A Winter War in Ukraine Can Only Mean Trouble: As the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) say they hope their offensive reaches the city of Kherson by this winter, Russia continues preparation for a massive counterattack which could begin as early as next month. The results of that battle are likely to be bloody and destructive, but unlikely to settle the war one way or the other.
(Watch the author of this piece, 19FortyFive Contributing Editor Daniel L. Davis on Fox News discussing the war in Ukraine.)
To understand what is likely to happen in the phase of the war in November and December, it is useful to consider the flow of events between the start of the conflict and today. When Russia launched the war on February 24, it initially shocked the Ukrainian defenders and captured massive swaths of territory, including the regional capital city of Kherson by the seventh day. But once the initial shock wore off, Ukrainian troops stiffened and began launching fierce counterattacks, especially north of Kyiv.
By early April, Russian casualties had risen so high in both personnel and equipment, they were forced to withdraw from Kyiv and Kharkiv, repositioning to the east in the Donbas. Russia then began a new offensive and captured Mariupol, Severodonetsk, and Lysychansk by the first of July. But then, owing to significant losses of troops and tanks, Russia’s offensive began to run out of steam.
Ukraine took advantage of the slowdown in Putin’s drive to form an offensive punch of its own, and in late August began to launch twin offensives in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions. Initially, the Kherson drive failed, but the Kharkiv attack succeeded beyond Zelensky’s expectations. After recapturing thousands of square kilometers of territory, Ukraine’s offensive is now running out of steam itself, for many of the same reasons Russia’s Spring offensive had (significant loss of troops and armored vehicles).
Russia is now preparing its next round of offensive. When Zelensky’s troops humiliated Russian forces by taking so much territory in the Kharkiv region, Putin responded by unilaterally annexing part of eastern Ukraine and announcing the mobilization of hundreds of thousands of additional troops. As of today, Ukraine continues to try to grind out offensive actions against Russian troops in both the north and south, in an effort to capture as much territory as possible before the arrival of significant Russian troops. But that effort just got a lot harder.
In retaliation for the Ukrainian attack on the Kerch Bridge linking Crimea to Russia, Putin has launched hundreds of missiles and attack drones on scores of Ukrainian cities, dealing a significant blow to the power and transportation infrastructure in the country. The loss of energy won’t simply make life miserable for the Ukrainian civilians but will hamper Zelensky’s efforts to move troops around the battlefield and provide fuel and electricity necessary to sustain the war effort. Meanwhile, Russia appears to be readying for a major incursion into Ukraine, as early as November.
Throughout the Ukrainian offensives since August, Russian strategy appears to be a bend-but-don’t-break tactic, as they have conducted fighting withdrawals from numerous cities while inflicting as many casualties as possible on the attackers. The objective appears to be seeking to buy time for the arrival of major reinforcements resulting from Putin’s mobilization order. Since September, however, the Russian forces have been quietly stockpiling massive amounts of fuel and other supplies necessary to launch and sustain a major offensive; the largest buildup since the war began.
The mobilization of the Russian population has had major disruptions and has had abysmal results in some parts of Russia. But not all. There is also a patriotic element in Russian society that has been answering the call and after trying to correct some of the deficiencies, the Russian army is growing. No one can predict the outcome of the coming offensive, but the trends don’t favor Ukraine.
They have lost a lot of the initial momentum of their counteroffensive and have suffered significant losses, just as Russia began to attack critical infrastructure throughout the country at a level not seen since the war started, while simultaneously preparing to introduce potentially another one hundred thousand or more troops to the next phase of the war (with additional waves likely in the winter). The temperature has already started dropping into the 30s in Ukraine and typically from November through January, snow can be expected, along with sub-zero temperatures.
While Ukraine’s energy and industrial infrastructure continue to suffer battle damage, Russia’s energy reserves are virtually unlimited, and its military-industrial capacity has also been mobilized. By this winter, they will be producing a constant stream of war materiel and ammunition, while Ukraine will be almost completely dependent on supplies from the West that may or may not arrive in time or in required quantities.
It is clear, however, that wars are not fought on paper, and if anything has been made clear from the outset, the Ukrainian troops have been far more effective and resilient than anyone predicted prior to February. The harsh reality, however, is that the Russian military and government are likewise learning lessons and becoming hardened to the realities of full-scale war. No one can therefore predict with any accuracy how this next phase of war will unfold, but it is very clear that the level of death and destruction is about to rise considerably, making the life of Ukrainian civilians even more horrific.
Now a 1945 Contributing Editor, Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” Follow him @DanielLDavis.
October 13, 2022 at 7:06 pm
October 13, 2022 at 7:14 pm
winning side does not ask for negotiations on daily basis. russia will fall due to expanded western military aid and gained battle experience of ukr military
October 13, 2022 at 7:27 pm
Did Russia pack their winter underwear
October 13, 2022 at 7:30 pm
The article vastly over-estimates Russia’s situation and capabilities.
Russia has demonstrated appalling lack of leadership, military organisation, logistics capability, attention to basic support and maintenance.
Russia has not conducted “fighting withdrawals, they took to abject flight, abandoning wounded, dead and materiel in abundance. Likewise Ukraine counteroffensives have not ” run out of steam”, they have been consolidating gains, mine clearing and reversing the appalling damage inflicted by Russian vicious and incompetent occupation.
There is little capacity in Russia to ramp up armament and ammunition production and flow. The steady regression to 1960s tanks and earlier equipment, lack of uniforms and equipment basics point to the parlous condition of the Russian situation. Russia is a third world country with a previous thin veneer of modernity. It is rapidly reverting to its third world reality.
If the intent o fthe article is to ‘big up’ Russia to prompt greater Western support, then this puff piece does it well. If it is supposed to be a sober assessment of the coming winter war, it is woeful.
I don’t expect this to get printed but it might be some feedback to publisher and author.
October 13, 2022 at 7:43 pm
i thought they had fired this Putin lover.
he has not got one prediction right just yet.
and this one is not either.
Putin is an idiot fortunately.
Strikes on civilian assets have zero military value but they have justified the West to provide advanced air defense capabilities to Ukraine
watch the Russian army collapse just like in 1917
breaking Russia up into 1000 pieces is necessary for the world peace
we need to kick Russia into the stone age once and for all
they have been doing this s..t for 70 years
enough is enough
October 24, 2022 at 11:03 pm
Typical Yankee garbage comment. We can only hope the terrorists of the USA join the party and enter Ukraine so USA can be defeated and walk away like they did Vietnam, Afghanistan, Korea, Syria and all the other failed ‘democracy’ terrorist attacks that you so enjoy doing. Though this time, I really home that you are hit on your home soil, again, so hopefully you get the idea to stay in your box.
October 13, 2022 at 7:47 pm
The US and its NATO allies better start to deliver to the Ukraine army all the advanced weapons designed to stop the massive Russian armor invasion, instead of dole them out in piecemeal like it has for the last 7 months. The US should provide the smart sub-munitions that are fitted in HIMAR and artillery’s shells to the Ukraine army so it can halt any Russia armor advance. These weapons were used with deadly result on the Iraqi army and they will help to check the Russian counter attack.
October 13, 2022 at 8:27 pm
Are you cool with your assessments still. Last I check you got nothing right about the war and you are singing the same toon again.
I am going to say your analysis of the war has been off time and time again.
October 13, 2022 at 8:30 pm
A harsh winter will test the nerves of even the most patient, plus a promised flood of cash and avalanche of weapons will turn the fighting into great patriotic war-like madness.
Time to force Biden into banging his balls by using nukes. End the fighting by spring 2023.
October 13, 2022 at 8:44 pm
What expanded military aid? I guess no one read the CNBC report recently that said the EU is tapped out and the US doesn’t have the industrial capability any more to keep up with the Russians. That is what happens when your corporations deindustrialize the country.
October 13, 2022 at 8:59 pm
You can count on Daniel Davis to say the contrary of the actuality when Russia is concerned.
Actually it’s the same technique that Russian disinformation uses..
I guess Davis is an admirer..?
October 13, 2022 at 9:07 pm
The West is taking Russia down. All Russia has at this point (other than stuff built in the 50’s) is nukes. Guess what, so do we. Plus there is cyber war, which no one ever mentions.
you know you want it..
October 13, 2022 at 9:09 pm
The man! The legend!
Daniel Davis, soon to rise to the level of Steven Seagal!
(insert picture of Steven Seagal eating carrots from Lukashenko’s hands.. google it!)
October 13, 2022 at 9:11 pm
Cleary Davis wasnt paying attention to what happened last winter when Russia was forced to retreat from Kyiv, Sumy, and more…in the winter. Not to mention their soldiers getting frostbite because they thought the war would be over in 3 days and were not properly prepared.
This year we have plenty of evidence coming in from Russians themselves that their conscripts are less than well supplied, and that they will be forced to buy their own gear – if they can actually afford it – or find it when the prices arent being gouged by profiteering Russians. Some are even being told that they should ask their wives for female sanitary products to absorb blood if/when they get wounded. Have fun with that on the battlefield when Ukraine is raining down GMLRS rounds from HIMARS with warheads having 180,000 molten hot Tungsten steel fragments…per missile. At 6 missiles per pod thats 1 Million molten hot steel fragments blasting out per pod, as an air bust munition those fragments cover a fairly wide radius. Footage is already circulating of those rounds turning Russian armored vehicles into Swiss Cheese.
As well, despite Russia’s phony claims, the Kerch Bridge will take weeks to repair at best. Russia’s own people published footage of the damage from the rail lines showing Both rail lines have been damaged…and satellite images from Maxar show the ferry cue is miles long with trucks waiting. It will take a massive alternate supply effort for Russia to compensate for that loss. And the main rail line heading from east to west through the south of Ukraine is in firing range of HIMARS.
Time is especially running out for Russia’s troops in Kherson who rely on supply from Crimea. Ukraine is setting conditions for further advances by grinding down their forces with precision strikes, and denial of adequate resupply for such a large force. With the next advance in Kherson, they will likely be in artillery range of the Beryslav beachhead on the Dnipro, and perhaps even in HIMARS range of Chaplynka on the other side of the river where there is a very important airbase that the Russians use.
By contrast, Ukraine is being resupplied by 50+ countries. They are being sent hundreds of thousands of cold weather clothing items. And they are about to get another 10,000 fresh NATO trained troops from the program in the UK. I will take them over 100,000 Russian conscripts any day of the week.
Bottom line: Just as Davis has continued to be wrong about basically everything he has written about this war… he is wrong again this time as well. Time will tell how fast Ukraine proves him wrong, but the odds are strong they will do precisely that.
October 13, 2022 at 9:34 pm
The best option is a Peace Conference.
The U. S. has the leverage to make that happen.
Zelensky and his ministers take an “you owe us” attitude.
The American People owe them nothing.
On a humanitarian basis the U. S. should intervene on the side of peace. There never was a vital national security interest in Ukraine for the American People.
The American People are losing interest in this U. S. foreign policy blob project (Ukraine) and are tuning out the toadies constant babble (enough problems at home). These toadies, who go against the interest of the American People to put a foreign country’s interest above our own, have worn out their welcome.
So, I do hope a Peace Conference will be held.
The Ukrainian leadership will never willingly accept peace (Why give up the shakedown gravy train of American taxpayer money).
But a firm U. S. position will force Ukraine to accept the unthinkable… Peace.
October 13, 2022 at 9:44 pm
What an idiot Davis is. He’s been predicting doom and gloom for the Ukrainians since the first week of the war. I’m sure the USSR was sure they’d overwhelm Finland during the Winter War in 1939 also.
Russians will continue to be undertrained, under equipped and poorly lead regardless of the season. Plus, regardless of how many supplies you are stockpiling, they still need to get within 60 km of the front. “HELLO HIMARS” you moron. Meanwhile, the western Ally’s are promising millions of pieces of winter warfare gear to allow Ukrainian forces to fight through out this winter.
Mmmmm. A force being told to bring tampons and sanitary pads to the battlefield because their military has no supplies against a Ukrainian force getting full kit on a routine basis. Seriously, how does this idiot Davis have a job as an analyst??!!
Dr. Scooter Van Neuter
October 13, 2022 at 9:50 pm
In a war of attrition, Russia will, unfortunately, undoubtedly prevail.
October 13, 2022 at 10:07 pm
The is technically over when France say they would not nuke Russia,if they nuked Ukraine Google France Nuke Russia
October 13, 2022 at 10:59 pm
Yes, the nation that “lost” over one million soldiers is going to properly train, equip, and support over 300K conscripts in the middle of winter.
Nothing unrealistic about that scenario at all.
October 13, 2022 at 11:31 pm
Biden’s proxy war in europe is going to bite him (or deep state / shadow govt/great shadow power cabal) in the backside.
Biden, put into white house by deep state cabal, thinks he’s a Mike Tyson, able to outdo both bill clinton & bush.
But Biden is d-u-m-b, totally dumb, or fubar dumb like Hitler.
Hitler failed to look real good at map of USSR before launching his ruinous war.
Biden has again also failed to look at map of Russia. It is no isolated Iraq, but instead has many long borders with many friendly nations.
Also, Russia has nuclear arsenal, despite its arsenal being now clearly inferior to America’s.
Biden’s war, especially after winter of 2022-2023, will compel Russia to reassess its view of Washington and regard it as a power that strictly & only respects military might, especially nuclear might, not any form of human reasoning or talking.
Thus after Russia uses nukes successfully against biden’s foot soldiers in europe, it must supply similar weapons to other countries like Iran and Armenia.
Armenia is another hotspot for US attention.The artsakh problem can be solved by negotiation, but US not interested in such a solution.
Armenia’s tormentor is Azerbaijan, an entity closely allied to turkiye which is an ironclad ally of Washington.
Turkiye is main or top bedpartner for US due to it fully enabling CIA & DoD operatives to work in Syria and Iraq both bordering turkiye.
Turkiye also hosts radar stations that are part of America’s vital globalized ABM system that’s focused on ensuring US winning coming nuclear wars.
Thus Russia must now start thinking on sending nukes to Yerevan.
More nukes all over godamn place is the right answer to Washington’s current approach of rejecting reasoning or negotiations and opting for proxy wars, economic wars, violent regime change and other uncivilized means.
Washington only believes in and respects military might and the best military might is a worldwide nuclear arsenal.
Other than supplying nukes to Washington’s potential enemies, Russia must also supply Hi-Tech delivery systems like underwater torpedo drones and hypersonic gliders and/or maneuvering nuclear-carrying warheads and space-capable FOBS craft.
Thus Biden is going to get bitten very very hard in the behind.The deep state is going to go bonkers over this bite.
October 13, 2022 at 11:53 pm
Daniel wrong again. Winter war favours those who can fight in the dark. C 9 hours of daylight in Kharkiv at the winter solstice versus 15 hours daily the Russians could see in summer. It’s ukraine that has had years of shipments of night vision gear. Probably well over 20k of them. It’s a force multiplier in winter.
Then Daniel thinks these Russian soldiers maning trench defensive lines are going to be dressed for the occasion. They weren’t as the war started, are not now,and most likely will not.
Lastly in the southern districts and ctimea they won’t be supplied adequately. Didn’t he read the pentagon announcement about long range munitions coming for ukraine. Tokmat, Kersh bridge……going going and will be gone
October 14, 2022 at 12:02 am
Daniel. What arms production increases? Where are the new Russian supplies hiding? As soon as they get over the border to ukraine they are gone. Whether command posts artillery and radar units, or weapons supplies. all are seen by usa ukrainian inteligence, eavesdropping Awac’s or satellites, and systematically destroyed. Russia is fighting relatively blind.
October 14, 2022 at 1:24 am
What the author didn’t mention is that this is Russia’s ANNUAL winter offensive. Perhaps Russia will have as much success with this one as the last, when they took 20% of Ukraine (territory providing 95% of Ukrainian GDP) against fresh troops. After the offensive, Russia can retreat behind fortified lines and keep up the long range bombardment. Russia is intact, Ukraine is in ruins, a charity case costing the West tremendous amts of money. This is just the military assessment, but the economic analysis is dire for the West. The pure Western govts that are trying to cancel Russia are hurting bad. The add on effects of the conflict is badly overstretching already overstretched govt budgets at a time where surplus capital to loan them is drying up. On and on. Germany is literally deindustrializing! Expect many rightwing popularist govts rising who give voice to impoverished citizen frustration with their plight. I wonder how many annual winter offenses Russia will have before the Ukrainian patrons cry for mercy and end it?
October 14, 2022 at 3:12 am
The author’s analysis is flawed. Ukraine is fighting in Ukraine, not deep inside Russia. Ukraine’s winter is relatively mild. In the old days, equipment failure was a problem during winter time in Russia. However, all modern military equipment has been tested under severe winter conditions. Considering Russia’s poor maintenance, I doubt Russian tanks will start without any problem during winter time. As always, winter will slow down everything but I believe this winter will be a bloody one for Russia. The US finally started to deliver air defense systems and mass produce switchblade 600. Ukraine soldiers can trace artillery shells and hunt down Russian artillery and tanks without leaving their cars. The annual production capacity for switchblade 600 will reach 6000. Russia can say goodbye to artillery and tanks within a year. The Russian army needs a plan B now but I doubt they have one except Iranian flying lawn mowers.
October 14, 2022 at 3:34 am
“A Winter War In Ukraine Favors Russia And Will Be Bloody”… could have said his friend putin.
On the other hand, apart from the alleged “industrial power”, I have not seen any argument to support the premise.
Winter could even favor Ukraine as the terrain is impassable and conducive to special operations teams, in which Ukraine has an overwhelming advantage.
That, of course, if your boss makes it to winter, Mr. Davis…
October 14, 2022 at 4:07 am
The Red giant may possibly start the winter campaign with a big encirclement of AFU forces in Kharkiv oblast. AFU forces are very vulnerable there when winter comes, very vulnerable almost sandwiched between Belgorod oblast and the LPR.
It remains to be seen how it will turn out. By the way, according to the local booksellers in the Red giant, the population is ordering and buying more books about the Second World War than ever before.
A real boost for booksellers.
The Red giant’s people are becoming committed to their common cause.
October 14, 2022 at 5:35 am
They have no material left. The conscripts are not trained.Winter in Ukraine is cold and wet, this will give problems for badly dressed and fed unmotivated Russians. The only lesson to learn is how to surrender.
October 14, 2022 at 6:34 am
This seems so off. Blowing up apartment buildings and attacking power plants does not equate to destroying critical military infrastructure. And the one thing that Ukraine has succeeded at beyond expectations is destroying Russian military infrastructure – the “stockpiles” that the author claims the Russians are building. And finally, hard to see how untrained conscripts are going to succeed where Spetsnaz, elite airborne units and guards tank armies failed, particularly as the first line equipment gives way to third line poorly stored equipment. But hey, maybe the author’s right. We’ll see soon.
October 14, 2022 at 6:53 am
Characterizing Russia’s recent withdrawals as orderly doesn’t seem to account for the facts. If we can half believe what we read, some of Russia’s best units fled in chaos leaving behind copious supplies. Will the new, untested troops really be any better? This war has been very hard to predict, but I’ve read other articles by this author and his track record is well below average. If he’s lucky, he can hope for the broken clock analogy.
October 14, 2022 at 7:13 am
how can a winter war favour the side which is not capable of giving their soldiers socks, let alone anything else
October 14, 2022 at 9:07 am
I call Bullshit on this article. The performance of the Russian military has been shambolic and abysmally ineffective since day one. Now, when winter comes, the Bear will awaken? I think …not.
Likely Russian troops won’t have winter gloves, socks, jackets or boots to wear, let alone massive new quantities of weaponry.
In fairness, it’s likely winter will slow down Ukraine also. Both sides will be focused on staying warm more than anything else.
Roger J. Buffington
October 14, 2022 at 9:11 am
Bad analysis. Winter war requires that the soldiers be properly equipped and supplied. Logistics and training are the keys to cold-weather campaigning. The Russian side is an incompetent botch, with legendary bad logistics, troops lacking cold weather uniforms, and terrible discipline. They are facing a Ukrainian Army that is highly motivated, increasingly equipped with Western state-of-the-art weapons, and which just received 500,000 Canadian winter uniforms. I fail to see how this favors the Russian rabble.
October 14, 2022 at 9:49 am
Daniel Davis; “It is clear, however, that wars are not fought on paper, and if anything has been made clear from the outset, the Ukrainian troops have been far more effective and resilient than anyone predicted prior to February….No one can therefore predict with any accuracy how this next phase of war will unfold”
You went a long way from calling for an immediate Ukrainian surrender. Hopefully you wont be coming back with that horseshit again.
Neil Ross Hutchings
October 14, 2022 at 10:11 am
Still trying to decipher the meaning of the statement “we will continue to provide support for as long as it takes”. Were there any unbiased reporters present at the press conference to ask exactly what that statement means? One thing we can be sure of is that there are many months, if not years, of foggy messaging and reporting ahead. I just hope when this war is over that it will have been deemed to be worth all the death and destruction.
October 14, 2022 at 10:22 am
Russia will try to do what has worked in the past. It will throw thousands of troops, most untrained, and a lot of metal at the Ukrainians. But this force will not be fighting for Mother Russia. Even if many soldiers buy into the buffer theory that Putin used to justify the initial assault, these troops will know they’re the aggressors. They will also know that more troops will mean more storage depots for the Ukrainians to blow up with longer-range missiles. Even if Ukrainian forces go on the defensive, they will pummel Russian forces in their wake. They and their allies are already prepared for this scenario.
October 14, 2022 at 10:33 am
Caution: “Pagar” and “Yrral” are paid russian trolls.
It would be nice if the site owners would do something about it..
October 14, 2022 at 10:57 am
Talk about seeing things the way you want to (confirmation bias).
Too many people, especially the U. S. foreign policy blob toadies think they can conjure a scenario based on their desires, bias and prejudice.
(Claims to the contrary are in denial of human nature.)
No, realism is the coin of the realm.
Nobody, here, knows what will happen because, quite simply, it hasn’t happened, yet.
The blood lust is striking… I guess it’s easy when all you are is an armchair warrior.
I fee badly for the Ukrainian People, lots of good people… but I have no sympathy for Ukrainian leaders, they abuse their own people for their Stephen Bandera ideology… an ideology of hate that has led to untold misery, suffering and death.
And, who knows, maybe the existence of Ukraine, itself.
October 14, 2022 at 11:17 am
Jim, Yrral, Pagar, et.al
Jim especially… your pretense that Ukraine has no relevance to the US is yet another absurdity that you and others continue to peddle for no valid reason. In reality, There is quite a long list of reasons why Ukraine is actually important to the US, but let’s start here:
Yours is worse than a Trumpian statement about “America First” [to the detriment of all else], and completely ignores our alliance structure and what is important to them. After 9/11 when we invoked article 5, NATO, the EU, Australia, and others stepped up for us when it wasnt necessarily in their vital interests to do so. It is only right that we do this for them now. Consistent polling shows Ukraine has the support of %70 of people in the EU countries, even if it means they pay higher bills while Russia is defeated and they make the transition away from Russian oil&gas.
As well, Russia’s centuries long history of imperialist aggression against its neighbors is seen as an existential threat by Russia’s neighbors. Based on that history, and Putin’s insistence on continually invoking the history of imperialist land thieves like Peter and Catherine the not-so-greats… if you really think that Russia would stop at Ukraine if we didnt keep to this red line now, I have a gently used bridge in the Kerch Strait to sell you.
Just about Every Time there is a window of weakness shown to Putin is exactly when he launches yet another invasion. As I have stated repeatedly, in 2013 the US pulled the last tanks out of EU, and was full swing on the pivot to Asia…and a year later Putin invaded Ukraine. This time it was the Afghan debacle, and Putin smelling weakness believing the Us would not intervene on behalf of Ukraine. Putin has been trying to weaken and split NATO for a long time. If he was allowed to take Ukraine, even the southern belt all the way to connect with Russian troops in Transnistria…he would certainly have gone after the low hanging NATO fruit in the Baltics at some point. Much better to stop him now than to let him think he can test Article 5 later.
Furthermore, the combination of Russia and Ukraine is a major source of food for the world. The notion of allowing Russia to control the vast majority of that combination…even if a portion of that is to simply control the southern belt of Ukraine and deny them access to the Black Sea…is absurd. There was already almost a global food crisis. Rail lines are nowhere near the capacity of grain ships at sea. And we have already seen the political games Russia plays with turning on and off NatGas. Of course they would do the same with food. It is in fact a vital interest of the US to deny that to Russia.
Part of that is an own goal on us with the stupidity of regulations in places like my home state of California that have reduced food production in the central valley by %30 simply by mismanaging the water supply over decades. That still doesnt mean we should allow Russia a stronger position in the world food market. and I havent even mentioned the other natural resources Ukraine sits on.
Bottom line: the lot of you showing your various true colors as somewhere between overly pretentious about what you think you know [Jim], to blatant Putinista trolls [Pagar, Yrral, etc.]…all you succeed in doing is strengthening the resolve of people who actually understand what is at stake.
October 14, 2022 at 11:48 am
The longer the war continues, the greater the fundamentals favor Russia, and simultaneously the greater the odds of escalation should Russia fail conventionally. These armchair chicken hawks who have never served a day in their life, much less on a general staff, have absolutely no idea what they are talking about.
Also, Ukraine isn’t an ally of the United States, and now fortunately, a plurality and almost outright majority favor stopping arms and treasure shipments to that non-allied country. There is no legal basis to go to war over Ukraine with Russia, nor is it in our American interest to do so, contra Gary and the rest of the chickenhawk squawks.
October 14, 2022 at 12:33 pm
Per Jim and others: If you are reduced to name calling like a 5-year-old it means you’re in the middle of a temper tantrum. No one ever makes any sense when they are having a tantrum.
October 14, 2022 at 12:50 pm
The author of this piece has more military experience than I do but I do not understand his assertion that the Russians, by building up large stockpiles of weapons and munitions, will be in a strong position to launch a major offensive. It seems more likely that we will be seeing more videos of spectacular explosions when the Ukrainians unleash their HIMARS on these stockpiles.
October 14, 2022 at 1:06 pm
As usual your arrogance betrays you. You seem to be one branch of supposedly former military that is a poster child for why the US has made so many bad strategic decisions over the years.
Something akin to Newtons 3rd Law of Physics played out in geopolitics… you are the equal and opposite [yet equally bad] end of the spectrum of the mistakes made by the neocons. Except many of them eventually had the self awareness and humility to admit their mistakes. I see little possibility of that potential for humility in you…even under the high likelihood of Ukraine winning without Russia starting a nuclear war. You will still find some excuse to claim it wasnt a good idea to help Ukraine
As much as I disagree with Biden on basically everything else, I am also thankful that there are people with decision making positions who clearly understand this particular situation much better than people like you do.
Have a liberating day.
ROBERT H PILPEL
October 14, 2022 at 1:50 pm
“Horrific” is hyperbole, given the truly horrific depredations Ukraine has suffered at Russian hands over the last 100 years. Might I suggest that “embattled” is a more accurate adjective.
October 14, 2022 at 1:56 pm
I am amazed at how bad the Russian Army is. But if Putin’s draft is even somewhat successful, he will be able to throw hundreds of thousands of new cannon fodder at the front, while using some of his thousands of micro-nukes to destroy the Ukrainians all along the Kherson front. The Russians could still lose, of course, since nukes don’t take and hold territory – only soldiers do that. Ultimately, it all depends on how well Putin’s draft goes.
The other question that will decide the war is the attrition – which side runs out of necessary weapons and ammo first? Russia is clearly running out of a lot of stuff, but so are we.
October 14, 2022 at 2:11 pm
Ukraine is a friend, but not a formal treaty ally (that matters, both morally & legally).
Tho protest too much…
Ukraine is not a vital national security interest of the American People.
… euphemistic words don’t cut it.
Nor ramblings about foreign countries.
This war is the result of the Ukraine Policy and is entirely the U. S. foreign policy blob’s making.
They own it.
And will be held accountable for it.
Americans owe nothing to the ideological inheritors of Stephen Bandera… his hatred, his brutality, his indifference to human life — we see it coming out of Ukraine’s leadership on a regular basis.
To turn your eyes away from that is to admit moral blindness.
…long ramblings often signify a weak argument.
A concise statement almost always is better.
Some people put Ukraine above America and that is wrong & unpatriotic.
It’s toadying for an elite, shame on you.
October 14, 2022 at 2:30 pm
The war will be over by March.
Ukriane will be defeated and dismembered.
Another 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers will die.
The next thing you hear about will be cries of “a humanitarian crisis in Ukraine as Ukraine cannot feed, house or keep their civilians warm”. Millions will leave the ruins of Ukraine and make their way to Poland and Germany. Social disorder will spread to Europe.
October 14, 2022 at 2:31 pm
“Fighting retreat”?!?!?!? The only way the Russian rout was a “fighting retreat” was that the Russian troops were fighting each other to see which could get out of Dodge the quickest.
October 14, 2022 at 3:36 pm
Primary sources on Twitter contradict almost all of this article. Russian draftees get almost no training beyond individual firing of a few clips with their AK-47s. Tens of thousands of Ukrain’s troops are trained upt to NATO standards both internally and in NATO countries like Britain, Poland and Denmark. Russian draftees have already been sent to the front and captured.
The motivation of Russian draftees is suspect. Hundreds of thousands of Russian men left the country to escape the draft when Putin announced partial mobilization. The call up has been concentrated on ethnic minorities and the poorer regions of the Russian Federation. Russian draftees often have to buy their own uniforms, first aid kits, body armor, and other equipment. Army issue equipment is usually stolen and sold by corrupt supply officers. It’s doubtful Russia will be able to furnish winter uniforms to their mobilized soldiers.
Ukraine has captured more equipment than they have lost in this latest offensive. Even with all the equipment provided by other countries, Russia is still the biggest supplier of tanks, AFVs and artillery pieces to Ukraine. Ukraine has also captured large amounts of ammunition.
Russian logistics in this war have been really bad since Ukraine deployed HIMARS. Adding precision guided 155mm artillery shells like Excaliber to HIMARS, Ukraine has been able to destroy many Russian supply dumps and headquarters.
Russian Army supply is dependent on railroads, with a relatively small number of trucks to move supplies from the rail heads to the front. With the large scale destruction of Russian trucks, many civilian vehicles are now showing up in the Russian supply chain. Russian signals intercepts include lots of complaints about a lack of ammunition and artillery support.
The explosion and fire that caused partial destruction of the Kerch Bridge between Russia and the Crimea on October 8, 2022, has prevented all rail traffic and most road traffic since then. Only passenger cars have crossed the bridge. This reduces to a trickle the supplies and reinforcements that can get to the forces in Kherson Oblast and Crimea, particularly fuel. It’s likely that repairs will take months, because the original buiding project was a custom job with no standard parts.
In short, Ukraine has a lot of advantages not mentioned in this article.
October 14, 2022 at 3:42 pm
Good old Daniel Davis is back, pretending his hardest, just like Baghdad Bob. Hilarious. Wrong about everything, all the time.
October 14, 2022 at 3:46 pm
Just from looking at the title i knew who the author was. Hey Daniel, I’m a little short for cash this month. Does Vlad pay by the word or is it a set fee per article?
October 14, 2022 at 3:57 pm
Stopping Russia’s naked aggression against the Ukraine is a vital US and NATO strategic interest.
Ukraine must be given long range offensive weapons. It must carry strategic attack, mainly via air, into Russia, to destroy key roads, bridges, power plants, and military force/materiel concentrations. To continue to fight this war on Ukraine ground is stupid. But, then, rope-a-dope worked for Muhammed Ali.
October 14, 2022 at 4:21 pm
Enfield wrote , “The Red giant’s people are becoming committed to their common cause.”
Interesting wording. A red giant is a star that is near the end of it’s life. An apt comparison for Russia.
October 14, 2022 at 4:34 pm
Trading land for time for the Russians is not the first time the Russians have done. Consider, 1812, when Napoleon entered Russia with with an army much larger then the Russian army, advanced all the way to Moscow, took and burned Moscow, but was stopped at Borodino, and was subsequently chased out of Russia by the Russian Army. A second historical example; the Nazi’s suffered their first defeat of WW2 a few kilometers outside of Moscow, when the USSR brought in forces from the eastern part of the country. For a country the size of Russia, withdrawing trading space for time is a viable tactic whereas for a small country such as Israel it is not.
Russia wanted to start the operation in Ukraine much earlier then Feb 2022, but at the request of China delayed the start of the operation until after the winter Olympics in China. The delayed start was not in Russia’s advantage but better for Ukraine’s, since fall and spring in that part of the world does not favor either tracked or wheeled off road travel. Right now, weather, is inhibiting major operations for both combatants. Moreso, the Russian surge of 300k is expected to conclude with transition of rain into snow, with freezing weather providing the firming of the ground, and less concealment for defenders and most trees not having leaf cover.
To make a baseball analogy, this war is like in the first or second inning of a baseball game that may go into overtime, and a lot can still happen.
Dr. M. L. Shanks
October 14, 2022 at 5:01 pm
“Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics”
Lt. Col.Davis appears to be one of those officers who believe that the supplies will magically appear when the forces need them… Sort of like the Russians on the road to Kyiv in February. And we all know how that turned out.
Russia has had endless problems with logistics in this war, from having to rely on rail transport because their military lacks the modern integral road & air units to extend supply range to promised war stocks missing due to corruption and decades of inadequate storage and maintenance. Books will be written on Russia’s logistical failures in this conflict. But the biggest looming logistical catastrophe for the Russians is the one I see least addressed by analysts and the media. Russia’s rail transport system is on the verge of collapse due to sanctions.
Why? Because the Russian railroad industry over the last two decades converted their rolling stock to use more efficient, modern tapered roller bearing cassettes. And all the bearings were manufactured by Western companies in their home countries and then assembled onto the freight wagons by Russian joint ventures. All of those Western companies (Timken, Amsted, SKF, etc.) ceased selling bearings to Russia, pulling out of the joint ventures. Railroad wagon production in Russia ceased in April due to lack of bearings. But it is not just new cars that need these parts. A set of bearings only last for 125,000 – 160,000 km before they need replacement. By August, there were over 10,000 Russian railway wagons out-of-service due to needing replacement bearings. This number will grow month-by-month, with estimates suggesting that over 200,000 railway wagons being out of service by March….or about 40% of Russia’s total stock.
And to this point, Russia has not found a single foreign replacement for their Western railroad bearing suppliers. India and China both use joint venture production similar Russia, with the actual bearings being manufactured by Western companies in the USA, Sweden, Germany, or Japan….all of which are sanctioning Russia. While Russia might try to reactivate their old Soviet bearing industry (or rely on Chinese manufacturers using old Soviet equipment) these produce sleeve (aka friction) bearings, which have lower weight capacity and speed ratings than their modern Western counterparts.
Here’s an industry article on the problem…
October 14, 2022 at 5:27 pm
The war & aggression started in 2014 when the U. S. promoted & participated in a coup & overthrow of the duly elected government.
As Victoria Nuland stated, the U. S. put five billion dollars into the run up to the coup and then was caught on audio discussing who to put into power (she selected her favorite — the famous “f” the EU tape).
After the Eastern regions of Ukraine objected to the coup and many were murdered for opposing the coup.
These same Eastern regions saw the writing on the wall (of Banderite treatment for those who opposed the coup)
So, they declared independence from Ukraine.
It is this Banderite Mentality that the blob has used to get at Russia (Using Ukraine… in the worst way)
An ideology of hatred (in this case Russia… who knows who is next… Poland, Hungary, Belarus… Americans because Banderites think we betrayed them.
Where does this stop… when you let hate out of the bottle?
Shame on you for using somebody else’s hatred to get at your perceived enemies.
October 14, 2022 at 5:56 pm
1945 needs to drop this guy. It shows how an Army LTC may not be knowledgeable outside his field, in this case, unskilled in intelligence analysis. Not to say he might be an expert in his field…. which sounds like Operations, not intel.
The title “A Winter War in Ukraine Favors Russia and Will Be Bloody” explains nothing about *how* a Winter War would favor Russia, and *why* it would be bloody, and for whom.
Having a little bit of successful experience (7 years as FO, 22 years Army intel analyst), I respond:
Modern Armor Does Poorly Off Road, unless very cold or hard terrain. The terrain is cultivated mud for much of the contested areas so far, limiting wide scale armor maneuver to select areas. The ground is unfavorably soft. Armor drives on a road to a good solid location, sets up and missions, then leaves on a road. Key point to moving the armor: roads. Reason why Russian soldiers abandon many of their vehicles is that they can run and hide by foot, but they cannot run and hide mounted and having to use…. roads.
Ukraine averaged about 39F/4C – even the coldest snaps in the last five years were very short, with temps rarely sustaining lower than freezing more than few days. In short, no sustainable frost line, and most heavy vehicle travel limited to roads (which was seen in Russia’s initial invasion). This ain’t Finland, or even 1944 (thanks global warming). Opportunity *might* be in January for about three weeks – but at this rate Ukraine will be at the Russian border by then.
Also, land be mostly flat and clear farmland. Question: Do you know what they call Armor in flat and clear terrain? Answer: Dead.
Next, Ukraine isn’t simply on the offense but also pushing layered defense behind their offense. Should the vaunted and feared Russian Army finally snap close their devious plan and well laid trap against the unsuspecting Ukrainian Army… Bwahhh… I give up. The derision is too much. But even if – Russia won’t have to go far to hit the hypothetical wall, cement reinforced and well defended, supported by HIMARS. Russia doesn’t have the men, material, leadership and motivation. Mostly the motivation, proven in the last month. And those were the full timer, professional troops.
So in about 10 min addressing weather and terrain I have reasonably put forth that a Winter War will not favor Russia. Reading between my commentary, I agree that it will be bloody – for the Russians. And based on current events, it looks like it will be bloody for them if they stand in place or run like hell. And seeing the effectiveness of Russian logistics v. Ukraine ranged attack, I’ma guessin’ it’ll be cold and hungry as well as bloody for untrained, inexperienced Russian Reservists.
Davis seems to not have a good grasp on his last few topics. Maybe 1945 should look into getting someone else. At best, this opinion piece looks like he put it together in an hour, will all fluff and no meat. To put this out under a 1945 header is… embarrassing.
Does he get paid for this?
October 14, 2022 at 6:08 pm
More evidence in that you just make things up out of thin air to try and undermine support for Ukraine.
The latest wave of Reuters/Ipsos polling poll conducted Oct. 4-5 on Russia’s naked aggression in Ukraine finds:
66% of respondents said Washington specifically should continue providing weapons to Ukraine, up from 51% in a similar poll in August.
73% of Americans say the United States should continue to support Ukraine despite Russia threatening to use nuclear weapons.
Both Democrats and Republicans agreed, although there was more support among Biden’s fellow Democrats – 81% – than Republicans – at 66%.
In our hyper partisan climate right now, you would be almost impossible to find any other subject that has more bipartisan support than Ukraine.
In case you thought that was some fluke, Similar numbers come in from YouGov-Cambridge Polling between 24 August and 22 September found that of 13 western countries – France, Germany, Sweden, Denmark, Spain, Italy, Greece, Hungary, Poland, the UK, US, Australia and Canada – a “core group” of 10 backed maintaining economic sanctions on Russia. Greece, Hungary and Italy were outliers.
Among the remaining 10 countries, support for sanctions ranged from a low of 57% or 58% in France and Germany, through 60%, 62% and 65% in Canada, the US and Poland, to highs of more than 70% in the UK, Sweden and Denmark.
Have a liberating day.
October 14, 2022 at 8:57 pm
mawendt: “Davis seems to not have a good grasp on his last few topics. Maybe 1945 should look into getting someone else. At best, this opinion piece looks like he put it together in an hour, will all fluff and no meat.”
He is not an objective analyst, he is a propagandist who’s been promoting the “kneel before Putin or else” mantra since February. In some of his earlier pieces that almost gave me an aneurysm, he was pretty open about Ukrainians having to cave in before Putin beats the living daylights out of ’em.
I suspect his ramblings are published to ensure a somewhat objective treatment of the war, which goes to show how difficult it is to find arguments in support of the other side if they have to rely on this joker.
October 14, 2022 at 9:55 pm
As usual, another ridiculous article by what’s his face. Russian MOD strategy may appear to be bend-but-don’t-break, but the Russian soldier’s tactic is a mix of run like hell, surrender at first opportunity, and drop off their tanks and armor as if they were delivering to a Goodwill Store.
October 14, 2022 at 10:36 pm
When I need to take my morning glory, I wipe with the writings of Daniel Davis.
Seriously though, when has Mr. Davis ever been correct regarding the Russia-Ukraine war? I think people must come here to humor themselves.
October 14, 2022 at 11:35 pm
Actually, Gary, the American people grow tired of you arm chair chickenhawks’ efforts to get us into nuclear Armageddon. Your mendaciousness is only matched by your hubris. You are entirely entitled to your unfortunately completely uninformed, ignorant, and American national security damaging, personal animus driven, opinion.
The facts however disagree with you. According to a poll a week ago conducted by the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and Data for Progress, 57% of likely voters strongly or somewhat support the US pursuing diplomatic negotiations as soon as possible to end the war in Ukraine, even if it requires Ukraine making compromises with Russia. Just 32% of respondents were strongly or somewhat opposed to this.
And nearly half of the respondents (47%) said they only support the continuation of US military aid to Ukraine if the US is involved in ongoing diplomacy to end the war, while 41% said they support the continuation of US military aid to Ukraine whether the US is involved in ongoing diplomacy or not.
The Biden administration and Congress need to do more diplomatically to help end the war, according to 49% of likely voters, while 37% said they have done enough in this regard, the poll showed.
The poll found close to half of likely US voters (48%) somewhat or strongly oppose the US providing aid to Ukraine at current levels if long-term global economic hardship, including in the US, occurs. Meanwhile, the poll showed that only four-in-10 Americans somewhat or strongly support the US providing aid to Ukraine at current levels if this occurs.
The poll also found 58% of Americans somewhat somewhat or strongly oppose the US providing aid to Ukraine at current levels if there are higher gas prices and a higher cost of goods in the US, while just 33% somewhat or strongly support continuing aid if this occurs.
As usual, you are completely wrong in your support for policies which will assist American adversaries the world over, and in your cheerleading for a regime change nuclear war over a non-ally and non-existential American interest.
October 14, 2022 at 11:44 pm
Stopping Russia’s invasion in Ukraine is a not a vital US and NATO strategic interest.
The one way to ensure that Ukraine is raised to the ground, and the one way to increase the likelihood of nuclear escalation would be to “give” (at U.S. taxpayer expense I’d add) Ukraine long range offensive weapons and the carte blanche to carry strategic attack, mainly via air, into Russia, to destroy key roads, bridges, power plants, and military force/materiel concentrations. To green light our proxy state Ukraine taking this war on Ukraine ground is more than stupid, it’s suicidal. Russia is not an Iraq or a Libya for the U.S. to engage in regime change in or launch existential threats against.
If China launched Mexico into the continental United States conventionally, while rendering them assistance, guidance, arming, and intelligence… what do you suppose our response might be? If our very existence was threatened?
Are you a ten year old child writing out of bile and emotion? If not, you should probably reconsider how you are approaching this. Try transposing yourself into a Russian’s perspective of the issue… as this is the best available path for you to deduce reactions to your proposed policy paths.
October 15, 2022 at 9:41 am
All this time ive wondered whats up with this dude until now. Turns out he’s one of those trumpists. That explains a lot about.. Well… Everything
October 15, 2022 at 10:58 am
LoL, I actually use multiple reputable sources for polling. Not only have I never heard of ‘filesforprogress.org’ trying to go to that web address yields an error message. Repeatedly.
So I did a bit of digging and found what may be the likely source for your outlier poll. The Quincy Institute is the only one to have raised the possibility that the American public is growing weary of supporting the war in Ukraine with a poll conducted on their behalf by the left-leaning “Data For Progress”.
Now let’s consider the source. Quincy is a leftist think tank with a stable of “experts” who are clearly and firmly in the Russia appeasement camp – just like you.
Unlike the Quincy poll, the YouGov poll I cited asked a consistent set of neutral questions over time on Ukraine and Russia.
As well, I provided multiple sources from well known polling institutions that are well past the margin of error against you. Making your one poll an outlier, and revealing just how desperate you are to cling to anything out there on the fringes in order to pretend you are correct, when you are not.
There’s quite a bit more where that came from as well:
More from YouGov: In those same 10 countries, significant numbers – 62% in Poland, 57% in Sweden, 50% in the UK, 40-50% in France, Germany, Spain and the US – also felt existing sanctions were “not harsh enough” and should be strengthened.
Many western voters were willing to pay a price for this, with about half or more – 66% in Denmark, 63% in the UK – favouring sanctions even if their living costs increased slightly (support dipped if a “large increase” was implied, but by no more than about 10 points).
Only 13% of respondents in France, for example, backed recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea if Moscow gave up none of its new Ukrainian territory – but the percentage was not very different (17%) if it surrendered all of it. In Germany, the corresponding figures were 20% for “all” and 17% for “none”; in Sweden 13% and 10%, in Spain 18% and 16%; Poland 12% and 11%, Britain 10% and 6% and the US 15% and 13%.
On the key question of whether Russia was more to blame than the west, responses followed broadly the same pattern, with strong majorities in the core western alliance (up to 78% in Sweden, Denmark and the UK) blaming Russia, and correspondingly very low numbers (4% in Poland, 6% in Spain, 7% in France) blaming the west.
Similar results coming in from Gallup, Axios, and basically every other well known polling institution.
Gallup Sept 15,
66% Support Ukraine in reclaiming territory, even if prolonged conflict
%74 of Americans say US either doing the right amount or not doing enough to help Ukraine
Back to your Quincy poll, of course they asked loaded questions trying to tie inflation to the war. While it may have exacerbated inflation, massive federal stimulus over a span of years as well as extremely stupid policy here at home on energy, pipelines, Oil and Gas lease complications on federal land, and even stupid water mismanagement are all contributing factors to inflation…and are frankly much much much bigger culprits on inflation than Ukraine.
Americans are largely smart enough to see through your bogus attempts to blame inflation entirely on Ukraine considering inflation was already having an impact before the war in Ukraine started.
In my home state of California our governor could suspend the gas tax and the requirement to blend gas in our state for 2 years and the price of a gallon would drop by $2 per gallon instantly. That would have a ripple effect bringing down the cost of shipping all other goods. There is no reason other than stupid policy that California has close to double the price of gas as other places. I drove home from Vegas for CES and Edge2022 [formerly known as CES Government] January 8th, 5 weeks before the war…and just across the border of CA to NV the cost of gas was $1.50/gal less. Those stations were less than 5 miles apart.
On the Federal level, if Biden told the Fracking industry that there would be a price floor of $60 per barrel of oil for something like 3-4 years, and something similar on NatGas, that would provide a measure of certainty for an industry that has seen too many boom bust cycles to want to invest big right now. A lot of them are taking profits to pay back investors. A price floor would allow medium term investment in new drilling here at home to bring down the price of oil without relying on OPEC. And he can add in a whole bunch of aid to EVs, Solar, Wind and other clean energy so he can sell it to the left flank of his party. As a pragmatic centrist who hates the oil industry, I’m %100 in favor of that all of the above approach also.
As well, almost all the polling shows that Americans still don’t care about foreign affairs. In your Quincy poll, the Ukraine war ranked last among issues.
YouGov has just 6 percent saying “national security” is their most important issue [“foreign policy” clocks in at zero]. And that sentiment is justified. The war has had much less impact on the United States than the rest of the world. Unlike in Europe, there is little prospect of energy shortages here or any direct physical threat from Russia because no one is buying the notion that Putin will start a nuclear war over Ukraine, and people understand we have the energy resources here at home that need to be handled by better policy on energy… they are not at all tied to foreign policy.
Bottom line: Your attempts to pretend that your one poll of cherry picked / slanted questions are in anyway a full representation of reality have failed spectacularly. As well, many of the other questions asked show that most Americans and other westerners are not buying any of the other arguments you are making either.
clarence wilhelm spangle
October 15, 2022 at 11:01 am
Nobody is going to fight a war for Biden, he is dumber than Bush… the oligarchs are just beginning to realize nobody is willing defend them anymore and it is becoming very obvious with Ukraine…
clarence wilhelm spangle
October 15, 2022 at 11:10 am
NATO is an organization of war criminals… Alexander Dugin’s daughter was murdered in a NATO sponsored terrorist attack.
The best thing about Russia getting Crimea back… Catherine the Great took it from the Turks…
What happened right after Russia retook Crimea? The Russian FSB searched all the Turks living there… Why? Because NATO sponsors Islamist terrorism when it suits them to.
October 15, 2022 at 11:14 am
With Davis predicting a russian victory it cant be more than a few days before Kherson and Kreminna falls.
Even if russian military was down to just Putin himself swinging a dirty toothbrush this joker would still be predicting victory for him
The fact alone that he seems confident that Putin Will pull off a winter offensive i Ukraine with under-equipped recruits is all you need to know about this Moron
October 15, 2022 at 11:26 am
Neo-cons always worried about the wrong border . . .
October 15, 2022 at 11:59 am
The best option is a Peace Conference.
That’s what I wrote at the top of my first comment on this thread.
What would it take to get a Peace Conference to happen?
(That didn’t generate any response because, sadly, Ukraine supporters are confident the U. S. would never broker a Peace Conference because they are actually the chief proxy sponsor of Ukraine’s military effort… I acknowledge their confidence seems well placed at this time.)
Only if Kiev fears for its existence and/or the U. S. government fears Ukrainian military collapse would the U. S. government use its leverage to bring on a Peace Conference — or the wild card… U. S. political support collapses… which could happen after the mid-terms.
So, where does this leave the situation?
Lt. Col. Davis offers his informed opinion… perhaps, menu of outcomes is a better description.
Why only a menu? Because the Ukraine military has done much better than many military experts predicted (including Lt Col. Davis).
Can Russia change the dynamic in a decisive way?
Where is the “Mighty Russian Army?”… obviously, many, here, on this website, both authors & commenters, alike, don’t think it exists.
But time will tell one way or another.
October 15, 2022 at 12:03 pm
Perhaps the most ignorant, and awkwardly racist anti-Jew cooment anyone has made here in awhile.
Perhaps you should study up on the Refuseniks, and the way that the USSR thoroughly oppressed their Jewish population…which led to over 1 Million Jews leaving the USSR at the first chance they were allowed to. The Commies were basically holding them hostage.
Not to mention the centuries long Russian tradition of oppressing Jews since before Catherine the not-so-great imposed The Pale of Settlement on 4.5 Million Jews, and the subsequent 150 years of pogroms meted out against Jews which blatantly and repeatedly raped and pillaged Jewish communities in the Russian empire. Just like they are doing in Ukraine right now.
I’m still not sure who is at the wheel of 1945’s comment ‘moderation’… but in today’s world it seems on many sides that the only minority that is acceptable to target with that type of fraudulent bigotry is Jews.
October 16, 2022 at 2:31 pm
“Ukrainian troops have been far more effective and resilient than anyone predicted prior to February” Sure they were effective! NATO had 8 years and a coup to make them the strongest army in Europe. No army has fought an army like Ukraine’s since ww2. But just as in vietnam, middle east and afghanistan the US will peter out. Ukraine lost the war during the summer/fall. There is no Ukraine army left. Russia destroyed everything Ukraine had brought to bare. What is in Ukraine now is only NATO. NATO weapons, NATO trained men and mercs. and NATO money! Ukraine died long ago. Now all that remains is to defeat NATO.
October 16, 2022 at 3:22 pm
“ I’m sure the USSR was sure they’d overwhelm Finland during the Winter War in 1939 also.”
For all those who love the Finland-USSR analogy, you should remember that despite the Soviet miscalculations and the tenacity of the Finns, Finland lost that war and lost territory as well. Many Finns died (and many Russians, too)!
In any case, it’s a terrible model to use, because the results were not as usually suggested.
October 16, 2022 at 8:39 pm
No. For two reasons. If Russia isn’t doing well now with at least a modicum of experienced fighters they will not fare any better in the winter with inexperienced conscripts. Secondly. Look at the winter war between Russia and Finland. Finland had highly motivated fighters even if they didn’t have the best equipment. Russia used haphazard tactics and had unmotivated soldiers. Ukraine has motivated troops and modern equipment. Russia has unmotivated troops and cold war era equipment. Russia is not prepared to fight a winter war in Ukraine.
October 16, 2022 at 9:21 pm
I continue to be amazed at the success of Western propaganda in the face of how wrong it has been about everything since the Iraq war run-up. Why would anyone believe a word of it?
But, people trip over each other to be the most fervent believers of obvious lies and fact-less spewage. It’s disgusting.
Does anyone remember just a few years ago when the US government failed to produce a *website* with a billion dollar budget?
This winter, Ukraine will be shattered. Europe will freeze and starve, and as soon as China makes a significant move, the US will drop Ukraine like the world’s hottest potato.
It hardly matters to the US political elite, though.. the real project is the transfer of wealth from US taxes into their war profiteering investments.
October 17, 2022 at 2:29 am
“What is in Ukraine now is only NATO. NATO weapons, NATO trained men and mercs. and NATO money! Ukraine died long ago. Now all that remains is to defeat NATO.”
If NATO really turns up, the war would be over within weeks. Right now the whole NATO talk is helping Russians cope with the incompetence and corruption of their system. Of course the heroic Russian people are struggling against a gigantic power and not just a dedicated smaller neighbour.
Neil Ross Hutchings
October 20, 2022 at 10:51 am
Love him or hate him, as I’ve said before Davis gets people talking, which is far better than the alternatives. 75 comments must be some kind of record for this site.
October 21, 2022 at 12:02 pm
LOL! I have to wonder who here is a click-paid troll, or an AI generated Bot. Of course, some may be real people, the same ones who wanted to fire and isolate others who refused their vaccinations or wear those silly masks. Those people were and still are fascists to the core.
So, a bit more than a week into the revenge of the suicide drones, 1/3rd of the Ukrainian electric, heat, and water infrastructure is in ruins. It’s easy to say that within another month, there won’t be a drop of water or one light bulb turned on in that rathole of the most corrupt country in Europe.
Then you have Germany the other day say they were down to 2 days of ammunition if a war breaks out, so I suppose the endless supply of NATO arms is approaching a close. And it’s about to turn real cold, of course, and the Russians have been warehousing arms and ammunition for the last hundred years. Anyone who says they’re about to run out is a liar.
The sad thing about the Ukrainians is that many Roman Catholics and Oethodox Christians are dying for a government run by people who aren’t even of their religion. Something like 69% of that government, from the very top on down, is controlled by a group is only 1.6% of the population. If you don’t like those facts, then too bad, it is what it is.