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North Korea’s Military Parade: Hwasong-16 Has Arrived?

Hwasong-16 ICBM
What appears to be a new Hwasong-16 ICBM.

Despite North Korea being hammered this year by three typhoons, constant food insecurity issues, international sanctions and now threats from COVID-19, the Kim regime has shown the world once again its long-range missile program will continue to advance with each passing day.

What Pyongyang has shown us, what appears to be a new liquid-fueled ICBM that seems to be a derivative of what was tested back in late 2017, known as the Hwasong-15, is much bigger and clearly more powerful than anything in the DPRK’s arsenal. In fact, this may end up being classified as the Hwasong-16 ICBM by western military analysts.

Such a massive road-mobile missile–likely the biggest such missile on the planet–would have the capability to add either increased range or be able to carry a bigger payload. Carrying a big payload would allow North Korea to do potentially three things:

1. Carry a larger and even deadlier nuclear weapon to a target, like a U.S. city or military base.

2. Utilize penetration aids to defeat U.S. missile defenses.

3. Potentially install multiple warheads in one missile, or what is called multiple independent reentry vehicles, or MIRV technology. This would allow North Korea to fire one missile and attack multiple different targets thanks to having several different warheads in the nosecone of the missile.

Hwasong-16

New what appears to be Hwasong-16 ICBM

While North Korea’s growing missile capabilities are surely concerning, I would argue the bigger worry is the clear lack of any Coronavirus safety measures such as masks or social distancing where thousands of people congregated. This parade could end up being the ultimate super spreader event if just a few people were to be infected.

Kim Jong-un clearly has put his people and ultimately himself at great risk as North Korea has very few tools to combat such a deadly virus as its healthcare system is one of the worst in the world. Ultimately, this foolish display could test the regime’s stability if the virus were to spread far and wide–an unforced error of perhaps historic magnitude. There is no missile worth showing off worth such a risk.

Written By

Harry J. Kazianis (@Grecianformula) is Editor-In-Chief of 19FortyFive and President of Rogue States Project, the think tank arm of the publication. Kazianis recently served as Senior Director of National Security Affairs at the Center for the National Interest. He also served as Executive Editor of its publishing arm, The National Interest. Kazianis has held various roles at The National Interest, including Senior Editor and Managing Editor over the last decade. Harry is a recognized expert on national security issues involving North & South Korea, China, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and general U.S. foreign policy and national security challenges. Past Experience Kazianis previously served as part of the foreign policy team for the 2016 presidential campaign of Senator Ted Cruz. Kazianis also managed the foreign policy communications efforts of the Heritage Foundation, served as Editor-In-Chief of the Tokyo-based The Diplomat magazine, Editor of RealClearDefense, and as a WSD-Handa Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS): PACNET. Kazianis has also held foreign policy fellowships at the Potomac Foundation and the University of Nottingham. Kazianis is the author of the book The Tao of A2/AD, an exploration of China’s military capabilities in the Asia-Pacific region. He has also authored several reports on U.S. military strategy in the Asia-Pacific as well as edited and co-authored a recent report on U.S.-Japan-Vietnam trilateral cooperation. Kazianis has provided expert commentary, over 900 op-eds, and analysis for many outlets, including The Telegraph, The Wall Street Journal, Yonhap, The New York Times, Hankyoreh, The Washington Post, MSNBC, 1945, Fox News, Fox Business, CNN, USA Today, CNBC, Politico, The Financial Times, NBC, Slate, Reuters, AP, The Washington Examiner, The Washington Times, RollCall, RealClearPolitics, LA Times, Newsmax, BBC, Foreign Policy, The Hill, Fortune, Forbes, DefenseOne, Newsweek, NPR, Popular Mechanics, VOA, Yahoo News, National Security Journal and many others.

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