismal.
Anyway, Zelenski should be required to hold free elections for arms.
Ukraine needs new strategy, as does US.
Apparentlt, the only reporter with guts is Tucker Carlson.

TheDon

Total denial of the battlefield facts.
First and Second lines of defence penertrated.
Russian arty being hammered and outfought.
The whole mechanism of Russias defensive lines is creaking.
Davies get a life and read the writing on the wall.Another push and the whole pack of cards is likely to fall.
Russia just cannot compete with a revamped Western Military supply and manufacturing chain.
End of.

I knew that Davis’s usual observations about Ukrainian were behind the curve; but, imagine getting this upset about something that was said 7 weeks ago.

Try to keep up, Davis!

Do they actually pay him for this detritus?

It’s naive to think that Russia would be pacified by abandoning Ukraine and that it wouldn’t embolden China.

Tone deaf Daniel Davis thinks himself as an analyst when he completely presents as a propagandist.

If showing you are morbidly stupid is important to you, by all means keep it up.

There is not a single time that DD has been correct. Not once! Everything he says he couches in case he is wrong, but of course he always is. Then uses his possibilities to say he was always right.

I did expect the “Spring offensive” to move much faster. But what I wasn’t prepared for was just how many mines Russia used. So that means several things. The first is that they can’t move too quickly. Which means they can’t bypass the entrenched Russian troops and go straight for the jugular. They have to clear out each tree line completely before they can move on to the next mined field. Yeah, it is a slow process. But unlike DD and the naysayers are saying they are doing a good job and actually taking less casualties than the Russians.

The biggest issue for Ukraine at the moment making the most casualties are IEDs in the trenches.

Yes, it is slow going and Ukraine is taking more casualties than they like. But really, there is no other choice. Unless they want to just give up their freedom and all become serfs to Russia. Now, I’m sure DD doesn’t care if this happens. He will just sit back pleased with himself and say how US saved money. But when Russia attacks a NATO country, I’m sure he will do the same yellow bellied call to just let Russia have it.

Unlike what DD and his moronic friends will tell you. We really have no option but to help Ukraine beat Russia. The consequences of not helping Russia would be unfathomable even to DD. His absolute shortsightedness proves that he his completely outgunned by about everyone when it comes to strategic thinking.

I listen to what DD says and I also listen to General Hodges, and the difference between them is incomparable. Gen Hodges gets it. He is spot on strategically. And then LtC Davis likes to make fun of it. Of course Gen Hodges probably doesn’t even know who DD is. DD is way out of his element. He seems to have learned all the wrong lessons and is too narcissistic to reconsider his flabbergastingly silly ideas.

Indeed we were well aware that Mr Davis would not shut up.

Decent article, but Jesus H Christ so e of the comments in here accessing the author of being deluded or misleading whilst literally quoting Ukranian state propaganda ver Batum.

Now try to engage brain.

Rabotina is being called by some here a town, the simplest research shows that it’s a village whose population at its height ore war was 350 people, ofc portraying it as a town suggests a greater achievement to take. But it’s misleading in the extreme.

Next.
Anybody who remotely believes ukranian or US figures on casualties is an absolute barnpot. Look at how many mobilization waves Ukraine has done, look at forced recruitment (so much evidence of this now online)look at various changes to conscription laws and look at the steadily reducing training times. look at the maps available showing available units and reserves, ALL post to Ukraine running out of men – hence the latest stories about conscription of every remaining male and pushing for the return of people who fled the country.

Now think just for a second about the number of 70k dead – doesn’t make any logical sense, the figure of 200k is a VERY low estimate and in fact as of November last year the head of the EU let slip that was the casualty figure back then, so god knows it’s true number but I’m guessing 400k + dead, Russia’s losses will be obviously significantly lower – for one they’ve been on the defensive – they enjoy significant artillery and air support advantages – AA too and significant advantages in training periods and supply of equipment (hell every t90 that’s been produced since November has been going to reserve units – same with the upgraded t82s and BMPs – that’s a HUGE amount of equipment held in reserve)

People seriously need to learn to read maps, don’t just listen to a media story, check out for yourself what is being said, to the commenter on here that says Ukraine has breached the second line of defence, show the proof, show the maps, show anything that remotely can prove that. Rabotina is still actually in the grey zone, it’s Kms away from even the first line of defence, and the Ukrainian forces are actually spreading and pushing to the sides, so going essentially parallel kind of at a distance from the lines, a cursory check of the maps shows this clearly.

But some people seriously believe that taking three months to take a village before the first layer of defence of 300 people suddenly morphs into breaking through two defensive lines in a week, reality check guys, the narrative about the Russian first line being something like 80% of the strength of defence is also stupid beyond belief, check out what was being said by analysts before the offensive, all of it stated the grey zone was a delaying zone intended to blunt the offensive for a week max, then each layer of defence became progressively a scale of magnitude stronger. Only now are we seeing the oh Russia put all the defence at the front line (which makes zero sense btw militarily) but is being used to try explain away the offensives massive failure.

For St. Sophronius:
1) Yours: “For Ukrainians, it is not about the “weakening of Russia”, but about their very survival as an independent country and people Answer: For 32 years since the creation of Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, etc. these countries have not become independent and prosperous.
you will be checked out … Zelensky! Zelensky exposed Ukraine as a “beggar” and compared it to “an actress of a German adult film” who is “ready to accept any amount from any side.” “What is Ukraine and why is it profitable to throw your money into it today? Sorry, invest. We have reached a new level of economy – it is called begging,” Zelensky says.
2) Yours: “That’s why they fight and sacrifice themselves, that’s why you don’t see Ukrainian soldiers deserting*….
Answer? Apparently, millions of men (from 18 to 60 years old) who escaped from Ukraine (35% of refugees) these are not deserters, but true patriots of Ukraine. However. Poland is going to extradite conscript-age refugees if there are official requests.
3) Yours: “So they wouldn’t care about the interests of some in the West, as long as these interests lead to them being helped in this struggle. ”
Answer: so the West does not care how many Ukrainians will die in Yona. Greetings from President Duda: Russia can be stopped “cheaply” in the Ukrainian conflict, since Americans do not participate in it. But if the US military joins the conflict, then the price for the West will already be “high”.
4) Yours: “Tamerlane, Cheburator, Gordon, the word is yours. When is NATO collapsing? This week or next?”
Answer: Your question suggests an analogic answer. Therefore, answer it yourself.

Davis is right. He will not shut up. it he probably should given how poorly his predictions and suggested courses of action have fared. People don’t fall him “Dumdum Davis” for nothing.

The author writes, “If Ukrainians want to keep fighting, the thought goes, who are we to deny them the means?”

Apparently, this is a dominant thought in one of two camps.

The United States Vital National Security Interest is not identical to Kiev’s.

(Vicarious thrill to power… seeing military action to carry out your personal grudges or desires is childish and dangerous… and, it’s not based in any sense of realism.)

Kiev wants to draw Nato forces, U. S. boots, into the war… have no doubt about that… is that in the United States’ Vital National Security Interest?

Seriously!

Only John Bolton and his ilk, see it that way, certainly not the average American.

An other camp “knows to the bottom of their hearts” that Kiev can “win” if only America empties the cup board of weapons (because they assume the U. S. Vital Security Interest is identical to Kiev’s).

The field of battle is splashing cold water all over the conceit of victory if only we keep stoking weapons into the furnace of war on the Eurasian Steppe.

Sorry, you are lying to yourself… and it leaves you in la la land… which ultimately hurts the average American… that’s who I care about.

Do you care more about the average American or about your vicarious desires to make Russia pay in men & blood, no matter what the cost?

That’s the true test of Patriotism.

Supporters of the Ukraine Project are mostly selfish to the extreme, self-obsessed with seeing their own personal vicarious desires carried out…even if those desires are detrimental to the United States of America.

Who’s the Patriot and who is not?

Ukrainian counter battery superiority has turned this war on its head in the last three months. Two thousand Russian artillery pieces alone plus eight hundred tanks and countless armoured vehicles in this time.
The notion that Russia would run out of these assets is now a reality. The accelerating break out in western Zaporizhia, and lateral redeployment of emergency reinforcements are testament to this.
There are two good months for Ukraine to hammer their punch drunk adversary. Daniel Davis will watch in horror.

Davis’s mistake is in assuming that Ukraine’s success must be measured by territory gained.

Ukraine knows that it doesn’t have the heavy armor, or air cover, that it would need to succeed with a big push to the coast. Instead, Ukraine’s strategy is to destroy as much of Russia’s military power as it can. Ukraine has been remarkably successful, with Russia being quite happy to oblige by expending its own manpower on ill equipped/planned attacks and counter attacks.

For example, Russia’s recent attack from Serhivka has been ground down to nothing.

Further, Russia’s counter attack in Klishchivka has resulted in the decimation of Russia’s 61st Naval Infantry Brigade.

Meanwhile, all 4 BARs regiments in Robotyne are effectively destroyed. Over the last 2 months Ukraine has destroyed 2 motor rifle divisions, the 810th NIB, the 291st artillery brigade, the 12th rocket artillery brigade and 2 Spetsnaz brigades. Russia tried to plug all the gaps with its one remaining VDV reserve regiment. Many of those got chewed up before they could even reach the front. On top of all that, Wagner is as good as gone.

Ukraine could be quite happy to hold the line and let another 3 Russian Divisions effectively commit suicide over the next few months.

Russia may be able to play the long term numbers game, and keep throwing more men in the meat grinder; however, they are losing men faster than they can replace them and are now out of experienced, fresh units. Estimates are that they lost 25,000 men in the last month, alone.

On the other hand, Ukraine has trained units being held back in reserve, and more in training for the long term.

Slowly gaining ground, clearing the massive mine fields and building logistical support, as they go; and meanwhile grinding Russian forces into dust is Ukraine’s path to a military victory. There is no rush to get to Mariupol.

With All Due Respect DD, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister did not have you in mind. He was referring to misguided analysts, not rambling propagandists. He is highly unlikely to have ever heard about you, and even more unlikely to have ever read any of your stubborn attempts to fit reality into your narrow vision of it.

You live in the west and therefore it is your right not to shut up, just like it is our right to criticize your cherry-picked facts and consistently flawed arguments.

Instead of desperately pretending that you have been targeted by Kuleba’s fair criticism that in fact was not intended for you, you should instead consider Foreign Minister Kuleba and Ukrainians rights to the same freedom you take for granted. If we had ever listened to you then Ukraine would have been subdued in some form to your likings by now and Kuleba would have had an unpleasant meeting with the pavement under a 10th floor open window. Ukrainians would quickly have learned the high price of having opinions not to Kremlins likings, the kind of lesson the Ukrainians already under brutal Russian occupation is learning. You could also benefit from expanding your thinking a bit. Try to imagine a little about what kind of lessons learned the rest of US’s friends and allies around the world will draw from the experience if US follows your advice. And scarier, what would be the lessons US’s adversaries learn.

Yes, it’s your right to not shut up, and we expect that you will not, but please shut up 🙂