The Weakness of Joe Biden – In a normal world, a presidential candidate facing 91 criminal counts would trail far behind an incumbent president.
But the fact Joe Biden remains statistically tied with his predecessor proves this is not the old normal. Donald Trump’s gambit of casting himself as the victim of his successor’s political vindictiveness seems to be paying off.
Biden’s approval rating remains stuck around 40%. No president seeking re-election has won a second term since polling began in the 1940s with an approval rating under 50%.
“Dave Wasserman, from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, posted earlier this month on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, that he believed Biden would lose the election to an indicted Trump if the election was held today. He noted that Biden had a positive favorability rating while Trump’s was about 41 percent in 2020, but Trump still was only 42,000 votes away in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin from winning,” Jared Gans wrote in The Hill.
Biden Alienates Minority Voters
Blacks who are a major demographic in the Democratic Party and Arab-Americans who support the Palestinian cause are against Biden. If they stay home next year it could hurt Biden’s campaign. The same is true if Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent presidential campaign divides the Democratic Party electorate by taking blue-collar voters from the president.
GOP Voters United Behind Trump
Trump is stronger than ever. Close to 60% of the Republican electorate stands behind him. The former president is barred by Judge Tanya Chutkin’s order from claiming that the prosecution against him is a “witch hunt” or that his successor is out to get him.
As a result, Trump’s attorneys who are representing him in the Jan. 6, 2021 election interference case have put their claims into the latest legal filing seeking to have the charges against him dismissed:
“In April 2022, the New York Times reported that, ‘as recently as late last year, Mr. Biden confided to his inner circle that he believed former President Donald J. Trump was a threat to democracy and should be prosecuted, according to two people familiar with his comments.’ The article also attributed the following to Biden: ‘he has said privately that he wanted [the Attorney General] to act less like a ponderous judge and more like a prosecutor who is willing to take decisive action . . . .’ That same month, the FBI reportedly ‘open[ed] an investigation of the electors scheme . . . , about 15 months after’ the January 6, 2021 protests at the Capitol,” Trump’s lawyers wrote in their court filing on Monday. “On November 9, 2022, Biden was much less private. At a press conference, Biden stated: ‘we just have to demonstrate that he will not take power—if we—if he does run. I’m making sure he, under legitimate efforts of our Constitution, does not become the next President again. ‘On November 15, 2022, President Trump announced that he would run for a second term as President.’”
The legal filing continued, “Three days later, Biden’s Justice Department appointed Jack Smith to oversee this case. In the press release appointing Mr. Smith, the Attorney General stated that the appointment was necessary because of ‘recent developments, including the former President’s announcement that he is a candidate for President in the next election, and the sitting President’s stated intention to be a candidate as well.’”
Trump’s ability to frame the charges against him as politically motivated accounts for his strength. By casting himself as a political martyr Trump is able to remove the stigma that normally accompanies such charges.
Biden Trails Trump in Key States
“The former president led Biden by 2 points in a national Emerson College poll released Friday and by 4 points in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll from Thursday of seven key swing states that will most likely decide the outcome of the 2024 race, including Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania,” Gans wrote. “Another Emerson poll out of Pennsylvania, released earlier this month, found Trump with a 9 point lead over the president.”
Democrats remain doggedly determined to stick with Biden despite his weakness against Trump. It could come back to haunt them next year when voters stay home due to disgust with both candidates. A lower turnout election would benefit Trump.
John Rossomando is a defense and counterterrorism analyst and served as Senior Analyst for Counterterrorism at The Investigative Project on Terrorism for eight years. His work has been featured in numerous publications such as The American Thinker, The National Interest, National Review Online, Daily Wire, Red Alert Politics, CNSNews.com, The Daily Caller, Human Events, Newsmax, The American Spectator, TownHall.com, and Crisis Magazine. He also served as senior managing editor of The Bulletin, a 100,000-circulation daily newspaper in Philadelphia, and received the Pennsylvania Associated Press Managing Editors first-place award for his reporting.
