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Dr. James Holmes: The Naval Diplomat

Yes, Ukraine Could Beat Russia

Russia Ukraine Donbas
Russian TOS-1 flamethrower weapon. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Which antagonist—if either—will prevail in Ukraine?

The longevity and success of Russia’s offensive is a hot topic of debate among foreign-policy practitioners and the commentariat. Nor is it an idle topic. But beware of too-confident assessments. Canvassing military history indicates that campaigns tend to sputter over time. A campaign may stagnate, and reversals of fortune are far from rare. It takes not just a proficient military machine but leadership possessed of ingenuity and force of character to keep the momentum going, or regain it if it slips way.

So Russia isn’t predestined to be the victor over Ukraine even though it’s the stronger combatant—by far—by the numbers. Indeed, the Russian offensive has shown signs of faltering since day one. A lesser combatant that makes maximum use of its latent combat power can stymie an opponent that wastes its potential.

Ukraine has a chance.

Martial sage Carl von Clausewitz explains the rhythms of the battlefield in somewhat mystical terms, showing how military success relates to and helps bring about political success. The central idea he puts forward is the “culminating point,” the point at which the fortunes of war start to change for one or both combatants, sometimes in drastic ways. One antagonist’s relative strength may top out while the other’s bottoms out and starts to rebound. Or they may come to a crossover point beyond which the erstwhile stronger competitor is now the weaker.

First, there’s the “culminating point of victory.” Clausewitz posits that the attacker amasses initial supremacy in the military balance by virtue of surprise, the initiative, the prerogative to choose the initial point of impact, and so forth. At the same time, though, Clausewitz believes tactical defense is the strongest form of warfare. That being the case, he prophesies that the attacker’s military advantage will crest and start to dwindle over time. But because political advantage—bargaining leverage that goes to the likely victor—starts to ebb away after the culminating point, so does the attacker’s ability to impose its will on the defender.

Call it the Clausewitzian paradox. The attacker generally has to press its offensive beyond the culminating point of victory—its maximum margin of military superiority—to seize what it wants. But it’s in a weaker and weaker position as the offensive goes on. It takes masterful generalship to sustain the battlefield advantage long enough to pluck the fruits of war.

Politically speaking, Russia may already have culminated. Its failure to score the lightning triumph craved by President Vladimir Putin has stained Russia’s reputation for martial prowess. Fewer foreign leaders will fear Moscow’s threats in the future, or seek out support from what seems like an untrustworthy ally. Repute is everything in power politics, and Russia has damaged its brand.

Through its unprovoked assault, moreover, Russia stands revealed as a foe of small sovereign states everywhere, and as an unworthy steward of the U.N.-led world order put in place at San Francisco in 1945. It has outdone China for lawlessness, which is saying something nowadays. Russian arms may yet prevail in Ukraine by brute force. But Russia’s political standing has suffered—making lasting political gains elusive.

The defender also gets a vote on when the attacker’s fortunes culminate. It is possible that Russia overshot its culminating point of victory very early in the campaign, with an assist from an ornery home team. To its credit, the Ukrainian Army has refused to fight Russia’s fight. Rather than risk a conventional toe-to-toe engagement in which they might lose everything, Ukrainian commanders have resorted to irregular warfare—a strategy whereby the weak deliberately prolong the endeavor to sap the physical might and willpower of the strong. The longer the fighting drags on, the more intense the international opprobrium and, potentially, the greater the resistance to the war among Russians back home.

Some form of compromise peace might eventually result.

The defender’s allies and partners can also help nudge the aggressor past its culminating point of victory. International sanctions can degrade the aggressor’s stocks of warmaking materiel over time. Running in weaponry to arm the defender—especially antitank armaments in the Ukrainian Army’s case—helps even the balance of forces in a more direct way. Russia’s margin of martial superiority will wither in part, and with it Moscow’s capacity to win a convincing triumph in reasonably short order. Alliance management is crucial to Ukraine’s prospects.

The second type of culminating point Clausewitz espies is the “culminating point of the attack.” If the attacker surges beyond its culminating point of victory and keeps going too far, its margin of superiority will diminish by the day. Ultimately it will narrow to zero—and the attacker will find itself the weaker contestant, probably deep within hostile territory. If bargaining power flows from superiority on the battlefield, the erstwhile attacker will lose its ability to wrest away a favorable peace.

Now, It’s doubtful Russia will overshoot its culminating point of the attack in light of the massive resource disparity between the combatants. But it’s not impossible. George Washington’s Continental Army confronted such a mismatch during the early years of the War of American Independence, and yet the irregular approach coupled with deft alliance politics let the American colonists prevail after a lengthy struggle. Mao Zedong’s Red Army came back from its Long March, when Chinese Nationalist armies hunted the Chinese Communist Party almost to extinction. The odds are forbidding against Ukraine—but survival is a possibility.

So there’s a formula: spread out rather than mass forces, deny the aggressor a quick strategic victory, and court allies and friends able to influence the outcome. The ebb-and-flow dynamics of combat are what the strategist Edward Luttwak terms the “paradoxical” logic of warfare. Commanders’ tendency to overextend their forces sweeps the campaign past its culminating points; overstepping may bring on an “ironic” reversal of fortune. The victor may become the vanquished—or at least fall short of its political aims.

Commentators on the Russo-Ukraine war have been quick to make sport of Russian arms or to despair of Ukraine’s chances of survival against the Russian juggernaut. Clausewitz, Washington, and Mao would mock such premature, ahistorical verdicts on the conflict. In all likelihood, the coming weeks will witness ups and downs for both belligerents.

It ain’t over till it’s over.

A 1945 Contributing Editor, Dr. James Holmes holds the J. C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy at the Naval War College and served on the faculty of the University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs. A former U.S. Navy surface warfare officer, he was the last gunnery officer in history to fire a battleship’s big guns in anger, during the first Gulf War in 1991. He earned the Naval War College Foundation Award in 1994, signifying the top graduate in his class. His books include Red Star over the Pacific, an Atlantic Monthly Best Book of 2010 and a fixture on the Navy Professional Reading List. General James Mattis deems him “troublesome.” The views voiced here are his alone.

Written By

James Holmes holds the J. C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy at the Naval War College and served on the faculty of the University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs. A former U.S. Navy surface-warfare officer, he was the last gunnery officer in history to fire a battleship’s big guns in anger, during the first Gulf War in 1991. He earned the Naval War College Foundation Award in 1994, signifying the top graduate in his class. His books include Red Star over the Pacific, an Atlantic Monthly Best Book of 2010 and a fixture on the Navy Professional Reading List. General James Mattis deems him “troublesome.”

58 Comments

58 Comments

  1. Alex

    March 17, 2022 at 2:28 pm

    Author, look at the map of hostilities in Ukraine. You’re not 5 years old, I don’t believe you’re that stupid.

  2. Eric-ji

    March 17, 2022 at 4:16 pm

    Sitting here in the USA it seems to me the “ingenuity and force of character” is possessed by Ukriaine, its people and forces.

    While Russia may reduce the entire country to rubble, IMO Ukraine will prevail.

  3. A penny tossed to the wind.

    March 17, 2022 at 5:28 pm

    It certainly is conceivable that Ukraine can defeat the invaders.

    From afar, it depends on how much the Kremlin can bear to take. Russia as the article intimates is in tatters as a national identity.

    So what would that mean? Ukraine has to be able to withstand both personnel and psychic loss (morale). And the supporting West has to sensibly hold its line.

    You just never know. I think this war breaks new ground. It is, in spirit, one person against the rest of the world.

    (China’s leadership is not standing shoulder to shoulder, openly, on the battlefield.)

    Not so sure then that conventional studies of war wholly apply, if much at all.

    Conceivably, if Ukraine holds its courage, the Kremlin may well break, and at that point Ukraine could negotiate most of its land back if the Kremlin got back a major chunk of its international regard. That is, a new Russian leader presented a new Russian ethos and outlook.

    Possible. We don’t know what political agendas, new visions for the country, have been simmering in secret.

    There is, on that, historical precedent. New leaders have quickly and dramatically changed their country.

    This mongrel unleashing could very well catalyse a major change in Russia, if not only as reflection and equanimity of response to the major change it’s now undergoing, and feeling.

    None of this is showing as likely but it is possible.

    Somewhat towards that. I’ve not watched Russian state TV; President (sic) Putin may indeed speak often, to the Russian population, about spitting gnats out of his mouth. And for others to spit gnats out of theirs.

    If not, that speech would be massively startling.

    Nothing speaks more of ‘loss’ than when a leader loses it.

    I think, from that, domestically he’s brought upon himself a whole new world of pain.

  4. Jerry Glen

    March 17, 2022 at 7:55 pm

    If Ukraine prevails. Putin is finished. He may stay in power but without the fear and respect he so lustfully craves. The world will see the little man that he is. This in itself will drive him to isolation.

    It will be interesting to see how this affects Xi’s actions. He is of the same mold as Putin albeit with far more resources.

  5. A penny tossed to the wind

    March 17, 2022 at 8:35 pm

    To follow on with a couple of points. There are many vectors of influence bearing down upon President (sic) Putin. The combined effect of these is often assessed as additive. That is to say, fifteen different vectors equals a combination of fifteen.

    But I think this war is without precedent.

    In other arenas, where a large number of influential vectors bear upon a single individual, the combination of them creates a force greater than their one-plus-one addition.

    The combination itself creates new forces. The forces breed, if you like. So fifteen vectors begets fifty.

    Unusual and unknown, perhaps indeterminable, forces can come into play. It feels like those haven’t yet arrived though will.

    Military assessments can make reliable sense, but this war is only part military.

    Added to that, Putin has long been against the rest of the world. He was ‘one out’ in his dealings with the world, as he seemed to exhibit, his attitude and manner, for the last what, nearly two decades?

    So how would a person in that mental predicament feel self-value? I think he enjoys war, enjoys killing. And destroying. I think it makes him feel that self value. Moreso because it’s been locked away, suppressed from expression, for many, many months on wnd.

    I do think it’s not absolute. That he has a pragmatic component in his character. But what it means, if that’s an accurate assessment of him, is he’d give off those vibes. Those around him, in this most unusual conflict, would sense they’ve a person at the helm who would go to the extremes. Beyond, perhaps if not likely, than they would themselves.

    Imagine how utterly keenly focused on him those around him would be.

    (That’s another vector by the way.)

    So at a guess, the Kremlin is perhaps at heightened alert, which is not a place from which to make a decision. Too many things are flying around for them to see a clear path out of the situation themselves. If that’s roughly so, they won’t be like that forever.

    It’s just too early to call. Anything could happen, any second day.

    The only clarity presenting is that Vladimir Putin himself cannot win. He may make gains for his countryfolk of that general ideology, but he surely can’t gain from those personally because he’s a shot duck in the eyes of the world.

    There really is so much in the
    cauldron for Zelenskiy to keep believing.

  6. A penny tossed to the wind

    March 17, 2022 at 11:34 pm

    Finally, this. The wider-held belief including mine is that this conflict will be long and drawn-out.

    Let’s challenge that for a sec. If ‘conflict’ is measured by invasive war, and not guerrilla attack and defence as may come later once cities are held if so, then that invasive war is either more of the same or worse.

    Thus, as the “more of the same or worse” keeps going, and going, and going, the entire world minus the zealots are going to scream in unison one question:

    “What the f*** is wrong with the people in the Kremlin?”

    It’ll be those around Putin to whom the world’s hatred will focus (having accepted Putin is decrepit and given up on him). You can hear it: What is wrong with you for not stopping him! Are you ALL murderous?

    As that point approaches, each of those people around Putin who do not stop him ALSO begin losing credibility in the eyes of the world. Any leadership aspirations they may have are hugely compromised – none will be able to lead Russia out of its pariah-hood.

    That would mean that a protracted invasive war, of continual killing civilians, places extremely heavy pressure on those with Russian leadership aspirations to act.

    This could be a very different situation within a month, or less.

  7. M. Eiford

    March 18, 2022 at 12:43 am

    Alex: James is not stupid. He understand far more than a map that shows military actions.

    As for the Penney in the Wind,,,,I caught all three of them,,,,

  8. Slack

    March 18, 2022 at 4:09 am

    There’s a song, ‘Diana’, which has these 2 opening verses:I’m so young..and you’re so old.

    Biden ought to listen to ‘diana.’

    Songs and biden aside, the war is directly a manifestation of the adage “It is fear that guards the vineyard.”

    US & NATO have brazenly and in a very hitlerian manner encroached on russia’s security space, and moscow has lashed out.

    Rusdia’s action is why the vineyard’s very survival is only guaranteed by your concerns and fears, and these are what will guarantee ultimate survivability and final victory. Not empty words from your opponents.

    It has been proved correct in nam and afghanistan and will prove the same for the russo-ukraine conflict.

    Russia will in the end be victorious and will succeed in protecting the donbass and crimea peoples and ensure the security and integrity of its borders. Long Live the russian federation. Down with the aspiring globalist conquistadors !!!

  9. Dag

    March 18, 2022 at 8:31 am

    HA HAA HAAAA!! You sir an absolute globalist lying pig idiot if you honestly think Ukraine has a chance.

  10. LOVE LEGER

    March 18, 2022 at 9:44 am

    I really hates these commentaries quoting Clausewitz from people who should know better, Ukrainians and Russians are getting killed and mangled. The question that is appropriate is not whether Ukraine can win, Ukraine has already lost. Ukraine is a nation being pulverized by Russia and by its internal division. Ukraine will not survive this war. A lost for Russia would look like its withdrawal from Ukraine of its troops like it did in Afghanistan but even in this scenario Ukraine is a shattered nation. What does a victory for Ukraine look like? Russian troop withdrawal from Ukraine even in humiliation is not a victory for Ukraine. It might be a victory for the West but not Ukraine. The destruction of Ukraine begins with the destruction of its social fabric. Namely, the long running Civil War between its ethnic Russians and the Ukrainian nationalists. This is the proximal cause of the war not the NATO nonsense. Russia use this to intervene in Ukraine. Withdrawal of Russian Troops would leave a heavily armed Russian Separatist movement in the Donbas that can continue the war in perpetuity with support of Russians in Russia proper. This is the Failure of Leadership of Ukrainian leaders including Zelensky, the latter is to be forgiven because he was a comedian. This intellectual fantasy of Clausewitz etc. is juvenile college term paper stuff. In any resolution of the conflict, half of the country, from the Russian border to the Dnieper river is lost to its 40% Russian speaker and from Crimea to the Belarus is gone. Whether the now rump state of Ukraine hold its capital Kiyv is irrelevant, that city will be pulverized with half its population already refugees. What does it win in a win in such a scenario? The best that can be hoped for in a Ukraine is some sort of power-sharing arrangement to maintain the current Ukraine. James Holmes is a smart man but this is an article that assumed that Ukraine was a united country invaded by another country. This was not the case for Ukraine. Ukraine had been divided from the Donbas to Kramatorsk prior to the war and its Crimea was gone. The war will only lead to loss of territory from Kramatorsk to Kiev.

  11. Alex

    March 18, 2022 at 11:27 am

    M. Eiford: That’s because you have such a mindset that you will never defeat Russia.

  12. Bertram

    March 18, 2022 at 12:23 pm

    I would never have expected it in the early days of the campaign, but Ukraine does have an increasing chance of victory.

    Putin’s power was based in the perception of the strength of the Russian military, and his own image of strength and ruthlessness that made resistance futile.

    Ukraine has exposed both of these as false.

    The Russian military is nowhere near as effective as western analysts expected. With their numbers they should have easily been able to take the capital in days. Instead, they are sputtering, and their dead soldiers and even generals are piling up while Ukrainians continue to score victories against their stronger foe.

    Putin, full of determination and calculating coldness at the beginning of the campaign begins to look frightened and desperate as he increasingly orders attacks on civilian targets, not to achieve military goals which have eluded him, but to terrorise the population into submission. Except it hasn’t. The population isn’t scared of Vladimir Putin anymore. They are just angry. And angry men and women pick up weapons when Russian troops appear near their village. They don’t run.

    Increasingly, Putin resorts to terror because his military has not been able to achieve its goals, and the more they get bogged down, the less fear people have of them.

    Ukranians and western countries are discovering that the Emperor has no clothes.

    Ukraine can win simply by not giving up. Russia does not have the resources to continue the war on the scale they had been waging it, and surprisingly, the sanctions imposed will have an increasingly devastating impact on the Russian economy, further damaging their ability to fight a resistant Ukraine, and their willingness to pay the increasing price for attempting it.

    Putin may have bitten off more than he can chew and in exposing the secret of the weakness of the Russian military for all to see, has committed the cardinal mistake of the arrogant summed up by the old saying.

    “Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt”.

    Putin has removed the doubt that existed about the strength of Russia, and it will only get worse from here.

  13. Alex

    March 18, 2022 at 12:57 pm

    Bertram: Are you not embarrassed by the map of military operations, which every new day shows the successes of the Russian army?
    You do not know that weapons of great power are not used because the Bandera Nazis hide behind the inhabitants as human shields? They are not even allowed out of the cities through humanitarian corridors. Guess why? It’s impossible that you don’t know this. Of course, you can win the war in a day. Take and drop cluster bombs, napalm or even nuclear bombs on cities, because all these methods were used by the United States. But Russia is not the United States, therefore, it frees its brothers not by killing civilians, but by clearing every kilometer of Bandera Nazis. I am sure that not a single army of the West is capable of this.
    If you do not have the information, then just keep silent so as not to look extremely stupid.

  14. Bertram

    March 18, 2022 at 1:35 pm

    No, I am not embarrassed by the map showing the progress of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I am however quite surprised by it, particularly the lack of Russian advance compared to prior expectations.

    The invasion “should” be over now. It is not.

    Many Ukranian civilians have fled the attack. Almost 3.5 million refugees have ended up in the neighboring countries of Poland, Romania, Moldova, Slovakia and Hungary. For some unknowable reason though, only 5% of that number have chosen to flee to Russia, and the equivalent of the audience for an amateur football game has ended up in Belarus. My guess is that this disparity in destinations has something to do with the desire for safety. It is an open question how many of that 5% ended up in Russia solely because Russian troops prevented them from heading in any other direction. The “humanitarian corridors” Russia tried to impose that lead only to Russia. Come visit my web said the spider to the fly.

    If Russia wants to avoid killing its civilian “brothers” in Ukraine, then that is another failure of the invasion, because you are doing quite a bad poor job in that.

    As they say though, if you only hurt the ones you love, then you love your Ukranian brothers far too much. They might prefer you love them a bit less. Truth be told, they are just not that into you.

  15. Alex

    March 18, 2022 at 2:21 pm

    I am neither Russian nor Ukrainian. But the facts are as follows: several million Ukrainians moved to live in Russia, now they are filming their videos there and are amazed that they were shown Russia differently than it really is. Who banned humanitarian corridors to Russia? Ukraine has done it. Their corridors lead to Kyiv and other cities that are surrounded. What for? To have more people who can hide behind the Bandera Nazis. It’s just obvious. If a Ukrainian wants to flee to Russia, then who has the right to forbid him? This is a terrorist tactic.

    All that the Kiev authorities now want is as many civilian casualties as possible. Let’s remember Berlin or Chechnya. Even the Nazis and the Mujahideen released civilians from the cities. But Bandera Nazism is special – the most cruel and merciless in the world.

    I hate them for the Volyn massacre, Lvov pogroms, etc. Read what they did to people. There are documentary photos. They began to do the same in the Donbass. If I hate the Bandera Nazis and know so much about them, do you understand what my nationality is? I am not a fan of the Russians, but if they carry out the denazification of Ukraine and cleanse it of Bandera Nazis, I and many of my countrymen will say – Glory to Russia!

  16. Bertram

    March 18, 2022 at 2:50 pm

    You claim to be Polish.
    What are your feelings on the Katyn Forest massacre carried out by the Russians in 1940?

    Ukraine has not banned humanitarian corridors to Russia. They simply rejected the Russian proposal that the ONLY humanitarian corridors to be allowed would funnel refugees into Russia. According to your map, Russians control most of the border areas with Russia. Any Ukranian refugee fleeing the Russian invasion who wants to can cross into Russia and Russia can provide that passage whether Ukraine approves or not. Ukrainians are focused on shooting Russians trying to come in. They are not concerned with who leaves.

    It is very clear who you hate but I don’t think you really do understand the similarities between communists and fascists. Most Poles have no trouble understanding this.

    There was an old Polish joke. A polish soldier is in a trench with only one bullet, and a Wehrmacht soldier is attacking from the West, and a Soviet/Russian soldier is attacking from the east. Who does he shoot.

    Answer: The German. Business before pleasure.

    If you asked that joke today, I suspect the answer would be Russia. The NAZI’s moved East, and Putin, if not quite Hitler, is a reasonable facsimile for Mussolini.

  17. Alex

    March 18, 2022 at 3:35 pm

    That’s why I wrote that I’m not a fan of Russians. If I choose between evil, then I will choose the best. In this case, the Bandera Nazis are not even animals. They are the fiends of hell. After all, I advised you to look at the photo of what they did. Do Russians have this? No.

    30 humanitarian corridors were proposed, of which only a third led to Russia. I repeat once again: the humanitarian corridors approved by Kiev do not lead FROM hostilities, but to the very center of hostilities. What for? It’s obvious!

    Fascism, Nazism and Communism are very different ideologies. Again, we choose the best from the worst: communism said that every person has equal rights, regardless of nationality, religion, etc. But it is better to ask China where there is communism now.

    I never heard: why did the West go blind when Ukrainians were killed in Donbas 8 years ago? The Ukrainians asked everyone for help. But only Russia came to save them, which could no longer look at the genocide of the Slavs. And suddenly the West began to yell about “terrible” Russia and spread false information. This is so strongly reminiscent of the methods of Goebbels.

  18. Bertram

    March 18, 2022 at 3:58 pm

    “I’m not a fan of Russians”

    Well, I’ll grant you do an excellent job concealing this.

    You might want to check in with management before you criticise China too much. You don’t want to get too far out over your skis.

    Unfortunately, when debating with someone who is saying things that are simply false, it adds little to the conversation to simply say “that is not true” over and over again. So I will leave it at that.

  19. Alex

    March 18, 2022 at 4:17 pm

    Here are my statements, for which I am ready to answer, but you have not written anything about them:

    1. Have you seen documentary photos about the actions of the Bandera Nazis during the Second World War?
    No answer.

    2. Differences between Nazism, fascism and communism – which of them divided people into races, peoples, religions, etc.?
    No answer.

    3. Where did I criticize China? I said that in China now communism. There has been no communism in Russia for over 30 years.
    No answer.

    4. Why is the West silent about the terrible crimes of Bandera Nazis in the Donbass, which took place there for 8 years? Why is there not a single article about how quite recently the residents of Donetsk were collected in the city center with a false SMS and they were killed by Tochka-U from the territory of the Nazi gangs in Ukraine? It’s hard not to notice, but you’re blind to it.
    No answer.

    5. Why is Ukraine supplied with lethal weapons from NATO countries when more Ukrainians die from it than the Russian army? Many fakes have already been exposed when Bandera Nazis shelled residential buildings and tried to pass it off as shelling by the Russians.
    No answer.

    There is no answer to anything from “democracy”.
    And I have an answer – all these answers will never be voiced, because the US and Britain are extremely unprofitable.

  20. Joe Comment

    March 18, 2022 at 4:21 pm

    Love Leger: The Russian invasion does not have much popular support even among the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine. A Ukrainian victory means Putin must admit that “Ukraine is a real country.”

  21. mawendt

    March 18, 2022 at 6:49 pm

    I’m thinking the ‘will to fight’ is apparent in this conflict, both in the commitment of the combatants military will to fight and national will to support the fight.

    It seems clear to me that the Russian military does not have the military will needed to win, the willingness to risk, sacrifice, and die to subordinate Ukraine to Putin’s will. Evident by casualties, lack of motivation, and media anecdotes about the absolute confusion and shock captured Russian soldiers have about being the belligerents without understandable cause against a nation with whom they have so much in common. There are just too many stories of Russian soldiers undermining their leaderships intent by sabotaging their own vehicles, dropping out of communications, or simply taking (or making up) the first excuse to avoid a fight.

    It also seems that the Russian people were blindsided and are not supportive for many reasons, and as the conflict continues, more civilians will challenge the government, including civilians within the Russian government.

    When your people and your military and people within your government and leadership so very quickly work against a conflict, you are done. SO, Russia is done.

    Ukraine seems to be the opposite: their military appears motivated, seizing opportunities at all echelons, in a defensive stance as well as using non-regular tactics (not to take terrain, but to cause casualties and material damage), further draining Russian soldiers will. The Ukrainian civilians appear supportive of their military and government, even to the point of making it clear to Russian soldier that they are not welcome, go home at their own personal risk. When sweet little Babushka gives you a scolding for what you are doing *in your own language* it makes an impact.

    Finally, Ukraine got most of the world on their side to provide start of the art weapons, supplies, medical material, and intelligence as well as sanctions that have crippled Russia. Even if the war ends now, it will probably take two decades for the Russian economy to get where it was before this war. Ukraine, on the other hand, will redoubtably receive a gazillion dollars from the West to rebuild their nation quickly.

    I’d guess each day Ukraine holds out, the more desperate Putin will become. Ukraine no longer has to beg for peace. In fact, Zelenskyy should be the one making demands: Russia, return your army home, no to Crimea and the breakaway provinces that belong to Ukraine, return any Ukrainians held against their will, and start paying reparations in gold. Each day you don’t do this, will cost you in a manner you cannot afford.

    The unknowable is this: Russia views nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons as weapons of war that may be employed if necessary. The West will only use that it retaliation. So what is Putin’s threshold, and what is the West’s threshold? That becomes the unknowable. Have much international personal and public embarrassment to Putin, to the Russian Government, the Russian People, and the Russian military will occur before Putin orders a withdrawal or starts the next world war.

    Putin could just as easily wake up tomorrow and say to himself – ‘Screw it, I’m done, the Russian people are crippled, so I’ll do the inevitable and take the Western world with me’.

    Mostly, right now, I’m thinking it’s the guy’s pride that will decide.

  22. Joe Comment

    March 18, 2022 at 7:08 pm

    Alex: Russians should know better than anyone that the position of the forces on the map alone can’t predict the outcome. Who was winning in September, 1812? Who was winning in November, 1942?

  23. Alex

    March 18, 2022 at 7:59 pm

    Joe: When I see a map of the fighting in Ukraine and the real facts, I just laugh at the childish propaganda about thousands of Russians killed. I do not wish death on anyone, but the Russians are doing their job in accordance with the plan by sending Bandera Nazis every day to hell with their leader. This makes me happy. I give 99.9% that the Russians will complete their operation as they planned it. Russia loses only in one thing – in the information war. But it has always been so. And then everyone knelt before Russia. This is history. And the will of the peoples who inhabit Russia. I have never seen such warriors anywhere. USA, Britain, Japan – it’s just ridiculous. I have seen what a Russian warrior can do. But the main thing is how they feel the Nazis and deal with th
    em. That’s the only reason I say – Glory to Russia! If you want a war with Russia, put on diapers, at least for the first couple of hours. Run away anyway. And the planes that the United States is so hoping for will be shot down by air defense.
    The US decided early on to get into the fray. The US has no superiority anywhere near Russia’s borders. It will be just a failure of the USA. Being in hysterics, the United States will start a nuclear war and the continent of S. America will be sent to the bottom of the ocean. Everyone understands this, except for the fools who write their false articles here and the crazy old idiots in the US government.

  24. Alex

    March 18, 2022 at 8:01 pm

    North America.

  25. Jacksonian Libertarian

    March 18, 2022 at 8:23 pm

    The Fact that the Russians have stopped, when they supposedly have overwhelming power, is direct evidence that they were stopped by a power equal to theirs. I believe the Russian military to be a hollow force, and are being destroyed (3 to 1) by the Ukrainians. I can’t think of anything that would have stopped the Russians except that the Ukrainian numbers of dead, destroyed, and captured are mostly correct. Like the Red Coats facing a Rifleman behind every tree. The Russian armor faces an Anti-Tank missile behind every tree. Man portable guided missiles are doing for the Ukrainians, what rifles did for the Americans 245 years ago. And I predict the results will be the same with a Ukrainian victory and Freedom from Authoritarian Russia.

  26. Alex

    March 18, 2022 at 9:01 pm

    Jacksonian Libertarian: Yes, Russia does not destroy everyone in a row, like the United States. Russia does not use cluster bombs, napalm, uranium shells, nuclear weapons, as the United States did. A sign of strength is the cleansing of the territory with the least losses among the civilian population. But you don’t know that. If Russia does this with its brothers in Ukraine, this does not mean that this will be the case with the Western world. Think about it, mama’s boy.

  27. A penny tossed to the wind

    March 18, 2022 at 9:13 pm

    M. Eiford, unfortunately the pennies take a bit of time to wind up and toss. Sorry about that. Am trying to keep it brief.

    How’s this for a summation from afar:

    * The position of leader of Russia is now a lava hotseat. The focus of world hatred. None in the Kremlin would want to sit in it (an immediate coup).

    * A new Russian leader of the same ideology cannot rescue Russia’s fall from the world.

    * A new Russian leader, however, of a different ideology, a different outlook and manner of engaging the rest of the world – and stressing that this bears no loss Russian culture – doesn’t have before them a hotseat of pain to step towards. It is instead to him (it’ll be a man) a hotseat of opportunity.

    * As time rolls on, and, as expected, civilians continue to be killed – whether on purpose or not, rightly blamed or not – the opportunity for a new Russian leader to rescue the Russian identity minimises. The window of opportunity begins to close.

    * Meanwhile, as Vladimir Putin remains in the lava hotseat, Kremlin scrutiny of him intensifies. This is, from the perspective of leading a war effort, the ever worsening worst possible situation from which to make decisions. Mistakes are a given. His personal support wanes. Genuine support cannot be ascertained by him. He is without trust. Information becomes suspect. Mental pressure causes fatigue and loss of clarity of thought. A major mistake is always imminent.

    * The above then compounds on itself.

    How’s that?

  28. Alex

    March 18, 2022 at 9:28 pm

    Penny, can you do something other than propaganda? The entire Western world has been hearing for 30 years that Russia is finished. The entire Western world predicts the end of the presidents of Russia. And what is the result? The West has received and is receiving in the teeth from Russia. Russia is developing and has overtaken all countries of the world in military-technological terms. According to the UN, Moscow is recognized as the city with the highest standard of living and the most developed infrastructure in the world. Many large cities of Russia do not lag behind Moscow. So I was in Russia 2 months ago, and you? Russia’s major cities are better developed than many US and EU cities. What do you say to that? More than 80% of the Russian population support their government and are ready for anything. Doesn’t this remind you of anything? Here it is – reality. And fantasies are funny.

  29. Stefan Stackhouse

    March 18, 2022 at 10:21 pm

    One important fact that, surprisingly, has not been mentioned at all in the media:

    Ukraine has yet to land a single blow against Russian territory.

    Ukraine may indeed succeed in fighting the Russians to a standstill, and may even succeed in pushing them back. I guess that counts as a “victory” – sort of, as long as you don’t pay any attention to the graves or the rubble.

    Were Russia to be bloodied as much as Ukraine is being, then this would be a fundamentally different conflict. Indeed, it may be argued that Ukraine’s lack of a capability to take the fight to the enemy is a primary reason why Putin felt confident enough to undertake this aggression in the first place.

    This is why the talk about Putin moving on from Ukraine to NATO members is so wrong. Unlike Ukraine, we have the means to hit back – hard. We will not hesitate to do so, either. Putin knows this, or should if he has any shred of sense left. This makes all the difference in the world.

    Getting back to Ukraine: We have been so careful to limit our aid to “defensive” weapons. One does wonder: what difference might it make if Ukraine acquired the means to begin dishing it out as well as just taking it?

  30. A penny tossed to the wind

    March 18, 2022 at 10:29 pm

    Alex, what I say to that, overall, is it is truly wonderful.

    I mean that sincerely.

    What concerns me, as it does within Russia, is that this invasion by the singular personage of Vladimir Putin has – rightly or wrongly – sent the greatness that is the Russian nation to the depths of depravity and regard.

    This is about being pragmatic. By all means say that the West is at fault in having arrived at that regard. That’s your view and you are wholly entitled to it. I support your right to that view.

    But it doesn’t change the situation Russia is suddenly now in.

    Perhaps you feel the Russian nation can in effect throw up walls and keep the rest of the world out. I don’t know. What I do know is Russia is a nation of the world and will remain so.

    I want to see Russian culture live on and thrive. It is unique. It is an incredible and irreplaceable gift to the world.

    The problem we are all facing is that current Russian leadership is diminishing the Russian nation in the eyes of the world.

    So what would you wish to have happen? A fight over what caused it? Or a discussion from which we can all learn?

    I understand that Vladimir Putin reflects and represents your view. The question is how successfully is he doing it?

    What I hope is that you see I am supporting the tremendous quality of Russian culture, and achievements. I want to prevail. I don’t want to see it sent to the depths. I want to see it prosper and live in peace in the world, where – because of an environment of peace – Russian culture can be shared and enjoyed, and thereby more greatly respected.

    War does not achieve that.

    You will have seen my comments are also critical of Western leadership.

    West and East both need to dial down the heat, to learn from our internal failures and from what we each can teach each other. The latter there I see as lessons taught by example, not by forcibly impressing them on each other.

    The peaceful way, please be assured, does not fortend a loss of culture. Far from it. The opposite, in fact.

    Your view on Vladimir Putin is different from mine. As citizens of the world we can each have a view. My view is that everything you have eloquently mentioned, as mere tiny summary of the great nationhood of Russia, is threatened and jeopardised by him. Perhaps it wasn’t so previously, earlier, but it is now, as I see it. Every leader comes to their end, in any case.

    Try, if you wish, to see that I would like to see a more peaceful world, with nations and their people – our fellow world citizens – feeling more peaceful and happier, and not dying and being dismembered, within it.

    Up to you where you see the “propaganda” in that.

    Best wishes, and I support your voice and the free and open forum right here within which you can so express it.

  31. A penny tossed to the wind

    March 18, 2022 at 10:45 pm

    (typo. “I want to prevail” above to Alex should of course read “I want it to prevail”)

  32. Alex

    March 18, 2022 at 11:06 pm

    Dear Penny, I understand that you have your own point of view about the President of Russia. I am talking about the fact that he is supported by the people of the Russian Federation and the people of Russia are now living well. Let’s not talk about the beggars, the homeless and other asocial elements that exist in any country in the world.

    Before demonizing Russia, one should ask the question: why did the West turn a blind eye to the torture and murder of Ukrainians in the Donbas for 8 (!!!) years? Well, it’s definitely not Putin’s fault. I ask everyone to see documentary photos of the Volyn massacre and photos taken in the Donbass. Horror films are just a children’s fairy tale compared to what the Bandera Nazis did. But no one answers me and tries to turn the conversation to the fact that it was all Russia that made them do it.

    I have never seen a more ridiculous excuse. It turns out that Russia forced people to be cut because people have a different language, a different ethnic group, a different faith? How 80 years ago, and now? This is Nazism. By the way, the SS detachments could not look at the atrocities of the Bandera Nazis, which is reflected in historical documents. Doesn’t this suggest that NATO has chosen the wrong side now in Ukraine? But we are not stupid people and we perfectly understand who and for what purpose arranged all this in Ukraine. Well, do not talk about the fact that it is beneficial to Russia. Economically, politically, reputationally. we know that this is beneficial only to a country that is very far across the ocean and which has big problems and only a war can hide them at least a little away from its borders.

    Yes, Russia will take its own and win. But it will cost a lot and Russia and the EU and the US. The main thing is not to turn everything into a third world war. We all understand everything, let’s be honest at least with ourselves.

  33. A penny tossed to the wind

    March 19, 2022 at 2:06 am

    Alex, you have a beautiful command of the English language and have expressed your views eloquently above.

    Hopefully you will receive an alternative viewpoint, and supportive viewpoint, from others, and enjoy examining further yours and others thoughts, and, (what interests me) how people think.

    My very basic response to what you’ve said goes like this: If only your president could manage such a tone of voice, and such a manner of expression, as you have in your comment above.

    I have watched many interviews by Vladimir Putin, and other ways he has engaged with the world, and my viewpoint as expressed here by way of an assessment of events is formed in many ways by not only what he says but also his style and manner.

    Because your views seem to align with his it might be a bit harder for you to see what I see.

    Where, for instance, you may see passion and strength, I see combativeness and anger.

    So my viewpoint is this … as a president, as representative of the great nation of Russia, he’s been an absolute shocker.

    I do not find in him a joy. I do not find in him greatness of thought, such as great leaders of the world possess, whereby they situate their nation within the family of world nations. He gives me no reason, by the way he represents Russia, as it existed and he wishes for it to exist, as a place to like.

    Russia itself, as a great nation, does give me a reason to like it. But not he.

    Naturally, there are Western leaders like this too. This is not about East and West. This is about the representation of a nation through its lead person.

    He explains, but he explains as though to combat, to fight, not to share and enlighten.

    It also comes across as though he wishes to dictate to world citizens, not just dictating to Russians over which his governing construct presides. Doing that creates only a negative response. It’s not learned, in how to engage personally.

    He has alienated people the world over.

    Please don’t take it personally. You are not him, and he is not you, though your views align.

    There is no world love for him, and he has given reason after reason, by his combative and angry and dictatorial style of engagement, to dislike him, and for many, that dislike is intense.

    So my viewpoint is that, outside of Russia, he has done you no favors. And that is to be polite. Please don’t make excuses for his style and manner. His behaviour is his own. I can assure you that another personality, another style of personal engagement with the world, would have worked wonders.

    This is in part why, right now, he has arrived at this point of being hated the world over.

    Let me say it again politely, please. Vladimir Putin, in the eyes of the world, good citizens, has done you and your nation no favors.

    You have raised sensibly matters that are specific, being of concern you, and I do hope you have them addressed and shared. I have merely tossed another penny to the wind, dear Alex, with Russian culture and countryfolk at heart.

    Go well.

  34. Peter Schiavo

    March 19, 2022 at 2:28 am

    Whether you are on offense or defense you have to maintain reserves. Reserves reinforce a faltering offense or defense, or reinforce progress on offense or enable a defense to counterattack, or finally to sustain an offense/defense that is weakening through normal combat friction. Armies melt away if they are not constantly reinforced. One of the factors that prolonged the war in Europe during WWII was the German’s practice of always and everywhere maintaining reserves at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels.

    If you look at the current conflict in Ukraine it appears that the Russians held nothing or very little back. They committed everything available in order to be able to attack on multiple fronts. Their plan hinged on the Ukrainian forces collapsing very quickly with a Russian coup de main on Kiev decapitating the political leadership.

    When this initial coup failed, any competent general staff officer, which the Russian higher military academies produce regularly, would know the entire effort was in doubt.

    The problem then becomes how do you communicate that doubt to the upper levels of the Russian government. How do you get them to accept that the problem exists, agree to narrow the focus the war to capturing Kiev/Kharkov, and then how do you successfully realign your forces to face the new reality.

    Ultimately the problem comes down to Russia didn’t have enough forces to prosecute this war. They compounded that with dispersing their forces around the entire perimeter of Ukraine. So that battlefield success or failure could not be reinforced or mitigated.

  35. Alex

    March 19, 2022 at 10:43 am

    Dear Penny, English is not my native language and I know it exactly as much as I need. I am fluent in Polish, Serbo-Croatian, Russian and some German.

    I like to look at situations from the outside. I don’t admire Putin the same way I don’t admire Biden. As I wrote above, I choose the best of two evils. So over the past half century, the United States has killed disproportionately more civilians than Russia and covered up its actions either by the need for democracy or by biological weapons. Remember the famous test tube that turned out to be a lie? And no one condemned the United States, no one was punished for war crimes.

    On the other hand, when I come to Russia, I see how people treat their government and these are not the small opposition rallies that the propaganda media feeds you with. It reminds me of the situation of the last century, when every resident of Russia was ready to go to the end. And at this time, some old and sick people decided to poke the bear with a stick again. And so that there are no illusions about my attitude towards Russia, I would recommend looking at the map where Poland is located. And also find out what is in it from the USA. Yes, I don’t give a damn who wins in the third world, I don’t give a damn that in any case my Poland will be wiped off the face of the earth, like many countries in the world.

    I so persistently offered to read about the Volyn massacre and compare it with the facts in the Donbass, but I was not heard. Apparently, it is impossible to talk about what it is not profitable or forbidden to talk about. It’s a pity.

  36. A penny tossed to the wind

    March 19, 2022 at 11:09 pm

    Quick but no less sincere apology, Alex. I was under the impression you were Russian. Sorry. Hopefully you will have substituted my use of “your country” then to accurately and more respectfully (to you) mean to be “your sympathy’s country”.

    Your concerns are understood. If I may guess, it’s that the sheer impact of what’s happening in Ukraine has lessened the sense of immediacy to deal with your particular focuses just now.

    At the expense of taking up too mage page space, I can only again say that this is a war of lessons. I do hope, like you, your concerns are brought front and centre in their good time and are absorbed and considered, as with all citizens of the world in their own way – and no country’s leadership makes the same mistakes again.

    You mention Biden, let me please integrate that into a response that goes for all of the US presidents, and the unelected backroom that so insistently urges them.

    You’ll see in another response to you that in my opinion Vladimir Putin was a disaster for the Russian image, and what that causes, among other things, since the ending of the Cold War.

    I have a similar view on US leadership since then as I do with Putin. I don’t think US leadership made the right choices, (leaving aside personnel because that is a long comment) in how it responded to the ending of the Cold War. It was, to me, an attitude it assumed upon itself, and cause for great harm and future problems. It didn’t handle the break up of the Soviet Union, in attitude, well. So it was also for the US leadership primarily as with Russian leadership a failure in attitude and behaviour, and weirdly, in similar ways, as well as different.

    I’m not so sure that hurling, or even gently positing, one human tragedy, one failing of leadership of any country, against another, is going to be helpful. Acknowledging that there are failures all round is I think a good way to start, to begin the reflection and learning.

    There will be reflection and learning, the question only is how much and whether any learning is put into practice.

    Please know that you have provided your concerns with care and thought and that’s respected dearly.

  37. Alex

    March 20, 2022 at 12:10 pm

    It’s all right 🙂 When people say they support the US, they become Americans or Ukrainians. If they support Russia, they become Russians or Belarusians 🙂

    The fact is that if Russia is visible who leads, then in the United States, in my opinion, the real rulers are in the shadows.
    The war in Ukraine has been prepared for a long time, but one thing can be said for sure – the war is not beneficial for Russia either economically, or politically, or image-wise.

    If my country dies because of those who started it all, then who should I sympathize with? For those who benefit or for those who do not? That’s exactly why I have more faith in someone who only receives losses from this in all areas.
    Why, when Korea, Vietnam, Yugoslavia and many other countries were bombed, no one in the “civilized” world hung signs “No entry for Americans”? Why did no one deprive American cultural figures, athletes, etc. of their jobs?

    In our time, in the 21st century, you can find facts of applying the methods of Goebbels, Brzezinski and others like that. information warfare has always been one of the best weapons of the West.
    But there is a slight inaccuracy in Western propaganda: it was worth drawing lessons from history and understanding that the more the Western world tries to unite against Russia, the more the peoples within Russia unite, they grow faith in their leader and they are ready to follow him to the end. This is what the West does not understand. Specifically the United States and Britain. The people of the EU are unlikely to go to an open war of their own free will against Russia, because all these campaigns ended, to put it mildly, unsuccessfully. And there is the possibility of simply disappearing because of nuclear weapons.

    The US thinks they can sit it out across the ocean, but the new Russian military doctrine says that nuclear strikes will be delivered first of all to the decision-making center, and these are points in the US, London, Brussels, and then cities and military installations on the territory of countries who agree to aggression. As I said, I don’t care who settles scores with whom. The important thing is that there is an opportunity to cease the existence of my people and many, many peoples on earth as a whole.

    In any case, Moscow is closer than Washington. And no one can protect us. We all understand that 70 US interceptors will at best be able to intercept 50% of nuclear missiles over their territory. 35 missiles out of several thousand. A terrible number. Then no one will care about my country. My country will be indifferent to everyone.

  38. Zerm

    March 20, 2022 at 1:02 pm

    Oh, please. Alex is a Russian, there is no doubt about it. You do know that the Russians have a program to enter comments sections and push Russian propaganda points. That is all Alex has done.

  39. Alex

    March 20, 2022 at 8:09 pm

    Zerm: Let me be Russian, I don’t care what third-rate liars think. But on the other hand, I’m telling the truth, and not inventing any nonsense 🙂

  40. A penny tossed to the wind

    March 20, 2022 at 9:54 pm

    There’s an art to commmentary, Alex, if one would have it, to be effective. In any case, “compulsive” commentary soils the page, and the words no longer read, we just move on, and the comment and responses ignored – including to this one.

  41. Лилия

    March 22, 2022 at 12:29 am

    Is this a collective auto-training for you? If you repeat 5000 times that you win, will you win? Not so on the battlefield – tactical, logistical, military and numerical advantage. Russia has all this. And you have the opportunity to pretend that you at least understand something. Shame!

  42. Eric

    March 23, 2022 at 4:19 pm

    Alex and the Kremlin allies are “Sealioning” here and elsewhere.

    Sealioning is a harassment tactic by which a participant in a debate or online discussion pesters the other participant with disingenuous questions under the guise of sincerity, hoping to erode the patience or goodwill of the target to the point where they appear unreasonable.

    This entire Kremlin disinformation campaign makes me think about what a Ukrainian person told me: “In general people in Europe and the USA have a lot of stereotypes about russia. The main thing people should understand that the russians always lie. The lie about their history, about their economy, about their role in World War 2, about their military forces nowadays, about their culture, about their language – they fake everything.” I think this person spelled Russian with lower-case “r” intentionally.

  43. Alex

    March 24, 2022 at 10:33 am

    s I understand it, Eric did not communicate with a Ukrainian, but with one of the peoples inhabiting the western part of Ukraine. Basically, up to 85% of different nationalities live there that have nothing to do with Ukrainians or even Slavs in general. Although, perhaps, this is Eric himself and his rich imagination. It is those people who are followers of Bandera Nazism. So it happened historically, territorially, according to special ethnic groups, if you like. It’s no secret that lies are a tool of any Nazi regime, and Goebbels and some leaders of Western countries can be considered its father in modern history. Speaking about the Bandera Nazis, we can definitely say that the method of the last century “by accusing another of lying, you will hide your lie” is no longer valid. No matter how hard they try to hide the lie, no matter how close the truth is, the truth always comes to the surface. And the power is in Truth.

  44. Eric

    March 25, 2022 at 1:19 pm

    Out of curiosity I came back here to see what Alex has been up to. Surprisingly he has a lot of time on his hands to argue the same point of view as that of the Kremlin. Perhaps he is paid to do so, or perhaps he really believes what he writes.

    For obvious reasons, I will not tell where the Ukrainians are that I spoke to. Let us just know that Alex is incorrect in his assumptions about my acquaintance(s) in Ukraine. The accusation that Ukrainians are mostly Nazis and all these kinds of ridiculous accusations are lies that seem, in the mind of those who believe the lie, to justify Russian military aggression and the bombing of civilians in Ukrainian cities. The people I know from Ukraine are just normal people, who value their own freedom, who want to have normal relations with the rest of the world, who are not interested in sending armies into neighboring countries. They do want Russian military forces out of their territory and are willing to fight for that.

    In the case of U.S. aggression in recent years, I protested against the Iraq war and was engaged in the antiwar efforts here in the USA. Thankfully that terrible chapter is behind us but I understand U.S. imperialisms must be challenged as well. Perhaps both the USA and Russia should both join the ICC and have our leaders held accountable by the international community; this would be acceptable to me as I believe war criminals anywhere should be held to account.

    Alex, on this we agree: “No matter how hard they try to hide the lie, no matter how close the truth is, the truth always comes to the surface. And the power is in Truth.”

  45. Alex

    March 26, 2022 at 2:06 pm

    Eric, don’t flatter yourself. Just the majority of Ukrainians are NOT Nazis, but several thousand Zelensky’s militants are no longer able to scare the country. They fall one by one. I see how you have enough time to sit here day and night and under more than one name, so the question of who pays whom is obviously settled. I immediately see the Bandera Nazis and their supporters. You can talk as much as you like about “terrible” Russia, but the facts cannot be hidden: thousands of child deaths in the Donbass at the hands of Ukrainian bastards, millions of deaths at the hands of the United States only during the reign of three presidents. We all understand that a special military operation will end with a complete victory for Russia, and we also understand why it drives people like you crazy.

  46. Greekman

    March 27, 2022 at 6:23 pm

    With a few words:
    A) Russia, faced this operation like a walking in the rain.. Wrong!
    B) Having in mind the art of war, we bypass certain points like castle cities-which are useless-and we proceed at the real interest points! At the same time, we control the whole chessboard…
    C) I think there was sentimental problems with Russian Army. They are brothers to Ukraines. Some of their Generals maybe sabotaged operations!
    FSB leaks to enemy..
    D) Russia fights against Saxons who they have stick their nose deeply giving information in real time!
    But again, russian will win but with heavier losses. Cause there is huge military difference in power between these two.
    E) Putin, has to decide if he is going to hit in Poland the guns for Ukraine!! In this case, he will use, sooner or later, nuclear weapons.
    Usa, will have the most severe consequences! I think you know the reason. She has many geological weaknesses which can drive to horrible results. Russia, has not.
    Z) In case of engagement with NATO, we’ll see a very different Russia with all her power because now enemy is not her brothers anymore,but West! And that means she will fight like a mad dog!!! Without hesitation to destroy.
    H) I think Russia has more weapons than we saw in the last 15 years..
    Like plasma cannon! The first talked for it, was Zirinovski before 20 years and many American scientists understood that this cannon maybe its a reality!!
    I hope logic will prevail..otherwise many will die from both sides. But i sense that the deep American State,wants this war!!!
    Good luck, Greekman🇬🇷⚔️✝️

  47. Ki wa

    April 11, 2022 at 5:51 am

    1) Some 100 years ago we saw the Miacle on the Vistula. Again an example of Russian arrogance of their stupidity. Same situation of lack of effective control by a single over all commander as Stalin and company went gallivanting in an attempt for glory in Lviv (?) now we have a miracle on the Dneiper.
    2) if Russians are planning to use the remaining dregs and shreds of the forces routed out of western Ukraine by either reconstituting units or using them to fill out different units it shows that they have failed to learn the lessons of 1917 where demoralized defeated troops “infected” the new troops with that fear and resignation.
    3) like the last czar Putin took direct command/ authority over the army during initial attack (czar took command later) how did that work out?
    4) One more atrocity by Russia and I would think that putins tinker toy bridge over the stairs of Keresch might have a collapse because poor workmanship (corruption cutting corners) or maybe an Ukrainian missile attack? Maybe a combination of both.
    Legitimate target as sole supply line to supplying troops around the crimea front. Possibly close navigation the straights are relatively shallow for random steel nbeams piling up. Adde logistic problem for Russian in supplying Crimea by sit and whatever shipping stuck in the sea of azar.

  48. Alex

    April 11, 2022 at 10:28 am

    What are Bandera Nazis.
    Ukraine is preparing actions with “massive ruthless destruction of civilians” in the Lugansk People’s Republic in order to blame the LPR and the Russian military for this.
    A provocation is being prepared in the village of Ragovka in the Kiev region. The Ukrainian side is preparing a provocation there with the organization of staged filming of the search and opening of places of mass graves of civilians allegedly killed by Russian military personnel. And to increase the credibility, Kyiv plans to use the national police and forensic experts.

    This will be done in order to further accuse the Russian Armed Forces and the LPR formations.
    In other locations in the east, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing a provocation with shelling of ambulances. To shoot the provocation, journalists from Western publications have already settled in the Kremyannaya regional hospital.

    In Belogorovka, the Ukrainian side mined tanks with chlorine on the territory of the water canal.

    All that is left for the Bandera Nazis to do is to kill Ukrainians. They act in exactly the same way as their ancestors did, which, unfortunately, were not all destroyed after the 45th year of the last century. But everything can be fixed so that the Bandera Nazi hydra can no longer raise its head either in 50, or in 100, or in 1000 years.

  49. Eric

    April 17, 2022 at 3:49 pm

    Every accusation from the Russians is a confession.

  50. Alex

    April 19, 2022 at 10:33 pm

    And now it becomes very interesting. The devil shows his face. Bandera Nazis helped the United States in monstrous experiments.

    Russia submitted to the UN Security Council new documents on US biological laboratories in Ukraine.

    Evidence of military-biological activities on the territory of Ukraine in violation of the Convention on the Prohibition of Biological and Toxin Weapons is accumulating. Russia has circulated the relevant new materials as an official document of the Security Council.

    The commission is conducting a study of disease outbreaks that occurred on Ukrainian territory. It is obvious that Ukraine has become a laboratory of inhuman experiments for the Pentagon.

    Documents obtained during the Russian investigation confirm the close cooperation between Ukraine and Western countries in biological research on especially dangerous infections. The work was carried out despite the risks of a biological catastrophe in Europe.
    In the period from 2019 to 2021, American scientists tested potentially dangerous biological drugs on patients in a Kharkiv psychiatric hospital. In mid-March, documents from 2015 were released confirming the participation of the Pentagon in financing military biological projects in Ukraine.

    It was noted that a network of more than 30 biological laboratories has been formed in the country. In addition, the documents show Kyiv’s plans to use drones to spray deadly substances.

    Moscow will insist on reviewing the situation with biolaboratories in Ukraine within the framework of the United Nations Security Council and the Convention on the Prohibition of Biological and Toxin Weapons.

    Documents released in 2015 confirming the participation of the Pentagon in the financing of military biological projects in Ukraine

    Lies and propaganda only work for the first time, and then the truth comes to light. Once upon a time, on the territory of modern Ukraine, the Third Reich conducted experiments on Ukrainians and the Third Reich was helped by Bandera Nazis. History is cyclical. Now there will be a new sweep of the bastards.

  51. CK

    April 20, 2022 at 7:18 am

    Poor old Alex, copy+pasting comments in every thread, even old ones.

    Sadly its all the same drivel. Pathetic lies and see-through distortion, misinformation, and deflection. Different accounts, same script. “Nazis” – “Bandera” – “Pseudo-Historical Points” – “Ukrainians are killing Ukrainians” – “Russia doesn’t bomb civilians, ignore overwhelming evidence to otherwise” – etc etc etc.

    The man clearly shows sign of cognitive mental decline. Yes grandpa, the bandera nazis. Yes grandpa, milk is more expensive these days. Yes grandpa, kids music really is too loud. Yes yes grandpa, biological experiments in Ukraine, yes yes.

    Let’s get you your pills.

  52. Alex

    April 20, 2022 at 11:23 pm

    I like how the Banderko Nazi has already created a dozen nicknames and his ass is on fire – it’s great. And now some truth:
    The Russian army hit more than a thousand military facilities in Ukraine in a day.
    “The missile forces and artillery of Russia carried out strikes on 1,053 objects of the Ukrainian military infrastructure. Among them, 31 command posts, six warehouses of fuel and lubricants, 910 strongholds and enemy manpower concentration areas, as well as 106 artillery firing positions were destroyed.

    In turn, the operational-tactical and army aviation of the Aerospace Forces hit 73 military facilities during the night, including four command posts, 57 places of accumulation of manpower and Ukrainian military equipment, seven strongholds and four ammunition depots. Six tanks, nine armored vehicles and a battery of 152mm Msta-B howitzers were also destroyed.

    In addition, Russian air defense systems shot down two Tochka-U tactical missiles and six drones.
    In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 140 aircraft, 496 unmanned aerial vehicles, 253 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2388 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 256 multiple rocket launchers, 1029 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 2232 special military units automotive technology.

    These numbers are encouraging. The agony of the Bandera Nazis is getting brighter.

  53. CK

    April 21, 2022 at 12:09 am

    Alex, don’t be lazy. At least vary up your script a bit.

    89% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

    Exhibit A – the post above. It’s all just noise at this point. Classic Internet Research Agency tactic, fill the air with noise, not necessarily just untruths (although here Alex has been very generous) but so many views and numbers it becomes impossible to ascertain the truth.

    Though again even here, Alex is incapable of following simple instructions. His arguments and numbers are just so outlandish and r fetched they invite only ridicule.

  54. Alex

    April 21, 2022 at 12:56 am

    The victories continue:

    The city of Rubizhne near Lugansk came under the final control of Russian troops.

    The published video shows how the Russian flag and the Chechen flag with Akhmat Kadyrov are raised at the entrance to the city.

    The day before, the settlement of Kremennaya passed under the control of the LPR.

    Every day there is good news from the Slavic brothers who are destroying the Bandera Nazis.

  55. CK

    April 21, 2022 at 4:24 am

    The same Kadyrov that said he’d control Azovstal’s Plant by noon today, before Putin told him to cancel it because of excessive casualties?

    Hilarious!

  56. Alex

    April 21, 2022 at 10:50 pm

    According to statistics on April 21, since the beginning of the operation, Russia has destroyed Ukrainian equipment: 99% of tanks and other armored vehicles of Ukraine (2410 out of 2416 vehicles that were in Ukrainian troops on February 24), 92% of military aircraft (140 out of 152), 71% of the fleet helicopters (106 out of 149), 48% of MLRS installations (262 out of 535) and so on. This does not take into account the equipment that may have entered the Ukrainian troops after the start of the special operation, but in any case, the Air Force and Air Defense of Ukraine were practically destroyed, and the Navy ceased to exist.

  57. CK

    April 22, 2022 at 5:09 am

    Ah yes, Russian statistics. We have dismissed that claim.

  58. product review

    April 26, 2022 at 5:50 am

    Your logo looks awesome, can you tell me who made it?

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