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Ukraine Disaster: Russia Is Losing Its Hold on the Black Sea

Russian Navy Black Sea
Image: Creative Commons.

Over the weekend Ukrainian forces appear to have launched a reasonably successful attack on Russian naval forces at Sevastopol. How successful remains unclear, but reportedly a frigate and a minesweeper took some damage. (The frigate, Admiral Makarov, became the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet upon the sinking of the cruiser Moskva). 

Ukraine

Russian T-90 tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

The attacks were undertaken by unmanned surface vehicles, or USVs, and unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs. Video taken during the attack has been yet another propaganda boon for Kyiv. Such successes are critical to maintaining support for the war at home and across the international coalition that currently backs Ukraine. 

The Importance of Sevastopol

The attack appears to have had only limited military effects, but it is important in strategic terms, because Russia can no longer count on the security of its anchorage at Sevastopol. The growing reach of Ukrainian weapons puts the viability of the base in great question. That is a problem for Russia, because the maintenance of a fleet anchorage at Sevastopol is crucial to Moscow’s aims in this conflict. Without Sevastopol, Russia would struggle to maintain a significant naval force in the Black Sea, as other available ports lack the natural and man-made facilities necessary to keep the fleet at readiness. 

Russia lost its major shipyards in the region when Ukraine gained independence in 1991, and as a consequence of Moscow’s estrangement from Kyiv since 2014. Indeed, concern that Kyiv might abrogate or at least fail to renew the Russian lease over Sevastopol helped tip the balance of Russian decision-making towards the seizure of Crimea in 2014. The neutralization of Sevastopol would affect Russia’s ability to project power into the Mediterranean and beyond. 

Heralding a New Age

This is not the first time Ukraine has attacked Russian ships at rest. In March, Ukrainian ballistic missiles sank the landing ship Saratov at the port of Berdiansk, damaging two other landing ships in the process. Moreover, Ukraine’s access to Western anti-ship missiles has already made the Black Sea inhospitable for Russian ships. Russia can no longer contemplate an amphibious assault against Ukraine’s coastline, and it cannot plausibly threaten Ukrainian grain shipments with surface warships. For the most part, Russian ships have been relegated to acting as long-range shore artillery

We should note the attack was not a complete success. Russian defenses appear to have destroyed some of the drones before they could reach their targets. Nevertheless, the attack should alarm naval authorities around the world, much in the same way that the British attack on Taranto in November 1940 should have provided a warning about the lethal strike capability of carrier aviation. Ukraine relied on what seem to be relatively inexpensive drones, certainly in terms of manpower and probably in terms of equipment. The success of such an attack depends on the delivery system (how far out did the Ukrainians launch the USVs), the ability of the drones to maintain contact with their controllers, and the extent of damage inflicted by the warheads. All of these represent pressure points in the kill chain that a defender could take advantage of in the future. We don’t yet know many of the details, and we may not know them until well after the end of the war. 

Russia’s Hold on the Black Sea Slips 

This attack was certainly no Pearl Harbor, and it wasn’t even Taranto – where the British sank three Italian battleships – but it does offer some lessons for both attackers and defenders. In the future, attackers will use long-range motherships – most likely submarines but possibly also merchant vessels – to release UAVs, USVs, and unmanned undersea vehicles as close to the target as possible. Penetrating the physical, kinetic, and electronic defenses of critical port facilities is possible, but it is not easy, especially against a capable opponent who expects the attack. 

With respect to the future of this conflict, the attack merely highlights how poorly the war at sea has gone for Russia, which began the conflict with huge advantages. Although Moscow announced that it would leave the grain transport deal it struck with Ukraine earlier in the war, it is not obvious that Russia can effectively interdict such shipments without resorting to submarine or long-range cruise missile attacks. Either of those would prove immensely damaging on the international stage, especially when they hit grain shipments destined for developing countries. In the longer term, Russia’s centuries-long grip on the Black Sea may well be slipping away, with potentially huge implications for Russia’s role on the international stage. 

Dr. Robert Farley has taught security and diplomacy courses at the Patterson School since 2005. He received his BS from the University of Oregon in 1997, and his Ph. D. from the University of Washington in 2004. Dr. Farley is the author of Grounded: The Case for Abolishing the United States Air Force (University Press of Kentucky, 2014), the Battleship Book (Wildside, 2016), and Patents for Power: Intellectual Property Law and the Diffusion of Military Technology (University of Chicago, 2020). He has contributed extensively to a number of journals and magazines, including the National Interest, the Diplomat: APAC, World Politics Review, and the American Prospect. Dr. Farley is also a founder and senior editor of Lawyers, Guns and Money. 

Written By

Dr. Robert Farley has taught security and diplomacy courses at the Patterson School since 2005. He received his BS from the University of Oregon in 1997, and his Ph.D. from the University of Washington in 2004. Dr. Farley is the author of Grounded: The Case for Abolishing the United States Air Force (University Press of Kentucky, 2014), the Battleship Book (Wildside, 2016), and Patents for Power: Intellectual Property Law and the Diffusion of Military Technology (University of Chicago, 2020). He has contributed extensively to a number of journals and magazines, including the National Interest, the Diplomat: APAC, World Politics Review, and the American Prospect. Dr. Farley is also a founder and senior editor of Lawyers, Guns and Money.

15 Comments

15 Comments

  1. Gary Jacobs

    November 1, 2022 at 6:18 pm

    This author says, “as a consequence of Moscow’s estrangement from Kyiv since 2014″…

    And by “estrangement” of course you mean Russia’s attempted coup in 2014 by leveraging then President of Ukraine Yanukovych to throw away 3 years of negotiating a trade deal with the EU and instead sign a bad one with Russia. As if the shabby Russian economy has anything to offer that comes even close to the several Trillion dollar economy of the EU has. Not to mention freedom from Russian imperialism, invasions, famines, and the general tyranny with which Russia has treated Ukraine for centuries which has resulted in millions of dead Ukrainians. I would say that’s grounds for “estrangement”.

    The author notes further, “it is not obvious that Russia can effectively interdict such shipments without resorting to submarine or long-range cruise missile attacks”. How do you leave out the part about Turkey escorting grain ships through the Black Sea? They called Putin’s bluff, and he did nothing. If I read the report correctly, two convoys of about 14 ships each have already been escorted by the Turkish Navy. Putin cannot even handle Ukraine’s military as of now. Taking on Turkey as well would be a tall order for Russia.

  2. 403Forbidden

    November 1, 2022 at 6:27 pm

    The ‘success’ is way overrated. Still, the attack or raid most assuredly was supported by foreign intelligence work. That is, NATO agents were involved.

    Looks likw PERFECT RECIPE for igniting ww3 in europe despite lack of big or major success.

  3. jon

    November 1, 2022 at 7:24 pm

    Where to start? What evidence is there that Ukraine would not have renewed Russia’s lease on the Sevastapol base? Maybe there would have been negotiations, but it was specifically included in the Budapest Memorandum. Everyone recognized that the base was the most essential element of Russia’s Black Sea and Mediterranean posture. There was almost no possibility that Ukraine would refuse a lease extension. Unless Russia was taking lessons from China.

    Russia was served notice about two months ago that facilities in Crimea were at risk, after the air base attack, and then the drone attack on the HQ on Armed Forces Day. And more recently, of corse was the attack on the Kerch Bridge. All Russian facilities in Crimea are at risk.

    Russia apparently sets great stock in being a major naval power, though they show little ability to manifest that. Nor does a substantial naval presence seem to loom large in their politics or military action, aside perhaps from an Arctic Sea presence. Access to the Mediterranean, and having a ‘Warm Water’ port looms large in those discussions.

    This war of choice has placed Russia’s central naval doctrine at risk. Relocating its naval base into the Rostov region in the Sea of Azov, will not produce a more favorable position.

  4. Jacksonian Libertarian

    November 1, 2022 at 7:28 pm

    The Russian invasion of Ukraine may go down as one of the biggest self-inflicted military blunders in history.

    The Chinese sure are being patient in letting Russia exhaust itself, before taking Siberia and all of Eastern Russia from them.

    Xi stands no chance of taking Taiwan, but taking Siberian oil fields and resources from an exhausted Russia is doable. The political fallout from the West would be limited, and the pipelines are already built, haha. Saddam Hussein would already be preparing the Political Maskirovka.

  5. Dr. Scooter Van Neuter

    November 1, 2022 at 7:47 pm

    Sinking Admiral Makarov would have been glorious, but just damaging it sends a powerful message. I pray there are more attacks like this.

  6. Roger J. Buffington

    November 1, 2022 at 10:35 pm

    Although Russia is a reckless and warlike power, it is also incompetent militarily. Russia’s power and competence fall far short of its military self-image and aspirations. But for its nuclear weapons Russia would not even approach Great Power status, let alone the status of a superpower. We can see this by the fact that Russia cannot properly supply its military even for a border war. Russia’s army is dependent upon trains, much as the Union Army was during the American Civil War. In a very real sense, the Russian Army is 150 years out of date.

  7. monkfelonius

    November 1, 2022 at 10:51 pm

    What in the heck is wrong with you? At this hour NO ONE knows what damage was done, if any. Prudence would dictate silence until otherwise. We all want a win but pardon me, this is just poor soup clickbait. This is not helpful to them or to you.

  8. pagar

    November 2, 2022 at 2:45 am

    US DoD operatives are believed to have been involved in black sea Ukrainian operations. This is just setting up a volatile tinderbox for all-out war.

    Also, on Monday or just over 24 hours ago, hundreds of US combat jets started a war drill called ‘Vigilant Storm’ in south Korea, prompting north to fire a flurry of missiles into south Korean waters.

    US clearly never tires of wanting to dish out all-out war, doesn’t matter whether in Europe, middle east or Asia.

    It is war, that US wants. Sow the wind and reap the whirlwind !

    • Ric

      November 2, 2022 at 6:46 pm

      Fascinating how in your delusional mind, it’s the US that wants war, and not North Korea, which continuously makes threats against South Korea and Japan, or Russia, which, you know, ACTUALLY started a war by invading another country.

  9. Friend

    November 2, 2022 at 5:38 am

    Well, they could also sail those grain ships along the western and then southwestern coast of the black sea, where they would either be covered by coastal batteries or sail within the territorial waters of NATO members, if it weren’t for the U.S. trying so hard to dishonor the treaty and to not fight.
    Now that the NBA season has started the soldiers are more needed in the barracks to watch ads for hamburgers and home insurance. And after that, well who fricken fights over resources in the summer.

  10. Friend

    November 2, 2022 at 8:32 am

    What’s more, not only are you not helping Ukraine, you’re sabotaging Finland and Sweden bids, because, you know, big border, bad blood, high risk of conflict which your doughnut army wants no part of.
    Neither do you really have to pay Ukraine. Instead just make donations to Ukraine tax deductible. Why should anybody in the Democratic Party have to pay 800 billion for an army whose only purpose is to chill their balls, and then have to pay again for an army that actually fights.

  11. Jim

    November 2, 2022 at 9:06 am

    The buried lead of the article.

    [regarding the Sevastopol attack]

    “Such successes are critical to maintaining support for the war at home and across the international coalition that currently backs Ukraine.”

    This is an information & propaganda war.

  12. Jim

    November 2, 2022 at 10:04 am

    As stated above this is an information & propaganda war.

    As one commenter put it, “At this hour NO ONE knows what damage was done, if any.”

    That doesn’t matter… the point is… look over here, see the bright shining object… a Ukrainian attack happened… that you can cheer for.

    Meanwhile, Ukraine, regrettably, is suffering electrical system failures due to Russian missile strikes all across the country.

    The important story coming out of Ukraine: systematic degrading of the electrical system.

    Yes, the Ukrainians are able to repair most of the damage, but each time it gets harder to repair, and more permanent damage to the electrical power system is inflicted… and Russian military planners have a better understanding of the system.

    The Sevastopol attack… fills in empty news space…

    Beyond the Russian missile attacks on the electrical grid… people are waiting for the other shoe to drop.

    … other shoe to drop?

    A Russian offensive that effectively ends the war.

    (Many analysts suggest the electrical grid attacks are in preparation for a major Russian offensive.)

    Of course, most commenters, here, don’t believe that is possible… at least that is what they have been told… and they dutifully repeat it… ah… just what propaganda is for.

    And that is what they will believe until shown otherwise.

    We will see, won’t we… loss of territory & cities is awfully hard to spin away to insignificance… one way or another.

    • Ric

      November 2, 2022 at 6:41 pm

      “A Russian offensive that effectively ends the war.”

      Ah yes, “we will take Kyiv in 3 days”. 8 months later, you shills continue to think it is Ukraine, and not Russia, that is getting humiliated and losing this war.

      Keep swallowing that RT propaganda though, it makes for good comedy.

  13. Roger Bacon

    November 2, 2022 at 2:34 pm

    “Video taken during the attack… ”

    Can we get a link? Not that seeing is believing anymore with Deep Fakes and all but it’s better than nothing.

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