Democrats have spent the past year poised for a midterm election defeat. President Biden’s approval rating has been historically low. Inflation has been historically high. And as historical trends suggest, the party in control of the White House, Senate, and House, typically has a tough go during the midterms.
Yet now, a string of recent legislative victories have given Democrats cause to be optimistic; the momentum is swinging.
The Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the PACT Act, all signed into law this month, give Democrats something tangible to show their constituents. On the intangible side of things, Democrats got a boost – counterintuitively – through a bit of bad news; when the conservative-majority Supreme Court revoked abortion rights in Dodd, the bulk of the general population rallied in support of preserving abortion rights (as demonstrated in conservative-dominated Kansas) – a position that the Democrats represent. But compounding the Democrats’ optimism is the opposition, the GOP, who is running a relatively weak batch of Trump-endorsed Senate candidates.
A Weak GOP Candidate Bench for Senate?
In Pennsylvania, the GOP is running TV-doctor Mehmet Oz – who is struggling. “Multiple polls show Oz, celebrity doctor and raw food aficionado, trailing [Lt. Gov.] Fetterman by double digits,” POLITICO reported. “So far, [Oz’s] attempts to turn the tables on Fetterman’s incessant social media trolling have fallen flat – such as last night, when Oz tried to highlight his opponent’s trust fund past but ended up in a public discussion of his own extensive property holdings.”
Oz won the GOP primary on the back of Trump’s support – an endorsement that shocked Trump’s advisors. “Donald Trump’s decision to endorse celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz in the Pennsylvania Senate race has divided local Republican Party officials and stunned close advisers who thought he had decided to stay out of the contest to pick a Republican candidate,” Reuters reported last April. Now, Oz is trailing his DNC opponent and clinging to his nascent political career.
Another Trump-backed celebrity is lagging behind in the Georgia primary. Former NFL-running back and University of Georgia legend Herschel Walker is running a gaffe-infused campaign. Walker is “avoiding contact – with opponents, with the media, with good sense,” Adam Van Brimmer wrote for the Savannah Morning News. “He won’t debate his Republican primary opponents. He won’t appear for events that aren’t in tightly controlled environments. He won’t speak to groups other than those guaranteed to be friendly to him. He won’t sit for Q&As with anybody other than Fox News, Newsmax, or other fringe media.” Georgia Democrats are promoting the idea that Walker is afraid to take the stage against Reverend Warnock because Walker’s “bizarre statements and gaffes have him scared to take the stage.” Eh, maybe. Walker has said some kooky things, like suggesting that “our good air decided to float over to China’s bad air,” that the continued existence of apes disproved evolution, and that he possessed a “dry mist” product that could “kill any COVID on your body.”
More damning, Walker is also facing allegations of abuse. “Voters are hearing soundbites of Walker’s ex-wife recalling how he once held a gun to her head,” POLITICO reported. Naturally, those voters have been dissuaded. “Walker’s string of gaffes has him running consistently behind Warnock – and crucially – GOP Gov. Brian Kemp.”
The GOP is faring slightly better in Ohio, where Trump-endorsed J.D. Vance is running a tight race against Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan. Vance, a Yale Law School graduate, with a background in venture capital, rose to prominence upon the release of his book Hillbilly Elegy – which gave Vance some down-home-Ohio credibility. Now, that home-grown credibility is being scrutinized. “A run of negative stories has cast doubt on the Vance campaign’s acumen,” POLITICO reported, “and the former venture capitalist has been badly outraised — leaving him dependent on assistance from outside groups as Ryan hammers [Vance’s] past life as financier.”
And in Arizona, GOP candidate Blake Masters is struggling to gain traction – despite the backing of Silicon Valley billionaire Peter Thiel. Masters’ problem may be that he is too conservative. The American Independent described Masters as a “racist venture capitalist” who “presented himself as “unapologetically” and “100%” against abortion from the moment of conception.”
While the performance of Democrats may not inspire voters to help the DNC keep their legislative majorities, fear of the alternative – weird, unsympathetic, incoherent, phony GOP candidates – just might.
Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, he joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. He lives in Oregon and listens to Dokken. Follow him on Twitter @harrison_kass.
