As the Ukraine war grinds into its fifth month, it is increasingly unclear what Russia could possibly win which might justify the massive costs it is incurring for its invasion. Conquest is supposed to pay, otherwise war is irrational. Yet after just a few months, it is obvious that a cost-benefit analysis of the war is negative and trending worse for Russia. But Russian President Vladimir Putin is disinterested in peace talks. At this point, he appears to be fighting the war simply for prestige – to prove that Russia is still a great power. This is ironic, because the war itself is destroying Russia’s very claim to be a great power.
Devastated Conquests Don’t Pay
In eastern Ukraine, Russia is finally making progress. It is conquering territory. It appears close to fully capturing Luhansk and Donetsk, the Donbas territories Russia claims are independent countries. And Russia controls much of Ukraine’s coast. So Putin might soon be able to declare a kind of ‘victory.’
But this is success in only the most basic, blunt-force way. It is true that Russia now controls a bit more territory than it did before, and that territorial control is a zero-sum game because there is only so much land-space in the world. Russia now controls more than it did in February, which is a success of sorts. But this victory has otherwise been very limited.
Russia expected to defeat Ukraine quickly and, possibly, occupy much of the country. Instead, its territorial gains are narrow and vulnerable to counter-attack. And the conquered territory itself is devastated. Russia has pounded the ground it is taking with relentless air and artillery strikes. The physical infrastructure in these areas is being destroyed and the population killed or driven off.
Occupying these conquests will be expensive, because a major military or police presence will be needed to prevent revolts. (Ukraine was a hotbed of resistance to both the Nazis and Soviets.) Reconstruction, in order to extract any economic value from these spaces, will be another drain. Most of the world will not recognize these conquests as Russian territory. This means investment and trade will be minimal. Business will also be deterred by the ruined infrastructure. Nor will economically productive people move into such conflict-ridden regions. Only the old and frail will likely stay.
In short order, these conquered areas will require subsidization from the Russian government to survive. This has been a pattern in other Russian ‘frozen conflicts.’ They become an expense and a burden. This is not a sustainable model of expansion, nor is it conquest that pays.
On top of these costly conquests are the wider economic ramifications of the war. The invasion will isolate Russia from the Western economy for decades. Even if gas purchases are eventually restored, the West will slowly disentangle itself from Russia. Western companies will not return; sanctions will linger; access to Western banking will sharply contract, along with access to international financial institutions like the IMF; travel to the West for leisure and education will become much harder; critical imports and technologies will be cut off; dependence on China will skyrocket. These costs are scarcely felt now, but over the medium-term, they will noticeably reduce Russian growth and worsen its brain drain. If Putin stays in charge, Russia will slide into Soviet levels of isolation from the rest of the world.
Wars for Prestige are a Terrible Idea
By the material benchmarks sketched above, the war is a disaster for Russia. The value of its territorial acquisitions is low, probably negative, given the devastating nature of these spaces due to Russian shelling and the ensuing political-economic limbo they will fall into as unrecognized conquests. These realities would counsel Russia to stop the war, and there seems to be some dissent in the Kremlin around these points.
But Putin marches on, suggesting that the war is not about any particular valuable conquest anymore, but victory for its own sake. This is an awful reason to fight a war. Ignoring the material balance of costs in pursuit of a victory for prestige is a proven means of sliding into an unwinnable quagmire. This is quite close to the logic of the US in the later stages of the Vietnam War.
In that conflict, much of the US national security establishment recognized that the war could not be won at reasonable cost – without, for example, invading North Vietnam or nuking it. Henry Kissinger apparently felt this way as early as 1966. Yet President Lyndon Johnson did not want to be the first American president to lose a war, and his successor, President Richard Nixon, wanted an elusive ‘peace with honor.’ American credibility was at stake.
The reason to keep fighting became, in a circular logic, because the US was already at war. Winning became the point of winning, not any identifiable material or strategic goal. Both Johnson and Nixon became so vested in the conflict that they struggled to move on from it, generating enormous political tension at home, alienating allies abroad, and igniting economic problems which led to the troubles of the 1970s.
Putin is probably sliding into this dilemma. He started the war. Victory or defeat reflects on him. And Russia’s perception as a great power could be damaged by a stalemate in the war – even as the war itself undercuts Russia’s claim to be a great power by illustrating the myriad inadequacies of its military and costs piling up on the Russian economy.
Just as the US kept fighting in Vietnam for the specter of credibility, so, likely, Putin will keep fighting in Ukraine. The material costs of the war are increasingly irrelevant to him, which will only make them that much worse in the end.
Dr. Robert E. Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly; website) is a professor of international relations in the Department of Political Science at Pusan National University. Dr. Kelly is a 1945 Contributing Editor as well.
Stefan Stackhouse
June 24, 2022 at 8:11 pm
The Russian Empire was bled dry over and over again. They kept coming back for one more chunk of neighboring territory after another, year after year, decade after decade, and century after century, until they reached their maximum extent before WWI.
DavidC
June 28, 2022 at 10:24 pm
Sure Russia is being bleed dry, if you say so. Meanwhile, the Russian Federation is about annex between a quarter to a half of Ukraine. The best parts.
Ray Shewmaker
June 24, 2022 at 8:32 pm
I can only agree. Please let me add two statements. Number one I’m sorely disappointed in the Russian Joint Chiefs of Staff. It appears none have any common sense, or courage. My second comment is harsher than yours. The Ukrainian’s won’t stop fighting because the Russians want to. Till they are out of Ukraine.
RoboJ1M
June 24, 2022 at 9:02 pm
That’s the crazy thing isn’t it? Had Russia stopped and sued for peace earlier, a ‘legal’ transfer of Crimea could have been his prize.
Now though? The Ukrainians won’t stop until they have everything back. And who could blame them? Rewarding Putin with a prize for a war of conquest means what he did worked. As would it then for every other 2 bit dictator.
Have at them I say, bleed then dry and kick then out then offer sanction relief for signing paper that says they’ll never leave their borders again.
I’ve also read winnings of the neglected and abused Russian republics suing for independence. LOSING territory! Wouldn’t THAT be grand, eh? ?
Thomas Chappell
June 25, 2022 at 7:31 pm
Are you kidding? Ukraine will never be able to take back any land without direct NATO participation. Then NATO will be bled dry. Taking land from a determined enemy is hard, as was just proven. It will not be any easier to retake land than it was to take it in the first place. And has Ukraine not already been bled dry? The only blood let to spill is ours.
James Versluis
June 28, 2022 at 11:57 am
The Ukrainians just have to stay in the war to force this decision and they clearly want it more. Five months in, QED. The “bleeding dry” isn’t happening to NATO at all, it’s happening to Russia. The ONLY thing NATO is bleeding is a few bucks. The Russians are NOT a determined enemy, they are clearly a bewildered one. And there are still millions of Ukrainians still willing to fight.
Anyway the Russians would immediately go nuclear, not “bleed” NATO. It’s clear now the Russians wouldn’t stand a chance against NATO troops. Certainly not against the more determined, well trained and and well armed ones like the Poles, Yanks, Balts and (soon) the Finns.
Staying conventional at this point would see the Russians crushed. Front line NATO troops would be fighting hollowed out battalion tactical groups now armed with weapons from the 1960’s and 70’s: T-64’s and BMP-1’s. Ironically the best weapons the Russians would have are stocks of captured Javelins and NLAW’s. These would be fighting M1a2 Sep v.3’s, Leo 2PL’s, PL1’s
and IFV’s made or updated in the 21st century. Blood may be spilled, but it would be civilian, not NATO. There is no war to be had with nuclear powers.
Dirk Manly
July 3, 2022 at 7:13 pm
Sending NATO manufactured tanks to a Ukrainian army composed of tankers whose experienced crews have never even driven in anything but a Soviet-designed tank is an immediate failure.
It’s time for Zelinsky & gang to accept that continuation of hostilities only costs Kiev more ground and kills more of the Ukranian army.
But this is really aware by (((Zelinsky))), (((Nuland))), etc to depopulate Ukraine so that they Isntraelis can all jump from shores of the Mediterranean, back to the shores of the Black Sea, which is where they came from.
Aaron R Kulkis
July 3, 2022 at 7:42 pm
Fabian strategy doesn’t work when the opponent is literally your next door neighbor. It requires that the opponent has to send troops across a body of water. There’s literally no war in history of a Fabian strategy being successful against a country which shared a land border with the defenders.
Ray Shewmaker
July 2, 2022 at 12:07 am
The Russians appear to be running out of lower cost missiles. Actually they are beginning to run short of many of their weapons. Using Large Bombers and Millie’s from their client(slave) state neighbor is a definite indication of the loss of combat material in the Battle zone. PS I am hopeful the Ukrainian’s realize that occupying Snake Island is pointless. That island was useful for Targeting Russians.??⚓?
Aaron R Kulkis
July 3, 2022 at 7:44 pm
Russia is manufacturing missiles faster than they are shooting them. It took a couple months to take some of the the manufacturing plants out of mothballs back into commission, but they’re not lacking in weapons. They’re starting to have fewer targets to shoot at with the more expensive missiles.
Aaron R Kulkis
July 3, 2022 at 7:08 pm
You are delusional.
You don’t understand Russian history (of which Byelorussian and Ukranian history are integral). I’ll bet that you can’t even speak or read Russian nor Ukrainian (which is really just a weird dialect, like comparing English spoken in Dallas, Texas vs in London, England.
Aaron R Kulkis
July 3, 2022 at 7:15 pm
Putin tried peace for 8 years as Ukraine continued to bombard the Donbass for 8 years without let up.
The fault lies in Kiev, not Moscow.
Aaron R Kulkis
July 3, 2022 at 7:26 pm
Your village is obviously missing its idiot.
You don’t know war.
You don’t know the recent history beyond the partial truths and blatant lies of the western press and you truly don’t understand the history of the region, going back to when Kiev was the capital of ALL of the Rus’ over 1000 years ago.
All you know is that Russian troops moved out of Russia “for no apparent reason.”
It’s strange how whenever anyone does or says anything against Jewish plans (in this particular case, to eventually invade Russia & divide it up into many smaller entities), it’s always “for no apparent reason” or “without any evidence”
And yet when you read the full history, the reasons and evidence are abundant.
speedster
June 24, 2022 at 8:42 pm
Initial guess would be that Putin, did not expect the western countries to provide weapons to ukraine. However the Russian propaganda was that ukraine was neo nazi, despite the Jewish president.However the western countries do not have muzzled media, so the neo Nazi propaganda would not affect the west view of ukraine.
Best guess is that Putin, surrounded by goose stepping guards in his palace,and with his KGB, background, believed his own propaganda would be swallowed without question in western countries.
I do believe that Putin did not have a clue as to just how mediocre the Russian military was, in comparison with western countries. However having gambled in Ukraine everyone now know how Ukraine with western aid is keeping at bay the Russian military. Putin’s ego, seems to be the only thing keeping him from “falling on his sword”.
Some Dude
June 25, 2022 at 10:49 am
Don’t believe everything you hear in the Western media, either. For example, you never see footage of Russian troops destroying Ukrainian troops, only footage of Russian hits on residential areas and hospitals, and footage of Russian troops destroyed by Ukraine. All the footage is negative about Russia’s performance. Yet surely the Russians are causing massive losses on the Ukrainian just as the other way around, since Ukraine let is slip that they are losing up to 200 soldiers a day at one point. Furthermore, we know some footage being posted as Ukrainian’s killing Russian tanks or troops are not even from the Ukraine war; some are from the Azeri-Armenian war.
I don’t know what to believe, but I do know the it’s not only Putin who lies, our government lies, the Ukrainians lie, and our media lies constantly.
Stefan Stackhouse
June 25, 2022 at 11:14 am
The Russian Army is lethal, but we now know that their soldiers are ordinary humans and not ten foot tall giants. They can be fought against and resisted.
Joe
June 25, 2022 at 3:22 pm
I have to wonder: How many US tax dollars did Zelensky’s Nazi government pay the author to write this tripe?
tod
June 26, 2022 at 10:31 am
Thought Joe Stalin died in 1953?
mcswell
June 26, 2022 at 7:03 pm
You mean Putin’s Nazi government? Because the Russians are behaving very much like the Nazis.
Aaron R Kulkis
July 3, 2022 at 7:50 pm
Mcswell, that is literally the most ignorant thing I have read in the previous week.
And at this point, there is literally zero excuse for you to still be believing that lie. It has been shown repeatedly that every single war crime which Kiev had complained about, has, upon further investigation, been a war crime committed by the Ukrainian Army.
If military hardware is placed next to a protected structure, such as a hospital, and in the attempt to destroy that hardware, the hospital gets hit, the war crime is of placing the weapons or equipment there in the first place, NOT in collateral damage which occurs while trying to destroy the military equipment or supplies.
abraham lincoln
June 25, 2022 at 1:18 pm
Thank you for the standard Russian propaganda response. Russia’s propaganda effort when it comes to comment boxes is to try to make the case that Ukraine is a liar and is just as bad as Russia. Furthermore, the Russian propaganda technique is to paint the US as just as big a liar as Russia, too.
You made both Russian propaganda points quite well. There is only one problem. We now have enough experience with this war to know that Russia almost always lies, Ukraine almost always tells the truth – even if they do not disclose everything, because they are in a war. You say “Ukraine let it slip…” But in fact, Ukraine ANNOUNCED their losses. There is almost ZERO fake footage by Ukrainians. Sometimes internet trolls did post something as new footage that was old footage. But that was individuals in foreign countries, not the Ukrainian government. We all took that in stride because we know not to believe everything we hear on the internet. So those of us who have followed this war closely know that basically, the Ukrainians tell the truth, and Russia lies and the US basically tells the truth. Thank you again for putting forth the Russian propaganda techniques for confusing people.
tod
June 26, 2022 at 10:37 am
By ‘our’ media you mean RT, comrade?
mcswell
June 26, 2022 at 7:05 pm
On the contrary, if you go over to Newsweek, you’ll see plenty of videos of Russian attacks on Ukrainian military, along with videos of Ukrainian attacks on Russian military. I haven’t counted, but I’d say they’re in roughly even numbers.
John
June 27, 2022 at 7:36 am
yes
Ray Shewmaker
July 2, 2022 at 12:18 am
Some Dude, Hey the Russians would love to show their success’s. They showed the hole in one of the ships hit by a Ukrainian missile. All cleaned up. I did notice “No Comment” on the cargo, & personnel who were being Transported to Snake Island. Although the Vessel never arrived there. The Russian Military is a Conscripted(drafted) one. They aren’t fighting for themselves.??⚓?
Aaron R Kulkis
July 3, 2022 at 7:57 pm
Moskva wasn’t hit by a missile. If it had been, there would have been a huge hole in the side of the hill above the waterline and plainly visible.
Whatever sank the Moskva, it wasn’t an anti-ship missile, because the sort of expected damage that comes with such a hit was not evident.
Do a search for “anti-ship missile damage” and then click on “images” and notice that the Moskva didn’t show ANY signs of similar damage.
Therefore, it was due to an on-ship mishap of catastrophic consequences, not enemy action.
And no, it wasn’t a cruise missile plunging through the deck top. Cruise missiles don’t have the capability of tracking moving targets.
Aaron R Kulkis
July 3, 2022 at 7:33 pm
British intelligence leaked that the Ukrainian military is losing over 1000 per day.
Such a “leak” isn’t accidental, it’s preparing the British public for the inevitable outcome.
Real estimates, guided by field reports and the very reliable Lanchester’s Laws of attrition models indicate that Ukraine was losing 500/day in the first week & that current loss rates in the Ukrainian Army are around 3000/day.
When I see repeatedly see videos of groups of around 50 men, and they are all that’s left of a 600+ man battalion, and again, and again, it’s easy to determine who is winning and will continue winning.
Steve Levy
June 28, 2022 at 10:48 am
“The western countries do not have muzzled media”? What planet are you on? Try to find something in the fake-news media about Hunter Biden’s drug use and rampant corruption.
Steve Kellmeyer
June 28, 2022 at 12:10 pm
1) Ukraine *WAS* and *IS* controlled, at least in part, by neo-Nazis. There’s no getting around the integration of the Azov battalion into Ukrainian military and political infrastructure. Russia may be led by a blood-thirsty dictator, but that doesn’t make the Ukrainian government heroic or innocent. The fact that Ukraine has a Jewish president merely highlights the fact that even during the death camps of WW II, there were Jews who were willing to work with Nazis.
When Hitler invaded Stalin’s Russia, it was bad guys against bad guys. Same thing is going on here. The Ukrainian people don’t deserve this, but the governments of both Ukraine and Russia are corrupt and evil.
In WW II, we assisted international socialists against national socialists. Today, America is assisting neo-Nazis. That’s just a fact.
2) Not only is Russia being bled dry, so is Ukraine, NATO and to the extent that it supplies Russia with supplies, so is China. NATO is only marginally better than Russia at replenishing its stocks of weapons. No nation on earth is on a war-time economy, no one has devoted the majority or even the plurality of their economy to war-material production.
War eats munitions faster than a peace-time economy can produce them. They will run out of munitions before they run out of animosity. Then we will see which country wants to switch to a war-time economy. Probably no one is interested enough to do that.
Error402
June 24, 2022 at 10:18 pm
Heh, msm news reporting by outlets like reuters, afp, and even al jazeeira have been thoroughly hijacked by the pro-kyiv agenda, never mind reports emanating from neocon websites.
Ukro fascist units have been forced to withdraw from severodonetsk despite official reports of them conducting heroic battles a la SS divisions’ famous fighting men of former eastern front combat fame.
Likewise around or near Lysychansk, where ukro fighters have alleged been bravely repulsing attackers when in reality russian forces have seized hirske and zolote bringing whole of ukro forward defense lines within firing range.
It won’t be long before sleepy joe biden wakes up to realize (to his dismay) his investment in europe is soon going to give him a big bite in the backside by the time the midterms election arrives.
Exnavynuke
June 25, 2022 at 12:58 pm
You seem to have only a passing grasp of internal American politics, which is completely understandable; I’ve got no clue regarding the regional politics of whichever part of the planet you call home.
However, the current American President has way, way more serious and pressing problems than his inevitable missteps in the Ukraine. This is neither the time nor place to delineate the issues internal to US politics; but suffice to say they are legion.
As to your earlier points, while I applaud and appreciate your grasp of sarcasm, they do little to move the narrative forward. I strongly suspect most people who read the news – not to mention the smaller subset who read comments – are fully aware they’re being lied to. Often the nature of the lie reveals far more about the truth than the liar ever intends. That, for me at least, is why I consume a fairly wide variety of media. Including this particular website.
John Shanahan
June 26, 2022 at 2:09 am
Bravo!
tod
June 26, 2022 at 10:36 am
I just read where you KGB sock puppets will soon be paid in rubble since Vlad’s currently is worthless and not accepted anywhere. Good rubble though, imported concrete chunks from occupied Ukraine. Enjoy eating that, comrade.
Aaron R Kulkis
July 3, 2022 at 8:09 pm
I’m 100% verifiable and not only am I not a sock puppet, I’m a descendant of Ukie and Lithuanian immigrants, and as I read it (in both Ukrainian and Russian), the entire Zelinsky government down to regional governors and even some mayors should be tried for crimes against humanity for what they have been doing to the civilians in the Donbass for 8 years.
There wouldn’t have even been a referendum for autonomous status WITHIN Ukraine (not Independence) without the post-coup government starting a genocidal campaign against anyone who speaks Russian.
(Which would be like politicians in Washington DC declaring that anyone with a New England accent should be attacked until dead or they flee the country)
Cerebus
June 24, 2022 at 10:37 pm
Russia lost this war the day Putin chose to drag them into Ukraine unprovoked. Putin has cost Russia over 35,000 sons dead and 100,000 wounded along with at a couple thousand prisoners. and this number is rapidly climbing.
Putin has cost Russia their international prestige, their global trust, their economy and dangerously exposed their military as a paper tiger. Their military weapons systems have proven to be so lacking in capability that Russia may never make another foreign weapons sale ever again. It will take 50 years after they are driven out of Ukraine for Russian to begin to recover.
Aaron Kulkis
July 3, 2022 at 8:01 pm
8 years of round-the-clock bombardment of Russian Speakers w-o merely asked for autonomous government, NOT INDEPENDENCE, does not qualify as “unprovoked”
More than 50% of the Ukranian population sympathizes with Moscow, not Kiev.
This is the 3rd time that I know of that they Russians have had to send an army down to clean out the corruption and criminality in Kiev, and it won’t be the last, as it happens every few hundred years, going back to 1480.
Error404
June 24, 2022 at 11:21 pm
The biden-NATO proxy war in ukraine is an important learning ground for russia.Right now, russian commanders have learned how to use continuous artillery barrages to flush out ukro fighters.
Like in ww2, during operation bagration, soviet forces smashed the nazis (German Third Panzer Army at vitebsk) using massed artillery and katyusha rockets.
In a future US-NATO war in europe, russia will have to use artillery and kinzhal rockets, iskander rockets and even rs-24 rockets (SS-29).
Just think, who’s gonna win. Who’s got the larger territory to house their artillery and rockets. US and NATO imposed this ukraine war despite US not ready to forward deploy hypersonic rockets due to unexpected delay in testing, qualification and production.
When US has its hyper systems ready in europe, one can bet yer arse the US will not hesitate to lunge at russia as if it’s today’s genghis khan.
Exnavynuke
June 25, 2022 at 1:24 pm
“Who’s gonna win”
Indeed. The weapon merchants and the crows.
Unless something really unusual happens, the US and USSR (sorry, forgot you rebranded yourselves – Russia, then) won’t face off directly. I suspect that if one side or the other initiates a direct conflict the war will likely happen much as it’s been wargamed for over 70 years.
Assuming the USSR (forgive me, Russia) doesn’t decide to commit mass suicide and keeps the nukes at home, they will gleefully rampage across most of central Europe almost at will. They’d be slowed near western France, with the lead elements of REFORGER mating with the heavy equipment rolling off the prepositioned ships the US keeps ready. The smaller, but more technologically advanced NATO forces will rally under the protective air umbrella provided by British bases. Then will come a bloody slog as NATO starts rolling east; Soviet (dammit, did it again) subs will try, and initially often succeed in sinking the critical shipping from the US to Europe. However, the reds will have significantly less luck intercepting the ridiculously huge aerial armada linking the continents.
In that scenario, the Ukraine and Poland would once again become the killing ground.
However, the recent debacle is rapidly changing the calculus. The Russian military has hollowed itself out, no matter its eventual success. On the other hand, the current US government seems hell-bent of destroying its own military with the injection of radical politics. There are still significant differences: Russia is ultimately much weaker than the US regarding GDP, population, industrial production (military production has been relatively unaffected by the offshoring trend of the last couple decades), and geography.
Lets expand on the last bit for a moment: the Urals are a pretty decent natural defensive formation. However, the USA has a literal ocean as her first line of defense; and much of her heavy industry is behind a mountain range at least as formidable as the Urals.
All I know for sure is that I really don’t want a direct war between our peoples; but if has to happen, it’ll be really bad for the eagle in the short term, but likely catastrophic for the bear after the first few months. Lets all pray we never have to find out.
Fnord73
June 28, 2022 at 5:45 am
“On the other hand, the current US government seems hell-bent of destroying its own military with the injection of radical politics. ” Thats the one argument i never quite get. Where is the proof that good social policies in the military leads to lessened fighting strength? We saw this argument about gays, and about women, serving, and so far I have seen no evidence that this has lessened the strike capabilities. In fact, Russia with its all macho hazing fraternity build of a military has just proven that this model is no substitute for a respectful NCO driven military structure. Some evidence would be in order?
Dirk Manly
July 3, 2022 at 8:34 pm
One: they aren’t good social policies, they are replication of the same social policies which are shredded the fabric of the national culture. Over 50% of Americans now WELCOME the prospect of New York City, Los Angeles & San Francisco getting destroyed by nuclear weapons.
NYC has ALWAYS been a problem in American unity since even before Lexington & Concord, and almost prevented the creation of the U.S. under the current constitution, because they felt that they should be able to rule over the other 12 republics (despite doing the least for the Independence effort and willingly doing the most FOR the British Army & Navy).
Most Americans see, LA as a cultural cesspool and NYC & SF as the cultural cesspools and bankster enclaves.
Aaron R Kulkis
July 3, 2022 at 8:13 pm
USSR was a government by, for, and of Ashkenazi Jews.
Russia is a government by, for and of Russians.
There’s no rebranding. Learn some actual history before posting idiotic garbage on the web.
Aaron R Kulkis
July 3, 2022 at 8:20 pm
There hasn’t been a REFORGER exercise since the 1990’s. The only people who participated in the last one and who are still part of the U.S. military were at the bottom of the rank structure (E-2 for enlisted men right out of initial entry training and 0-1 for newly commissioned officers). Even most who were career military retired over 5 years ago. There will not be a REFORGER. The present personnel in the various reserve units such as dock operations, who REFORGER depends on, haven’t even heard of it.
I was the last person in my entire expeditionary command who even knew what REFORGER was, (but never participated in one, because I was in combat arms units at the time), but they kicked me out for not taking the killer clot shot.
Which is good, because I have no desire to fight for the evil Globohomos anyway.
Jay
June 24, 2022 at 11:27 pm
Ok Russian rouble is strongest currency going, their inflation is falling, they are lowering interest rates, economy’s in the west are tanking, where do you get your info?
Jerry Mander
June 24, 2022 at 11:44 pm
Is Globalism a forbidden word? This war is about Globalism. Ukraine’s government is Globalist and Globalism’s purpose is a one-world government. Russia is nationalist, nations have to go. Therefor, make war with Russia using willing Ukraine as a proxy until Russia is so weak it can be taken over by Globalists just as the USA was.
tod
June 26, 2022 at 10:46 am
Racist spotted: ‘Globalist’= nazi code word for jew.
Putin weakened Russis by trying to conquer Ukraine, or rather displayed the existing Russian rot. Nations are not going away but some are rising and some are sinking into their own pig shit. Slava Ukraine and death to fascists.
Aaron R Kulkis
July 3, 2022 at 8:23 pm
Quit trying to suppress the truth.
This is why you have no true friends nobody likes you.
Major Kong
June 24, 2022 at 11:55 pm
The Ukraine War Is Bleeding Russia Dry and the Ukraine War Is Bleeding the USA Dry…….
Lance Benson
June 27, 2022 at 10:32 pm
“the Ukraine War is Bleeding the USA Dry”
Not close. The U.S. spent an average of 165 billion dollars a year for 20 years on Afghanistan and Iraq while the annual Gross National Product grew from something above 13 trillion dollars to just under 20 trillion dollars. The U.S. can do more than one thing at a time, as can Europe. Combined they have about 30 times the GNP of Russia.
Aaron Kulkis
July 3, 2022 at 10:48 pm
And 20 years of paying for Afghanistan and Iraq has bled the US dry.
Goran
June 25, 2022 at 12:10 am
Putin’s problem:
The largest country in the world by area, with its land barely used + terrifying demographic implosion
Putin’s solution:
Having hundreds of thousands of young Russians to either die or escape Russia while he tries to grab more land that will also be unused
Stefan Stackhouse
June 25, 2022 at 11:17 am
Not to worry – there are plenty of Chinese eager to move into Siberia and set up shop there. Depopulation of Russia need not be a problem. Needing to learn Mandarin might become one.
speedster
June 25, 2022 at 12:25 am
I have calculated that the Russian invasion force in Ukraine is approximately 82,000, after leaving about 20% of the pre invasion army in Russia proper. If the conflict continues, at the death rate of 300 per day, the Russian force will be depleted in 9 months. However if wounded as a multiple of 3 times dead are taken into account, the russian depletion will be 270/4 = 68 days.
It seems unlikely, despite Putin s apparent desperation, that he will deploy the remaining 20% of the Russian army into ukraine, since who or what would protect Russian borders.
It would become imperative to the russians after one month, to do something about their reduced forces, being almost halved. It is at this point where either Putin runs up the white flag of surrender, or finally takes the risk of mobilisation. At the moment Putin is reducing what remains of Russia’s original standing army of 280,000, and almost half are either dead or wounded.
Eugene Westerland
June 25, 2022 at 2:14 am
Your comments are a little incomplete with respect to LBJ bugging of Nixon made him aware that Nixon was undercutting his 1967 peace talks by contacting So. Vietnamese and pushing their pullout from talks. Tapping/bugging was illegal so Johnson didn’t expose what he knew about Nixon’s actions.
Truth
June 25, 2022 at 2:55 am
If you think Russia is deterred by or did not factor in socio economic consequences then your entire submission is wrong. You didn’t consider the background that Russia has been conquering territories for hundreds of years facing these same socio economic, military and political problems before trying to explain today’s problems. . Sometimes not every situation requires a textbook model to explain it but a microscopic view why things happen. Historians will tell you for Russia land is life, more like they have need to be as far apart for potential invasion maybe left alone to rule themselves as they seem fit.
marcjf
June 25, 2022 at 3:19 am
My view would be that this is not a war of conquest per se, but a war to destroy the Ukrainian regime and damage that country’s ability to threaten Russia’s interests (as they see them) to such an extent that it will take generations to recover. It has also always been likely that Russia seeks to fully control the Black Sea coast and will not stop until it has achieved that.
It is also an economic war against the West and the petro-dollar in particular, and it is my view that sanctions were always expected and now seem to be backfiring.
At this point in time therefore I would assess the Russians are winning both the shooting and economic conflicts.
TrustbutVerify
June 25, 2022 at 8:40 am
The second act will play out soon. The Russians will have to stabilize the front and stand down to rest and reconstitute forces. This will allow the Ukrainians to also stabilize the front. Once they stalemate, it will give Ukraine time to build up a mobile, concentrated reserve for counter attacks and a counter offensive.
We don’t know what they have now for such an attack, but pinning the Russians on the center battlefront and launching a counterattack at Kherson that draws away troops would open up the Kharkiv front for a counteroffensive that would cut the Russian GLOCs (ground line of communications) and rail links and get a mobile armored force into the Russian rear on the central front. It would destabilize the whole Russian force.
If the Ukrainians don’t have such forces now, a few months of stalemate would allow such a force to be formed and trained on Western equipment (training being key on tanks, missile systems, jets). Once this better equipped, better trained, force is available it would be very hard for Russia to hang onto Donetsk and Luhansk or the coastal areas outside of the Crimea. If they get mobile Harpoons, it will be hard for the Russians to have a Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol or Azov Sea.
marcjf
June 28, 2022 at 3:07 am
I think this a a good analysis of the hopes of the Ukraine and the West. However I believe it is hard to understand the difference between the possible and the likely. Numbers matter and these are extremely opaque. Ukrainian claims of Russian losses seem to be accepted but not the other way around. I would judge both sides have been economical with the truth.
I’d estmate that the Ukrainians have (including reservists and foreign volunteers) committed 300,000 to 400,000 men and lost maybe 50,000 to 100,000 so far – losses (KIA, MIA, WIA) now running at maybe 1,000 per day. Russia has probably committed fewer soldiers but maybe lost more. The Ukrainians may have lost half or more of their equipment with a fraction replaced from Western resupply. The remainder is short of Soviet standard ammo. The Russians have lost about half of their initial equipment, but have reserve stocks as replacements and no apparent shortage of ammo. The Russians do seem short of infantry.
I would say it is a moot point as to which military is in worse condition just now, and the Ukrainians are currently suffering significant setbacks in the Donetsk battles. The Russian strategy would I think be to keep up the pressure and try to ensure the Ukrainians cannot recover. Tt is reported that the Russians have up to 40 BTGs in reserve. It is unknown if these are refitted or hollowed out. And in the end that may be the decisive factor – the existence of fresh reserves.
phil stacy
June 25, 2022 at 9:42 am
Ukraine is worth many trillions of dollars and the war is an investment. Russian lives are not worth much to the Russian government. Putin has the long term view of a chess player.
Dirk Manly
July 3, 2022 at 8:56 pm
Ukrainian lives are literally of negative value to the international bankers and their friends in Isntrael who want The Ukraine (literally The Borderlands) depopulated so that the Ashkenazis living on the Mediterranean Sea can move back to the Black Sea coast.
Too bad for them that they Russian army is monkey wrenching that plan by pretty soon occupying ALL of the Black Sea coast formerly held by Kiev.
Mitchell Moore
June 25, 2022 at 10:09 am
The greatest benefit of the Vietnam war was that it gave the Asian Tigers time to emerge from the Bronze Age as economic powers and allies on China’s southern flank.
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand are nice to have on our side.
Some Dude
June 25, 2022 at 10:40 am
A lot of the articles on the Ukraine-Russia war just sound like whistling past the graveyard. First of all, no matter how bad Russia is being damaged, Ukraine is being damaged far more. Second, we cannot tell from the “media” exactly what is happening; a lot of the footage supposedly showing how Ukraine is dominating Russian forces are actually from OTHER wars; such as the Azeri-Armenian wars. We never see footage of Russian troops destroying Ukrainian troops but it must be happening because Ukraine slipped and admitted they are losing up to 200 soldiers A DAY. So skepticism about what is going on is warranted.
Furthermore, equating Ukraine to Vietnam seems sophomoric; the US had NO national interest in Vietnam and wasn’t a neighbor of Vietnam. Whether we think it is paranoid and irrational, Putin has long said Ukraine is an existential issue for Russia. The situations are not at all similar.
No one really knows for sure what the outcome will be, but it seems likely that Russia will not fold, and will conquer at least part of the Ukraine, and then reset. Ukraine will likely be a broken state for decades.
As for the Russian economy, look for them to try to initiate a parallel economy and financial system that includes the two most populous countries in the world, China and India, and probably several states suffering under US sanctions. This will make US economic warfare (e.g. sanctions regimes) less effective.
Time will tell what happens, but it seems likely Russia will not be deterred from making sure Ukraine will never be an invasion route or host nuclear weapons, and Ukraine will be far more damaged than Russia, and that US economic warfare’s effectiveness with be reduced.
Thomas Chappell
June 25, 2022 at 7:47 pm
Plus when things stabalize with Russia controlling as much or more of Ukraine as they do now and NATO declines to enter war on Ukaine’s behalf, how long will the Ukrainian army and right wing let Zelinsky stay in power? And when he is deposed what narrative will be available for Ukraine to sell to the West?
OIF Combat Vet
June 25, 2022 at 10:42 am
BS! The ruble is at a seven year high and China is Russia’s largest importer of oil. We still can’t secure our own borders, provide formula for our babies and are borrowing money from China to pay for our proxy war with Russia in the Ukraine…Looks more like we are the losers.
DT
June 25, 2022 at 7:27 pm
India has tripled their imports of Russian oil and the USA is still importing like it was British oil and not Russian. Actually Russia is selling more oil and gas today at much higher prices and is not using dollars for payment.
Russia has already won this and is just waiting for the last Ukrainian to die or run.
James Versluis
June 28, 2022 at 12:49 pm
You don’t seem to have the foggiest idea what the sanctions are doing or the situation at large. I don’t know if that’s willful on your part or you just don’t care to know, but the truth of the matter is entirely the opposite of what you’re trying to sell:
1. The sanctions are going to destroy the Russian economy for the next two generations even if they ended tomorrow: so much foreign talent left that Russia will have trouble even making their OWN high-end weapons, but the damage is throughout their entire economy. ESPECIALLY in tech. This is easy to educate yourself on.
2. Not only will the Russians NOT be selling more oil to China, but the era of Russians selling China oil at ALL is completely over and won’t survive the next winter’s freeze.
The Siberian oil strata (which sells the sour-crude oil of Eastern Siberia to the Chinese) was COMPLETELY run by Shell and BP and their technicians. They all left, down to a man. That means they will eventually shut down. Same thing happened to Venezuela when they chased the same companies out, except this is much worse because of the geography:
Once the Siberian lines running crude to China freeze up this winter, they will NEVER enter operation again. Ever. Once the oil lines running through perma-frost of Siberia freeze, they are destroyed. Stopping oil in frozen ground destroys the pipeline.
The pipelines will have to be created again from scratch. That will take 8 to 12 years to do. Oh: and Russia and China BOTH don’t have the capability to do that any more. It was much cheaper and more efficient to use Western technicians after the Berlin Wall fell, so the Russian engineers who could make pipelines in permafrost are now gone back to help Alaskan lines.
So no: “the Chinese will just buy Russian oil” not only won’t happen, but we’re on the verge of the Russians STOPPING the oil ENTIRELY. The era of Russians selling any oil at all to China is now over.
The ONLY chance Russia has to keep the Siberian sour-crude lines going will be to stop the war RIGHT NOW and quickly invite the high skilled Western techs back. Go look up Peter Zeihan on YouTube and listen to him talk about Siberia: This is a good one called “China Won’t Be Getting Anymore Oil From Russia”:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nAVh22Qf6o
You’re not just wrong, you’re Super Extra Wrong: a whole new category of Wrong that deserves it’s own Nobel Duh prize.
Don Tveter
June 25, 2022 at 10:50 am
I recall in the movies Doctor Zhivago and/or War and Peace that the Czar sent his army of peasants against Germany. Well, there was nothing in it for the peasants, they were poorly supplied and the officers treated them with contempt. They killed their officers and returned to Russia to overthrow the Czar. I’ll predict the same thing happens this time.
Hawkpilot
June 25, 2022 at 2:44 pm
If the Europeans were smart, and they are not, they would offer 50k euros and EU citizenship to any Russian soldier that would defect. Just walk across, hand your rifle to the nearest Ukrainian soldier, and head to Germany.
James Versluis
June 28, 2022 at 3:46 pm
I was about to say “no way, that’s crazy. That’s SO MUCH MONEY that if you got up to 100,000 soldiers to defect, it would be…
…hm. Just five billion: a teeny amount even compared to the arms being spent.
Lessee here: uh, 330,000 troops would be, carry the 1….
….just 16.5 billion if the entire Russian land forces defected.
That’s just one third of the CURRENT arms bill the Americans are doing.
Holy crap, that might actually work. Hell, it’s even cheap. They’d all be young men able to work and clearly brighter than the average Russian, too.
Well done!
KB
June 25, 2022 at 1:54 pm
Sometimes I wonder if Putin is channeling Peter the Great or Douglas Haig. He seems determined that this latest push will move his drinks cabinet six inches closer to Lviv.
Mordecai
June 25, 2022 at 2:15 pm
It gets easier by the day to spot the ‘ NeoCon propaganda spew ‘; “ Bleeding Russia dry ‘..
Let’s examine this statement to determine its veracity :
To date Russia has yet to deploy any first tier forces or equipment to the Ukraine AO in terms of ground forces or units. Therefore they’ve suffered casualties to their conscripts, gained AO experience for the same, and lost a few Generals ( if you believe the propaganda … )
The only to top tier casualties they’ve suffered which resulted in a change of AO operations was the loss of their Naval units to American anti-ship missiles in Ukrainian hands.
They’ve achieved stated objectives in the East and tied up possible Ukrainian counter attacks in the East by keeping the Ukrainians busy in the Middle and West while committing only token forces to that objective.
Prognosis: Russia completes goals in Ukraine by September at latest, July at soonest.
Future moves: Kalingrad… why is NATO so set on starting WWIII there ? Kalingrad is RUSSIAs only year round port into the Atlantic… there is NO POSSIBLE WAY they let the blockade stand and NATO knows this…therefore one must acknowledge that GLOBAL NUCLEAR EXCHANGE will result from ANY direct military engagement between Russia and the United States. RUSSIA has long held the position that if they would cease to exist because of military action by America that they would not hesitate to destroy America as well.. and RUSSIA has by far the most numerous and capable Ballistic Nuclear force in the World today.
In conclusion the author, God curse his soul, is promoting global genocide by Nuclear Armageddon: SHAME AND A POX UPON YOU ROBOT KELLY !
KB
June 25, 2022 at 9:12 pm
“Russia completes goals in Ukraine”
Reminds me of Tacitus: “They made a desert and called it peace.”
Russia’s goal was to completely flatten the areas of Ukraine where the Russian-speaking population lived? Does Russia have the money to rebuild it? No. And the land will be difficult to cultivate, what with all the shrapnel and duds embedded in it. And you believe that the Ukrainians are going to become happy, prosperous Russian citizens after they’ve been submitted to constant bombardment and their personal property has been plundered by Russian soldiers whose own failed state can’t provide for them? I suppose you can rule the conquered territory through terror, and Russia, in its Soviet past, has had a lot of experience in this, but it’s expensive, which will further bleed Russia’s precarious finances.
Your attitude towards Russia’s casualties is touching: “Oh, they’re only conscripts.” By the way, casualties to airborne forces have been severe enough that their general has been fired. Are those not first-tier troops? And Russia has no better weapons, as the money allocated to produce them, subtracting deposits in Cyprus banks and payments on palatial dachas and mega-yachts, is insufficient.
As a matter of interest, does the Russian language even have a word for “subtle”?
mcswell
June 26, 2022 at 7:13 pm
“lost a few Generals ( if you believe the propaganda…” Well, if you believe the Russians, too. The Russians have admitted to losing a number of generals in Ukraine fighting.
As for the sinking of the Moskva, no, it was not by an American cruise missile. It was a Russian model cruise missile, improved by the Ukrainians.
I’ll leave your other errors for others to point out.
Old Desert Coyote
June 25, 2022 at 3:12 pm
The problem with all this analysis is that everyone is using the expansion of territory as it’s basis of analysis. I think the real reason was not about acquiring more land but being able to project power internationally. To project power one must have a Navy. (China isn’t building a blue water navy just because they nothing better to do.)
Russia needs a blue water navy to project power on a global basis. Russia has only one warm water port of any military significance and that is Sevastopol on the Crimean peninsula. What this war is all about is securing a land bridge from Russia Major to the Crimean peninsula for the support of the Russian navy and ship building.
circumspect
June 25, 2022 at 8:59 pm
What can Russia win? Security from invasion as if that has never happened, the best farmland in the world, 138 million tons of oil, 1,118 billion cubic meters of natural gas, 79,483 thousand tons of gas condensate, titanium, coal, manganese, iron ore. It is just a short list.
The Atlantic Putin propaganda is effective and interesting. Diplomacy has been sorely lacking. Keep upping the ante, your failures will continue inline. NATO will eventually kill every Ukrainian male by pushing them into a meat grinder making it a paradise for European men looking for brides.
KB
June 26, 2022 at 5:52 pm
So you admit it…it was all about stealing another country’s resources and had nothing to do with the Nazi nonsense?
Serious people have debated in the past whether or not the Kremlin should be allowed to control satellite countries on its borders in order to ease its paranoia, but what is the morality of forcing subject peoples under the rule of a brutal kleptocracy whose paranoia can never be sated?
Charles XII, Napoleon and Hitler never faced a nuclear-armed Russia. Nobody wants to invade Russia now (well, maybe China, but if it isn’t already, Russia is going to be China’s satellite before too long).
It isn’t the so-called “Atlantic” countries causing Ukrainian men to resist. It is memories of life under the various Russian empires, and the current behaviour of Russia’s plundering hordes in their country that’s behind Ukraine’s resistance. If the Ukrainians really are Russia’s brothers, maybe Russian troops can give back everything they stole, and buy their own washing machines!
Scott's Bad
June 25, 2022 at 9:14 pm
Geeze, there is either a lot of misunderstanding here, or purposeful distortion. First, the West has been pushing Zelensky not to negotiate, in fact he walked away from the table in Turkey fairly early on. Zelensky could have avoided his country’s destruction by negotiating in Turkey, he has since rejected talks until softening more recently.
Russia, wouldn’t be in this deep if the West hadn’t made the job much harder by giving support and weapons to the idiot comedy actor Zelensky’s, government, to fight a proxy war that every serious person knows Ukraine cannot win.
The media hoodwinked the American people using American’s natural instinct and inclination to help the underdog against the “evil” empire. It was all BS.
The US and EU stated that their goal is to “hurt Russia”, not save Ukraine. Ukraine has been used cynically as a proxy war stooge. The Ukrainian people and their military is nothing but fodder for a Western war with Russia.
Then you have to ask, who has been hurt worse. There is no doubt this is going to be very tough on Russia, but the US and Europe economies are being FLATTENED, as we speak, by massive inflation that Biden policies and sanctions driven ruinous energy prices have triggered. Not to mention the $50-60 Billion we have sunk into Ukraine. This is killing average Americans; We will shortly see a recession as a result.
Europe, in one of the most bonehead moves in modern history, sanctioned its own energy supply, and will likely have energy shortages this winter. Germany is now scrambling to resurrect old coal fired plants to replace the loss of capacity from Russian gas fired electricity plants
Russia supplies 40% of Europe’s energy.
Meanwhile the sanctions have not been the “kill shot” to the Russian economy US policy idiots thought. Why? Because it turns out that everyone needs the gas, oil, and resources Russia sells, including China and India. Russia has buyers of for its energy. And Russia has managed to walk around SWIFT in many cases.
And did you notice that about 80% of the globe does NOT support the US/Europe position on Ukraine?
The bottom line is we should NEVER have become involved in Ukraine. What started as a skirmish between Russia and Ukraine has become another pointless war and a drag on America. WTF. Ukraine, is not an American ally, it is a corrupt country, partially controlled by actual Nazis.
Biden’s weak and inept administration has cost America BILLIONS with no benefit in sight, except, I suspect, a Benefit to the Biden family and his cronies.
Wake up and be more critical about this unnecessary trumped up war.
Brian Foley
June 26, 2022 at 10:21 am
The Russian “juggernaut” of the Cold War is a mere shadow of its former self but has the potential to do real harm. The West has an opportunity here to bleed the Russians literally white without the risk of direct conflict. Everyday the Russians gain ground in Ukraine at a terrible price to the Russian military and regardless how it eventually ends it will be a pyrrhic victory. The best outcome would be for Russia to abandon this crazy effort to “get the band back together” before it destroys its military and its reputation. Putin has done incredible damage to the reputation of the Russian armed forces as well as the Ukraine and he’ll pay a price, at least the Russians as a whole will.
Donald Link
June 26, 2022 at 1:00 pm
I believe the term “Pyrrhic victory” applies. To which side? Take your pick.
DS
June 26, 2022 at 11:20 pm
Your discussion of the standard lore on Viet Nam is not correct, though it has some elements of the truth.
First, the US was in the war to stop Soviet/Russian expansionism, the very thing we are seeing presently. It was not to gain anything of value in Viet Nam, but to “contain” the Russian empire.
Second, Richard Nixon did win the war, sort of. After a massive military and bombing campaign, he brought the North Vietnamese to the bargaining table, which led to a reasonable settled peace. What brought the war to failure was the same thing as happened last year in Afghanistan: Democrats took power after Nixon resigned, and quickly betrayed our allies, reneging on the payments promised to them to have a good defense against the insurgents
On the other hand, there is a similarity to Afghanistan that supports part of your narrative: the American people, primarily informed by soldiers who had gotten to know the people and situation in those countries, became disgusted with the people who were our allies, with their corruption and overall vileness (e.g. Afghan men raping young boys). People simply didn’t see any value in defending these people.
John
June 27, 2022 at 7:34 am
Hmmm — by some accounts Russia is actually doing well, as exports to large Asian countries are doing well and prices are up. Are we deluding ourselves …
Lance Benson
June 27, 2022 at 10:40 pm
Russian exports to Asia are up because they are down in Europe.
Russian imports from everywhere, including China, are way down, and it’s affecting Russia’s ability to manufacture anything complex.
Lance Benson
June 27, 2022 at 10:37 pm
“appears close to fully capturing Luhansk and Donetsk”
Russia is close to fully capturing Luhansk, but about 45% of Donetsk remains in Ukrainian hands and a significant amount is quite unlikely to fall to Russia.
Oddhan
June 28, 2022 at 2:49 pm
I don’t disagree, but is there anything to suggest Russia won’t be able to grind their way across Ukraine before they run out of ammunition and conscripts? There’s no reason to believe the people of Russia will rise up against the war, wives of soldiers are even encouraging atrocities. Ukraine has limited resources and though they may be better one to one, they don’t have the manpower to take back anything. This war may be a long one, longer than political interests in the West can stay focused. In such a war, the advantage goes to the side that can keep throwing bodies into the grinder.
Aaron R Kulkis
July 3, 2022 at 7:38 pm
Proof that a PhD isn’t an indicator of intelligence or good judgement. Putin isn’t invested in this war anywhere as much as the Russian public who have been demanding military intervention to protect the Donbass since the Banderist militias started bombarding civilians in the Donbass 8 years ago.
Putin tried peace and negotiating for 8 years, while EVERYONE ELSE had wanted a fight. The population of the Donbass, in each liberated town and city says the same thing to Russian & even Chechnyan troops: “We have been waiting 8 years for you to come to our aid and protect us.”
It’s absolutely heartbreaking.