Initial Results from the Battle of Donbas and What It Portends for the War’s Next Phase – When Russia redeployed tens of thousands of armored troops from the environs north of Kyiv and Sumy last month to the northern shoulder of the Donbas front, there was concern that the added manpower would produce an armored breakthrough of Ukraine’s lines. However, after almost three weeks of fighting, the Ukrainian troops have held the line.
Russia’s failure to affect a breakthrough represents a noteworthy accomplishment for the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF). Whether that initial success can carry Ukraine to an ultimate victory will depend on how several key factors play out in the coming weeks and months. The outcome of both the Battle of Donbas and the Russo-Ukrainian War are very much still up in the air.
What Russia Thought Going In
Russian military authorities likely expected to achieve a breakthrough in the northern shoulder of Ukraine’s defenses in the Donbas by this point – and failed. The reason is that Ukrainian troops continue to exceed expectations on the ground and Russian troops underperform (from inadequate/poor tactical pre-war training). In practical terms, however, the UAF’s successful defense results from the elaborate defenses Kyiv had ordered in the years since 2014.
The defenses in the Donbas include concrete bunkers, mutually-reinforcing positions, interlocking fields of fire, anti-tank mines, and pre-sited artillery targets on likely Russian avenues of approach. These defensive works and schemes have inflicted significant harm to attacking Russian troops and have been primarily responsible for preventing any penetrations thus far. This successful defense, however, has not been cost-free.
Putin Strikes Back
Russia has been pounding the entirety of the 300-mile front with relentless bombardments of heavy artillery, rocket fire, and air attacks virtually nonstop. Putin’s forces have emphasized attacking points south of Izyum, Kramatorsk, Severdonetsk, and Popsnya, pouring incredibly intense volumes of fire on the defenders in these areas. Such attacks have thus far not caused the line to break, but it is crucial to understand the men under this bombardment are not immune to the cumulative effects of so many explosions.
The Impact of Battle in Donbas
One of the most enduring consequences of America’s two-decade war in Afghanistan and Iraq was the soldiers – reportedly numbering over 400,000 – that suffered traumatic brain injuries from too much exposure to the enemy’s grenade, rocket, and mortar fire. The trench warfare of World War I – similar to the Battle of Donbas – inflicted what was known as “shell shock” on the troops by relentless artillery bombardment. On either side of the line, many of the soldiers became mentally incapacitated after too much exposure to the explosions. It is unknowable at this time when – or whether – UAF defenders could succumb to the bombardment and break, but the pressures and stresses are real and significant.
Russian troops, too, are subject to Ukrainian artillery fire, but apparently in lower volumes, and thus cumulatively would seem to have less risk of breaking over “shell shock” effects. But even if Russia does eventually grind down the UAF defenses and capture the Donbas, they will be a spent force and be incapable of continuing further to either take Odesa on the Black Sea coast or strike north to capture Kharkiv. To entertain any possibility of taking either city, Putin will have to do what he has thus far refused to do: mobilize some percentage of his reserve forces.
Russia for Mass Mobilization?
As Russian military expert Michael Kofman has examined in detail, mobilizing the country for open war against Ukraine would be necessary to free up or create new fighting formations to continue the war in Ukraine. Doing so incurs considerable political costs for Putin. But without mobilization, Russia might not capture the Donbas and definitely would not be able to carry the war further.
Russian artillery firing. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Putin, therefore, is fast coming to a critical decision point: a) hope he can capture the Donbas without mobilization using the troops he has and then declaring victory and ending the war there, or b) conduct national mobilization and add tens of thousands more combat troops to force a breakthrough in the Donbas, and potentially add yet more troops later and then move on Odesa or Kharkiv.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, for his part, has choices of his own to make. Ukraine gets large quantities of increasingly central weapon systems from the West, including heavy artillery, tanks, and long-range air defense missiles. In time, it is possible – though far from certain – that the UAF could develop an offensive capacity with enough new gear and trained troops to switch from defense to offense and attempt to drive Russia from Ukrainian territory.
Russian Military Artillery Piece. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Suppose Zelensky tries to order an offensive before creating sufficient new units? In that case, however, Ukraine runs the risk of suffering large-scale casualties as the Russian offensives have thus far endured. Ukraine’s most significant advantages presently are the result of prepared defensive positions; moving to the offensive would draw them out into the open, making them vulnerable to Russian armor.
Bottom line: Ukraine has been successful thus far in blocking Russia’s advances in the Donbas, and they will have a solid chance to continue that trend. But it is an open question about how long Ukraine can continue suffering casualties from the heavy firepower Russia pours daily on the defenders. War is ultimately a contest of wills. It remains to be seen who has the stronger will in the Donbas. We also don’t know who can most effectively endure the most casualties and who breaks first. Right now, the war could tilt in either direction.
Now a 1945 Contributing Editor, Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” Follow him @DanielLDavis1.
Peace-making nukes of US arsenal
May 5, 2022 at 6:46 pm
This conflict initiated by Biden and stoltenberg will end badly for europe as the situation on the ground turns into a quagmire.
Already, on May 4th, Kaliningrad practised some simulated nuclear strikes on imaginary targets and this is the prelude to the best move to ending the current quagmire.
Nuclear warfare using tactical nukes will silence the guns of the current conflict with europe getting hurled back to the flintstone age (where cars move by foot power !) and US looking for the next Marshall plan to rehabilitate the continent.Ww3 in Europe within the next 24 months, that’s inevitable.
h
May 5, 2022 at 6:57 pm
Yet another paid apologist for looting and pillaging hordes that invaded a sovereign country with a democratically elected government.
TrustbutVerify
May 6, 2022 at 9:58 pm
From your comment it doesn’t seem that you realize the Flintstones was a cartoon…with no..relationship to…the…real stone age.
Bill
May 6, 2022 at 10:18 pm
Your first four words showed me you are a wack-job.
Exnavynuke
May 6, 2022 at 10:26 pm
With respect sir, the only inevitability is our own individual mortality.
Please note that I’m not unilaterally discounting the use of battlefield nuclear weapons, nor the highly likely escalation that would immediately follow. I suspect the trigger point for Russia would be the Ukrainian military, buoyed by the utter crushing of the Russian expeditionary forces and massively augmented by the cream of Western military technology, smashing toward Moscow like Juggernaut.
Short of that, it’s likely the nukes will stay locked down; if not partially disassembled in their storage bunkers.
DavidC
May 7, 2022 at 4:48 pm
This is an article to sell more weapon systems to Ukraine, most of which never make it to the frontlines. There are a lot of people here in the US as well as Ukraine getting rich because of this racket. Below is what is really happening on the Ukrainian Donbas battlefront.
Russia and the Donask,Luhansk militias control all of the eastern and south eastern portions of Ukraine, NOW. From Kherson to Mariupol to Donetsk and closing in on Severodonetsk, Kramatorsk and Kharkiv. The first three areas, mostly Russian speaking, fly the Russian flag, use roubles with the entire administrative state in these areas being replaced by pro Russian people.
Once the Russian army takes care of the 30K+ Ukrainian troops in the Severodonetsk, Kramatorsk and Kharkiv areas with the thousands of pieces of artillery they have in the theater. They will turn their sites towards, Mykolaiv and then Odesa, annexing these regions thereby cutting off a rump Kyiv from accessing the Black sea. That is what is in Ukraines longterm future, they should have cut a deal with the Russians a long time ago.
Greg
May 8, 2022 at 3:50 pm
For all of you wandering – “DavidC” has just returned from a lengthy vacation on the shores of Baikal lake, where he had no access to the news for the last 2.5 months. He is unaware that Russian military has been revealed as a giant pile of shit.
Jimmy John Doe
May 5, 2022 at 6:57 pm
President Joe Biden has his calculus to ensure USA continues to remain top dog in the world extremely well and truly laid out
First, get the vassals to fight Russia, thus a greatly weakened Europe would not be in a position to disobey Washington.
Next, go to the far east, whip up the rhetoric on dangerous bogeymen and repeat the cycle.But here Biden faces a bigger obstacle.North korea is made of far sterner stuff than Europe or Russia and has nuclear weapons to back it up.
Here, in the far east, Biden will meet his end with ww3 finally reaching America’s shores unlike all the conflicts of the past.
It’s called karma by the likes of Sharon stone.
Joe Comment
May 5, 2022 at 7:11 pm
Jimmy John Doe: You imagine that Biden somehow made Putin start this war? How does that work? And if so, why didn’t he make Putin start a war against Iran instead?
reyol
May 6, 2022 at 4:35 pm
Biden and his handlers are not that clever.
Exnavynuke
May 6, 2022 at 10:27 pm
Ha! Reyol, that seems to be the understatement of the current century.
FRAZIER STALL
May 5, 2022 at 7:11 pm
Biden, in October 2002 voted for war on Iraq, a war that ultimately killed over a million Iraqis and unleashed a wave of suicide bombings and the rise of jihadist groups in the Middle East.
Fast forward to 2021, where in a march 2021 ABC interview Biden branded Putin a killer, forgetting his role in pressing the war on Iraq, and Biden vowed Russia would pay a heavy price for interfering in the US 2020 election.
Today, Biden is making Russia and putin pay for messing with US elections and Russian disinformation in the hunter laptop case. Unfortunately, Europe will have to pay, too, for the revenge by Biden.Clearly, biden’s brain don’t work too well in the late evening of his life.
ReCon
May 6, 2022 at 1:27 pm
Weird how predictably the US responds to nuclear threats and strikes on our own territory. I’m sensing a pattern. You?
Jack Wagner
May 5, 2022 at 7:20 pm
The Ukrainians will certainly go on the offensive soon making good use of better seasonal weather, a host of tanks and armor kept in reserve and supported with new toys from NATO & Co.. They will push back and bottle up the Russians in Crimea and then start to tighten the southern edge back towards Mariupol to counter any southern pincer towards the Ukrainian salient referenced in the article. That’s my take on things…and I predicted the last stand at Azovstal a month ago.
Commentar
May 5, 2022 at 7:35 pm
It is too early to make a conclusion on the war in Donbass as the battle lines are very close to civilian areas and massive firepower can’t be used especially the civilians are pro-russian.
The civilians need to be evacuated to Russia before all-out assault can begin.
However, the pressing need now is NOT to wipe out the azov and aidar nazists and israeli mercenaries immediately, but to hunt and destroy western arms supplies and arms depots.
Once the arms pipelines are cut off, the ukr fighters will have to plead with NATO to use nuclear bombs against Russia to save their skins.
Joe Comment
May 5, 2022 at 7:53 pm
Commentar: After what’s happened, you think any civilians there are still pro-Russian? You really need to get out more often from whatever information desert you must be living in.
from Russia with love
May 6, 2022 at 5:27 am
“You really need to get out more often from whatever information desert you must be living in.”
great idea 😉
“After what’s happened, you think any civilians there are still pro-Russian?”
the problem is that there, in Ukraine, people do not read articles by American journalists about the war, they are right in this war. people there clearly see that the Ukrainian “defenders” did not let them evacuate, drove people into the basement and organized firing points in the house and put a tank in the yard that shoots and hides behind the house. on the spot, people have no questions about who is to blame and why their house was destroyed.
get out of the information wilderness and see how Ukrainians are “glad” that Ukrainian troops are hiding guns behind their house and mining their yard. or you can’t show this because it is “Russian propaganda”? 🙂
Eric
May 6, 2022 at 9:55 am
The exact war crimes of Russians are being described by Russians but blamed on Ukrainians. It is the Russians who are committing war crimes.
from Russia with love
May 6, 2022 at 10:25 am
Yes Yes. certainly. the only way.
Ukrainian rocket Tochka U arrives from the territory controlled by Ukrainian troops, kills 50 civilians at the Kramatorsk railway station, but Russia is to blame for this.
how does it happen? it’s simple. here is another example.
The video with the stories of the evacuees from Azovstal was removed from the Spiegel website due to “inconsistencies”.
Another German publication Jungle Welt drew on this. In a three-minute video titled “I Thought I Wouldn’t Survive” published by Spiegel, a Mariupol resident described how Azov militants prevented their evacuation and kept them in bunkers.
She said that she decided not to return to Mariupol. “Ukraine is dead to me as a state,” she said.
Some time later, Speigel removed the video due to “belatedly identified content inconsistencies”.
Perhaps this is all you need to know about freedom of speech in the West.
But I understand you, you have something to be afraid of.Julian Assange faces 175 years in prison for speaking out about US war crimes.
ReCon
May 6, 2022 at 1:33 pm
“Did not ‘let them’ evacuate”, lol.
Well, perhaps they should have penciled that in prior to annexation.
Commentar
May 5, 2022 at 7:48 pm
It is strange that Russia is implementing a ceasefire in Mariupol for May 5,6 and 7.
What Russia should do is give a final ultimatum to surrender, after which gasoline bombs should be used on the holdout fighters.
This is what US and allies did in Mosul where as many as 40,000 people were killed in 2016-2017 in the determined campaign to wipe out ISIS fighters holed up in the city.
It was a no-quarter battle where coalition forces bombed and shelled the hell out of the city.A Dante’s inferno from hell, it was.
h
May 5, 2022 at 9:34 pm
As Putin said to Obama with respect to Russia’s involvement in Syria “I’m supporting the recognised government of Syria”.
Unlike in Syria, Russia is attacking the forces of the internationally recognised, democratically elected, government of Ukraine.
Your false equivalences are the errant nonsense of a paid shill.
Eric
May 6, 2022 at 9:57 am
USA did some bad things so Russia should do some bad things too? Do you see no problem with this argument?
MAGA MAGA
May 5, 2022 at 8:04 pm
The current fighting in Donbass is what the Pentagon has described as ‘shaping operations’ and both sides are probing for vulnerable points.
Once REAL fighting starts in Donbass, NATO will be greatly tempted to employ b61 nuclear bombs on Russian forces closing in for the ukranian army.
Washington will watch the fighting with great interest as European jets armed with b61 munitions strike Russia while Russia hits them in reply with nuclear kinzhals.
Nero plays his fiddle while Rome burns. True then, will be true in 2022.
Exnavynuke
May 6, 2022 at 10:36 pm
Wait, really? Did you honestly say NATO will use nukes pre-emptively? What, precisely, did you base this analysis upon?
I mean, c’mon. Currently, nobody else is kinetically involved in what is, effectively a proxy war. Going from supplying arms and equipment to actively utilizing the most destructive and fraught weapons in the known history of humanity seems to be a pretty big leap.
Francis Maikisch
May 5, 2022 at 9:08 pm
I’m still amazed at the Russians ineptitude.
Eric
May 5, 2022 at 10:47 pm
I’m only amazed by Russians’ ability to believe lies.
MAGA MAGA
May 5, 2022 at 10:47 pm
While fighting is STILL very much ongoing in eastern ukraine with thongs and hammers, knives and broadswords, Biden has been broadsided by events seemingly unconnected with his gamble in Europe.
US has just surpassed one million deaths from covid and stock bourses have plunged after weeks of artificial highs due to monetary tightening. Biden’s clearly counting a big win for large defense contractors due to massive airlifts of weapons to Europe, but who’s gonna pay for them.Hunter, or James or the long-suffering taxpayer.
In a few months’ time, world food stocks will be drawn to a minimum, and after that streams of hunger refugees (hundreds of thousands or a million or more) will march to the US southern border.
What will Biden do then.will he bludgeon them, whip their asses, or order national guard to fire and blow their heads off their necks.Biden very soon will be unlocking the GATES OF HELL for the southern border !!! Cheers, Biden.
h
May 6, 2022 at 3:57 am
Russia has stolen about 400,000 tonnes of grain from the occupied territories already, in particular from around the Kherson region.
Russian soldiers have also been stealing agricultural and farming equipment, and destroyed a modern silo complex, built in 2020, in Rubizhne, Luhansk, which could store 30,000 tonnes of grain.
You talk about food shortages arising from the conflict as if they are somehow something other than the fault of Russia?
from Russia with love
May 6, 2022 at 5:39 am
he writes about South America. open the map and see where is Mexico, where is Ukraine and where is the village of Rubizhne, which, by the way, is now being shelled by Ukrainian troops;) between the village of Rubizhnoye and Mexico is 10,000 – 11,000 miles! but of course Putin is to blame 🙂
Putin raises the price of everything in the US, Putin elects a president in the US. it looks like your USA is some kind of Putin’s colony 🙂
Eric
May 6, 2022 at 10:00 am
Putin invaded Ukraine. This is unequivocal.
from Russia with love
May 6, 2022 at 10:33 am
strange. in the Kherson region they say that he was released. in Mariupol they also say thank you for the release. 🙂
on what basis did you decide that the junta that seized power in Ukraine in 2014 is the legitimate government?
Greg
May 8, 2022 at 3:56 pm
Seriously, Vlad, you need to ask for a refund from whoever taught you “American English”.
Peace-making nukes of US arsenal
May 5, 2022 at 10:58 pm
The fighting in Donbass is just beginning, and I suspect the best military commanders, or at least the ones worth their salt, will start removing the wraps off the tactical nukes stored in their underground strong rooms.
The winner of Donbass will be the one who’s first off the blocks at the very start of the first nuclear pistol shot being fired.
Who’s going to win? Old joe Biden, Johnson, scholz or Putin, who has been putting his tactical nuke batteries on standby.I expect Biden to win due to the large b61 stockpile already present in Europe, in ramstein,Germany, Adriano in italy and in Netherlands and incurlik, turkey.Losers? Europe. Biden seems to be still quite smart, after all.
Slack
May 5, 2022 at 11:06 pm
Donbass will be the decisive battleground just like how Stalingrad was the decisive battleground for the Wehrmacht in 1942-1943.
How? In early 1943,the Wehrmacht 6th army found it’s supply routes cut off despite being able to enter Stalingrad.
Today, the Azov and aidar battalions are surging ahead but their supply depot’s are being smashed to smithereens by precision missile strikes.
Still, US and NATO could re-supply them with copters and Hercules and A400 freighters.But for how long.Till spring 2023???
from Russia with love
May 6, 2022 at 5:57 am
“Still, US and NATO could re-supply them with copters and Hercules and A400 freighters.But for how long.Till spring 2023???”
The United States and NATO supply weapons to the country with an air defense system. S-300s delivered to Ukraine burned down the next day after they crossed the border. American 155mm shells exploded at a railway station in Lvov two days ago.
but that’s only part of the problem. the main problem is that the US does not control what these weapons are after they cross the Ukrainian border. where it goes then no one can answer. part of course to the front. the militia of the DPR and LPR are already well equipped with stingers and javelins. but some of these weapons may surface in Europe, Africa and South America. are EU airports ready to meet stingers?
MAGA MAGA
May 5, 2022 at 11:13 pm
Biden will soon visit Japan to shore up support for his fight with Putin. But, but, but, but butts lately, or more exactly, a few hours ago, the jap PM has been making some noises about it being better to solve the ukraine conflict or the whole hullabaloo by holding negotiations.
This won’t sit well with Biden and his handlers, including blinken, who’s suddenly afflicted with covid. Now, is Japan throwing a wrench at Biden’s great plan for ww3 in europe; or ww3.5 in Asia.
Vladolph Putler
May 5, 2022 at 11:32 pm
I know, right? All that swagger and they perform worse than third world militaries. Even their trolls are inept.
BINGO DINGO
May 5, 2022 at 11:33 pm
Biden won’t have too many days left before he makes pilgrimage to the other side, or to the beloved great hunting grounds.
But one thing’s certain;he’s planned to have as many folks as possible in giving him company on his great trip to the great beyond.
Howdy, folks. Wanna accompany Biden to the great hunting grounds. Head to Donbass pronto!There’s plenty of fruit to pluck.Just one bite, and it’s quickly off to them great hunting ground.Giddap,joe.
Pagar
May 5, 2022 at 11:59 pm
Just hours ago, the Russian defense ministry showed videos, apparently taken by an unmanned craft, showing missile strikes groups of armed men in eastern ukraine.
The videos were accompanied by an alleged claim that Russian forces have just wiped out 600 UKR fighters. So, is the author aware of these reports before sending in the article.
The videos clearly showed the strikes were made by operators controlling the unmanned craft remotely. Could Donbass actually be the Hi-Tech battlefield of today.
Pagar
May 6, 2022 at 2:03 am
Biden is hell-bent on fighting Russia, perhaps to protect hunter and James, or because he’s pissed off that putin is friendly to Donald trump or has kompromat stuff on him.Thus Biden is sowing chaos and havoc in ukraine, fighting Russian forces with ukrainian blood.
Little does Biden realize that once he’s ridden the tiger, he can’t get off.Now the fighting will move to the next phase, beyond probing operations, beyond tit for tat and the biden-inspired slaughter will start.
Russia will be forced to interdict US & NATO weapon convoys and Biden will order USAF bombers to destroy Russia.But here again, Biden doesn’t understand that bombers need bases, and their bases will soon be targeted in quick fashion….WW3 !!!
Peace-making nukes of US arsenal
May 6, 2022 at 2:14 am
Biden is taking larger doses of L-dopa and other assorted meds to fight the creeping dementia, Alzheimer and Parkinson afflictions that have clouded his judgement.
Thinking he’s Mike Tyson in the white house, he has decided to forcefully prosecute regime change in Russia in 2022, while ignoring donbass’ calls for regime change in Kyiv which have been drowned out by statements that there was no massacre there against pro-russian residents. Thus it is crystal clear Biden can’t figure out what’s real and what’s not.But the renewed fighting in Donbass will soon shake his balls forward up right to his stomach. Too late by then, the meds won’t any longer do Biden one bit of good.Bye-bye Biden, goodbye.
from Russia with love
May 6, 2022 at 6:08 am
“Bye-bye Biden, goodbye.”
it looks like “sleepy Joe” decided to take the US and the EU with him.
see what’s going on. the economic crisis around the world, as if the war is not in Ukraine but in the EU and the USA.
h
May 6, 2022 at 6:38 am
From February 24 to May 6, Russian losses are approximately:
1,110 tanks, 2,686 armored fighting vehicles, 502 artillery systems, 171 multiple launch rocket systems, 83 anti-aircraft warfare systems, 199 aircraft, 155 helicopters, 1,926 motor vehicles and fuel tankers, 11 boats/cutters, 324 unmanned aerial vehicles, 38 special units and 90 cruise missiles.
If that’s just during a “special military operation” in two and a half months, I’d hate to see how Russia would “perform” in an actual war.
from Russia with love
May 6, 2022 at 10:44 am
ha ha ha 🙂 good joke 🙂
“If that’s just during a “special military operation” in two and a half months, I’d hate to see how Russia would “perform” in an actual war.”
your problem is that all these impressive figures on the Internet are not confirmed by reality. but what is the reality? in Ukraine there is total mobilization, in Russia there is no mobilization. in Ukraine, territorial defenses that do not have military training are already being thrown to the front; a professional army is fighting on the part of the Russian Federation. Ukraine is constantly begging for various types of weapons from neighboring countries, Russia does not apply for military assistance.
these are the facts;) but you can continue to believe in Ukrainian fairy tales 🙂 say hello to the “Phantom of Kyiv” which turned out to be a myth, like his fictitious 40 downed Russian planes 🙂
CK
May 6, 2022 at 7:45 am
Wow, the troll brigade out in force this morning I see. Not a single sign of Alex, but the telltale stench of lies, deception, deflection and obfuscation that are the hallmarks of the Internet Research Agency.
Tell me friends, how is the weather in St.Petersburg today? Careful with the fires! I hear buildings in Russia self-combust these days!
Yes, it’s all Biden’s fault! Biden invaded Ukraine! Biden will be responsible for… erh… [looks through script, selects scapegoat] yes the refugee crisis! Biden will have Ukrainian refugees in Mexico!
Oh the horror, oh the times! Yes, the economic crisis is coming, migrants are coming, food shortages are coming, everyone is coming (except Sveta) and with them all the demons and devils, hell is empty!
Please, please, look at all this other stuff, all this other diversion, just please, don’t look at what is happening in Ukraine, at what we are doing in Mariupol, Bucha, and other places, don’t pay attention!
It’s all the Bandera Nazi’s fault! Plz pls pls bro, believe us!
The fact that there are 5-6 of you here today fills me with joy. You don’t even have a coherent message anymore, besides laying blame elsewhere and deflecting.
Can only mean disaster is just around the corner for you!
Alex
May 6, 2022 at 8:20 am
German journalist Thomas Röper: Ukrainians are very afraid that the Russians will leave.
The journalist spoke about the distortion of facts in the Western media:
“I was three times in the south (Ukraine). The first trip was also to Melitopol. And so, on this trip, I was most impressed by the fact, or the fear that you see there in the eyes of people. And not among those who do not agree with the military operation, and according to my estimates, this is a minority. It is they who swear, the camera writes, and they will say how much they disagree. And those who agree are the majority.
I see it in the squares, when there are hundreds of people, they walk past the soldiers and say in a whisper: “Thank you guys, don’t leave.” They are very afraid, and they said it directly. They are very afraid that the Russians will leave and there will be reprisals. What, in my understanding, happened in Bucha, by the way.
And the fact that now, Alina said, from Mariupol is another such example. The woman was afraid to just speak the truth. Afraid that, God forbid, the Russians would leave and there would be reprisals. I don’t want to take too much time now, I just want to give one example, because the West always says it’s Russian propaganda if they say that Azov and other units of the Ukrainian troops use civilians as a “human shield”.
I write in German, and the other day I read an article in the German magazine Spiegel, which is probably known to many. And there was a very surprising offer. So they wrote… Everything, of course, sounded very positive, but they wrote that in Mariupol… More precisely, they (the newspaper) were told by people in Zaporozhye who had come from Mariupol, telling them that their national battalions held them, “politely of course”, held peaceful residents to the basement, and took positions in the apartments above these basements. It sounds in the Western media as if they are protecting them. Excuse me, what is this? If the fighters take up their combat positions above the basements where civilians are sitting, and how voluntarily they went to this basement.
Most people know the truth, but the Western media do not need this truth, they have a different manual, you need to do everything the other way around, and if it doesn’t work out the way America wants, you get sanctions, but the EU countries, not Russia, they will die after the first package of sanctions.
Alex
May 6, 2022 at 8:21 am
Director Oliver Stone described the scenario of US nuclear sabotage.
The author of the films “Ukraine on Fire” and “In the Struggle for Ukraine” noted that now the West is already masterfully and with the use of brute force is waging an information war against Russia.
American director Oliver Stone said that the most gloomy scenario for the development of the conflict in Ukraine remains a nuclear provocation by the United States. He shared this message on Twitter.
According to him, in this case, Washington will not even have to cover its tracks, since Russia is considered to be the main initiator of all atrocities. Stone wondered if the United States was creating “the conditions for a high-yield nuclear explosion of unknown origin somewhere in the Donbass” that would incur the deaths of thousands of Ukrainians.
“Of course, if this, God forbid, happens, the whole world, like Pavlov’s trained dog, will blame Russia for everything. This guilt has already been established in advance, regardless of who presses the button,” the director wrote.
The United States deliberately hushed up the crimes of the Kyiv regime against the civilian population in Ukraine, which have been going on since 2014, Stone recalled. He also stressed that now the West “with skill and brute force” is waging an information war against Russia.
Earlier, US General Mark Milley said that the likelihood of a clash between the great powers is growing. The military also spoke about the events in Ukraine, calling them the biggest security threat in Europe, and possibly the whole world, for “more than 40 years of his military career.”
CK
May 6, 2022 at 8:39 am
What happened Alex, re-using material from a few days ago? You guys run out of papers and printers in St.Petersburg now?
You guys hear the Admiral Makarov frigate now also appears to be on fire?
Imagine losing all these ships in your navy, in a landwar, against a country without a navy itself.
Maybe they were worried the Moskva was feeling lonely?
from Russia with love
May 7, 2022 at 5:40 am
“You guys hear the Admiral Makarov frigate now also appears to be on fire?”
bad news… for you 🙂 you ate pork shit again 🙂
t.me/nashiivashi/1991
photo of Russian ships “sunk” by Ukraine this morning. extreme left and extreme right they are;)
Tell me, are you tired of eating shit? how many more times do you need to embarrass yourself with the repetition of Ukrainian lies to understand that Ukrainian sources are constantly lying?
CK
May 10, 2022 at 10:13 am
Yes, I was very sad to hear this wasn’t true.
That’s the fun thing between you and I, when I’m wrong on something, I can admit it and move on.
You on the other hand, have been wrong about almost everything happening in Ukraine, but continue lying to yourself. Your little fragile mind can’t handle the truth, so it indulges itself in cognitive dissonance.
I am looking forward to a few months from now, years even. Hopefully you will still be around this board, so we can see who was on the right side of history.
Alex
May 6, 2022 at 9:28 am
And now let’s hear the truth, not Bandera’s Nazi fakes:
The Bandera Nazis of Ukraine rejoiced that they had arrested the Ukrainian independent journalist Anatoly Shariy in Spain. Anatoly Shariy moved his member on the lips of the Bandera Nazis and is already at large! This is democracy in Europe, and not lawlessness like you have in impoverished Ukraine, Bandera pigs 🙂
mawendt
May 6, 2022 at 12:27 pm
Alex… шляпа ты не верблюд.
(Prove you are not a camel).
mawendt
May 6, 2022 at 12:23 pm
“…and Russian troops underperform (from inadequate/poor tactical pre-war training).”
Yes, but this is very secondary. Rather, it is the Russian ground troops and first line leaderships *LACK OF WILL*. Those Russian troops on the line do not support dying in combat against Ukraine for a Putin government they despise.
Ukrainian soldiers, on the other hand, have the combination of excellent fixed defenses, on a chosen and well known field, coupled with a *determination and will* to resist.
Clauswitz and others have written about moral forces in war, which we can observe in US forces (Vietnam, Afghanistan), Iraq forces (against US), and now Russian forces (Ukraine). Russian line forces military doesn’t seem to have the drive to want to win, but rather simply want to stay alive – which is not a winning tactic.
Alex
May 6, 2022 at 12:42 pm
Why is the West screaming and hysteria? Russia does not do like NATO and does not kill everything in its path. Russia is simply systematically liberating its brothers every day. This is what the West cannot do. Therefore, the West is hysterical. Even the Bandera Nazis turned out to be a weak toy in the hands of the Anglo-Saxons. That’s the whole truth.
Dave Nelson
May 6, 2022 at 1:53 pm
Idiot writes: “on what basis did you decide that the junta that seized power in Ukraine in 2014 is the legitimate government?”
Because immediately afterwards your stooge fled to Moscow the Ukrainian Parliament VOTED to remove him from office and shortly afterwards the people of Ukraine VOTED for a different man to be President.
And the people continued to VOTE for alternatives when they elected the current President.
The true measure of a Democracy is the people can VOTE to change course.
When was the last time Russian People could change course and elect a different person? One who is not the worlds biggest thief surrounded by his Mafia pals? One who doesn’t use the FSB to blow up apartments and kill 300 citizens?
Alex
May 6, 2022 at 2:29 pm
Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. And now impoverished Ukraine. Bravo USA! You will be remembered forever.
Exnavynuke
May 6, 2022 at 10:51 pm
You forget a few:
Great Britain.
France.
Germany. (West and later East)
Japan.
Italy.
Turkey.
China.
and yes,
Korea.
Vietnam.
I dunno Alex, I’m thinking every single dominant empire gets remembered for the great good and evils it has perpetrated during its time. From Sumeria to the United States of this last century, they shall be remembered.
No; what burns your biscuits is how infrequently the behemoths’ opponents are remembered: if it wasn’t for Hamilcar and Hannibal Barca, who would remember Carthage? All remember Roma; and of Carthage most only remember “a desert called Peace”. The USSR died, not even in the fires of war whilst locked in a mortal struggle with its nemesis, but with the pitiful wheeze of an elderly vagrant.
James
May 6, 2022 at 4:03 pm
I went on vacation to the Bahamas and logged back in after 2 weeks. Just as i expected… Alex is still sucking on putins asshole ? Alex… Russian Frigate Admiral Makarov is sinking hahahah 10+ dead russian generals, 15k+ dead russians. We are laughing at your backwards garbage “country”. ???
DEFCON.2
May 6, 2022 at 5:47 pm
China is the big winner……again.
CK
May 6, 2022 at 7:54 pm
Alex: “Russia is simply systematically liberating its brothers every day.”
Ah yes, where have I heard something similar before? Arbeit Macht frei maybe?
Yes yes, it must have been WW2, where Russian soldiers also valiantly “liberated” Russian villages, Ukrainian villages, Lithuanian, Estonian, Latvian, Finnish, Romanian Hungarian, Austrian, and then German villages, raping and looting everyone in sight, whether Russian citizen, ally, enemy or even captured Western POWs.
In 80 years, nothing has changed. Still the same savages as before. Stick your liberation up your assholes.
Exnavynuke
May 6, 2022 at 11:14 pm
“Over the years, the United States has sent many of its fine young men and women into great peril to fight for freedom beyond our borders. The only amount of land we have ever asked for in return is enough to bury those that did not return.” – Fmr. SecState Colin Powell
For all of our many, many faults, THIS is the nature of Pax Americana. Wars have happened; the fallen nature of Man makes it inevitable. The wars have always been small, localized affairs – devastating to the people caught up in the violence, of course – but having a minimal affect afield. American blood and treasure have been spent profligately with no demand for recompense to maintain this tenuous and often torn veil of civility.
And for this, we’ve become reviled by those who cast covetous eyes upon their neighbor. That is as it should be: the criminal always hates and fears the police. He plots and schemes to weaken the opposition to his nefarious activity; and if he’s clever and patient sometimes the police becomes fat, lazy, and corrupt. Yet, when the criminal’s life and property are in danger, to whom does he turn?
Perhaps, just perhaps, the police has dimly started to recognize that he is no longer the proud young man he once was. Further, perhaps he faces the choice or retiring, reveling in his feckless corruption, or going back to the gym and swearing off the bribes. He hasn’t decided yet, but it’s looking like he’s leaning toward the third; and the criminals are starting to get very nervous…
My nation is hardly blameless, my history is hardly above reproach. My nation enshrines ideals it has failed to keep, my nation has done many mighty deeds to support those ideals.
“amongst these are Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness”
Fee
May 7, 2022 at 12:26 am
1939 Russo Finnish War. There is a good movie on this war call “The Winter War”. It was the Karelia Peninsula where the Soviets eventually overwhelm the Finns. It was classical trench warfare. Relentless bombardment eventually followed by infantry waves that wore down the Finns. In the end the characters of the Finnish soldiers huddled in a numb state as the Soviets shelled them relentlessly. That is how the Soviets may win the war in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine has mobilized an additional 200,000 recruits. They have been kept back and being organized into motorized formation. There are areas in the south that the Ukrainians can attack. Question is how tough are the Russians holding these lines. They are worn out by the high losses also. If the Ukrainians are successful in the south it would force the Russians to bleed forces from the east to relieve their left flank in the south. The US/NATO right or wrong headed on this, the war has started and everyone is in a sea of blood. No one can quit until one side is defeated.
Stefan Stackhouse
May 7, 2022 at 9:02 pm
The Russians will keep fighting as long as there are Ukrainian hospitals and schools to blow up, Ukrainian women to rape, and unarmed Ukrainian civilians to murder. It is what they do, and few do it more proficiently.
Andrew P
May 8, 2022 at 6:53 am
I keep wondering when Russia pulls out its nukes in Ukraine? The use of nukes won’t make Ukraine surrender, but will destroy its army in the field and contaminate Ukraine with radioactive dust. My guess is that Russia will have to use at least 500 tactical nukes to win. Then after Russia wins, that radioactive dust will be blown all over Russia and Europe. Russia will get a Pyrrhic victory, and everyone is a loser.
Alex
May 8, 2022 at 10:47 am
German journalist Thomas Röper continues to publish his materials with photo and video evidence. The lies of the Bandera Nazis stop working, the CIA specialists cannot even help.
“When we crossed the border, the Ukrainian border post was pretty much destroyed, but that’s all. There were several cars on the side of the road then, which, as our companion told us, were hastily moved across the road by the Ukrainian army to block the road. But tanks cannot be stopped by several cars .
In addition, we did not see any damage, except for some damaged safety fences. The Russian army passed there without meeting any resistance, and in all the places where we passed, everything was intact, not a single window was broken. Life also went on as usual, shops and gas stations were open, cars were driving, people were on the streets, and so on. If someone did not know, nothing would indicate that an army had just passed through here.
Experienced fellow journalists, such as a Dutch journalist with experience in Syria, found this very impressive. She told us that she knows her differently than she knows Syria because when the US Army advances, helicopters fly forward, shooting at anything that moves to prevent ambushes. She told me that even if no civilians were harmed, the devastation where the US Army had advanced was significant.
This was confirmed by an American among journalists, a former US Marine. By the way, he has an interesting story, because he has been living in Russia for six years and received political asylum because he asked too many critical questions in the United States on a sensitive topic. In the USA, of course, they tell it differently, but that’s another topic.
What also stood out was the poverty in Ukraine. For those who, like me, still know Russia from the 1990s, there was a feeling that they had traveled back in time to the 90s. Today Russia is a clean country with modern cities where entire districts have been rebuilt. I have linked a video that makes this clear.
Ukraine still looks the same as the then Russia. Broken roads, dilapidated bus stops, dilapidated, dilapidated houses, a lot of old Soviet cars and so on. Even the joyless clothes of people reminds of the 90s in Russia. It touched me very much because it brought back some memories of that time and the problems of my friends at that time. But this can only be understood by those who have experienced it for themselves.
I expected that the opponents of the Russian military operation would not talk to us, because they should be afraid of Russian soldiers. However, everything was exactly the opposite. The opponents told the Russian soldiers to their faces that they were not welcome here and that they should go home. They are clearly not at all afraid of Russian soldiers and call them names, sometimes harshly, to which Russian soldiers stoically do not react.
Those who are afraid, we all quickly noticed, are the supporters of the Russian operation. They walked past the soldiers and unobtrusively whispered words of gratitude and something like “finally!” or “Don’t go again!” them.
Disgruntled people also grabbed every microphone and stood in front of every camera, expressing their displeasure, while the supporters of the operation were difficult to film and interview the supporters of the operation. One of the few exceptions was an elderly woman who said she was 72 and not afraid. She almost cried with joy in front of the camera and thanked Russia.
The fear, as I learned from whispering conversations with some of the stakeholders, is that Russia might leave again, and then they will have to expect reprisals and even worse consequences for their propaganda of Russian intervention, as they did after the Maidan. The most famous, but far from the only case was the Odessa tragedy in May 2014, when more than 40 people were burned alive in Odessa by Maidan supporters. This massacre is cynically called “Odessa barbecue” by nationalists in Ukraine and has not yet been disclosed.
In general, the life of opponents of the authorities in Ukraine after the Maidan was not safe, political assassinations were not uncommon, and the UNHCR also mentioned this more than once in its human rights reports on Ukraine. But it is one thing to know this and read about it, and quite another when you experience this fear so tangibly. Fear was also manifested in the fact that many did not even want to be seen in the background of the picture. Most of them avoided the cameras and always walked behind the cameramen so as not to get into the frame.
And something else was said in the reaction of people. Due to the fact that we were under the protection of Russian soldiers, people might think that we were pro-Russian. But when they heard that we were from the West, many refused to talk to us at all. Many would probably talk to the Russian media, but almost no one wanted to be in front of a Dutch, Italian or even American camera.
Один из согласившихся настоял на том, чтобы интервью давали на английском, а не на русском, потому что боялся, что западные СМИ исказят его слова. Это был опыт, которого я не ожидал в Украине. Затем он положительно отозвался о российской военной операции.
Where we were, life basically went on as usual. What shocked me was the fear of the people who support the Russian side. Seeing this, this anxiety of the people, it was depressing. I was also surprised by the visible poverty in Ukraine. I didn’t expect to see it so clearly. The infrastructure is still from the Soviet Union and since then little has been done, much has fallen into disrepair, especially empty factories and really bad roads stand out.
I was pleased with the man’s answer to the question of who is more Russian or Ukrainian in the city. His answer was:
“We don’t make any difference! Besides, so many nations live here; Armenians, Georgians, Greeks, we are all one family!”
That’s what I wish for Ukraine to return to this: to be one big family, because it was this Maidan government that they wanted to expel from Ukraine, relying on radical nationalism.
The Ukrainians will be able to defeat the Bandera Nazis in the same way as their ancestors once did.”
Jamea
July 3, 2022 at 6:29 am
Ahahahaha. This aged well. All “experts”. No wonder why the western world is collapsing.