Key Points – Vladimir Putin is highly unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, despite his threatening rhetoric and updated nuclear doctrine.
-The primary constraints are the risk of looking desperate to his own people and, crucially, alienating key partners like China, which has repeatedly warned against nuclear escalation.
U.S. Soldiers, assigned to the 1st Battalion, 64th Armor Regiment, 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division, conduct gunnery with M1A2 Abrams tanks during exercise Combined Resolve V at 7th Army Joint Multinational Training Command in Grafenwoehr, Germany, Oct. 8, 2015. Combined Resolve is designed to exercise the U.S. Army’s regionally aligned force to the U.S. European Command area of responsibility with multinational training at all echelons. Approximately 4,600 participants from 13 NATO and European partner nations will participate. The exercise involves around 2,000 U.S. troops and 2,600 NATO and Partner for Peace nations. Combined Resolve is a preplanned exercise that does not fall under Operation Atlantic Resolve. This exercise will train participants to function together in a joint, multinational and integrated environment and train U.S. rotational forces to be more flexible, agile and to better operate alongside our NATO Allies. (U.S. Army photo by Visual Information Specialist Gertrud Zach/released)
-Instead, Russia’s strategy has devolved into a war of attrition, relying on overwhelming Ukraine with mass conventional strikes from its vast arsenal of drones and missiles.
-Therefore, the most effective strategy to contain Russia is not fearing its nuclear bluff but continuing to bolster Ukraine’s layered and innovative air defense systems to neutralize these conventional attacks.
Vlad Won’t Nuke Ukraine, But Air Defenses Vital to Containment
Sunday’s barrage of 499 one-way attack drones and missiles launched by Russia against Ukraine was yet more retaliation by Putin for Ukraine’s “Operation Spiderweb” strategic attack on Russian bombers and bases.
The volleys have gone from nights with 350 drones and missiles in late May to the 479 launches on May 31 and now the peak of 499.
In this chapter of the war, containing Russia depends on air defenses. Mixed packages of drones and missiles have become Putin’s weapon of choice. The pattern for the big salvos has been to expend a few dozen missiles combined with hundreds of drones. A few missiles are air-launched; for example, a MiG-31K flung out a Kinzhal missile in one of the June attacks.
Nuclear Escalation
Putin is walloping Ukraine in part because he does not dare use nuclear weapons.
Of course, Putin wants the world rattled by his nuclear weapons. In September 2024, Putin oversaw a nuclear doctrine change, seemingly giving himself three new scenarios for using nuclear weapons. The first new condition was that “aggression against Russia from any non-nuclear state but involving or supported by any nuclear state” would be treated like a joint attack. That tried to tie in NATO nuclear nations Britain, France, and the US.
The second new condition was a threat of launch on warning, specifically, “Upon receipt of reliable information of a massive launch of air and space attack weapons and their crossing of the state border.” Condition three declared that “the case when the enemy, using conventional weapons, creates a critical threat to our sovereignty” would justify Russian nuclear retaliation.
Ukraine’s Defense
Yet these updates actually left Putin plenty of off-ramps. Notice Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was scrupulous in his claim that Ukraine acted alone in crafting and carrying out the June 1 drone strike on Russia.
Despite the doctrinal update, Putin’s hands are tied regarding nuclear retaliation. He can’t risk using a tactical nuclear weapon because it will make him look desperate in the eyes of the Russian people—and China. Putin’s response so far has been to launch mass drone attacks and label the airbase attacks as terrorism. This is a proven narrative, echoing Putin’s war against the Chechens, which solidified his political power in 2000. Putin downplayed Ukraine’s invasion of the Kursk region last year with similar language. His war mythology portrays Russia as “winning” even as the number of casualties mounts.
Putin Against a Chinese Wall
Beyond this, Putin has known for years that China will not tolerate the use of tactical nuclear weapons. China is the top dog in the “unlimited friendship,” and Xi Jinping also warned Putin to knock off the nuclear threats as far back as November 4, 2022. A Chinese embassy spokesman in Washington, DC, repeated the warning about “no escalation” last week.
Ukraine TOW Missile Attack. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Russia’s Big Missile Threat
With nukes off the table, Putin has invested in the rapid production of drones to carry out mass conventional attacks.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia has a stockpile of over 13,000 missiles, including roughly 11,000 missiles for the S-300/400 air defense systems, which Russia has already used in ground attack mode. Add in 600 Iskander ballistic missiles and an estimated 1,700 cruise missiles, including the air-launched Kalibr cruise missiles, ground-launched Oniks, and others. At this rate, Putin can fire missiles at Ukraine for years as long as Russia can keep producing drones.
By far, the most considerable volume by type comes from the Shahed 136/131 drones of Iran’s design. Russia produces Shahed drones at several locations. Near one factory, a freight train from China reportedly delivers drone engine parts each week.
“Russia is willing to sustain the high costs of a prolonged war in Ukraine,” SACEUR Gen. Christopher Cavoli warned in his April testimony. “Now entangled in an extended, largescale war, the Russian regime has refashioned its military, economic, and social structures to sustain what it describes as a long-term confrontation with the West—systemic changes that illustrate Russia’s intention to confront us into the foreseeable future,” Cavoli said. He estimated Russia can produce 250 Iskanders per year.
Ukrainian intelligence says Putin aims to set a buffer zone along the border and reignite a land drive for Kyiv in 2026. Whatever Putin’s gameplan, air defense for Ukraine, including its air force bases and energy infrastructure, is essential. The combination of the long-range Patriots, short-range NASAMs, and many other systems has enabled Ukraine to shoot down the majority of the weapons in Russia’s attacks. The Frankensam conversion of the Soviet-era Sa-11 Gadfly launcher, which fires US-made AIM-7 type Sparrow air-to-air missiles, is one improvisational success. Air defense over Ukraine will remain paramount in containing Putin.
About the Author: Dr. Rebecca Grant
Dr. Rebecca Grant, a Vice President at the Lexington Institute, is a national security analyst based in Washington, DC, specializing in defense and aerospace research and national security consulting. She has over 20 years experience working with the United States Air Force, United States Navy, and top aerospace clients. In addition, Dr. Grant has often appeared on television as an expert on national security for Fox News, Fox Business, CNN, and MSNBC and as a series regular on The Smithsonian’s Air Warriors.
