Ukraine War Update: The war in Ukraine continues on the 318th day. The Russian assault against Bakhmut is reaching its culmination point after more than six months and tens of thousands of casualties.
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Meanwhile, the Russian military continues to suffer from a manpower problem despite the influx of large numbers of mobilized reservists. Ukraine is too getting strained by the war, but the Ukrainian military continues to push hard all across the battlefield.
Russian Casualties in Ukraine Update
The Russian forces continue to be generally lackluster and poorly trained.
The Ukrainian strike against the makeshift barracks in Makiivka exposed the shortcomings of the Russian-mobilized reservists in the deadliest way.
The Ukrainian Military Intelligence was able to pinpoint the location of the barracks because of the use of cell phones by the Russians and then pass the coordinates to the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) batteries.
The attack is the single deadliest of the war, with anywhere between 89 to 400 Russian troops killed and hundreds more wounded.
The rate of Russian casualties continues to be high. Although the number of troops killed in action every day has slowed down to around 450, in the first week of the new year, the Russian forces have lost more than 4,000 men.
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Saturday, Ukrainian forces have killed approximately 110,740 Russian troops (and wounded approximately twice to thrice that number).
Military equipment destroyed included 285 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets, 272 attack and transport helicopters, 3,066 tanks, 2,062 artillery pieces, 6,125 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 431 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 16 boats and cutters, 4,798 vehicles and fuel tanks, 217 anti-aircraft batteries, 1,844 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 182 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 723 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
Russian Manpower Shortages and the Militia Solution
The Russian military continues to suffer more serious manpower shortages in Ukraine, especially for adequately trained troops.
On the last day of 2022, the Kremlin formally integrated the “armies” of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) and Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), the two unofficial governments of the pro-Russian breakaway provinces. Russian President Vladimir Putin even presented the pro-Russian militias with battle colors to mark their integration into the Russian military.
The Kremlin claims that the two breakaway provinces (and also Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces) are part of Russia following the sham referenda that took place in September.
“The status and identities of the DNR and LNR likely remain divisive within the Russian system. Even before the February 2022 invasion, these territories represented a significant drain on Russian finances,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war.
The Russian military has been controlling the two militias since at least 2014, when the Ukrainian conflict began. Russian officers have been seconded to the militias and served in key roles.
“Now the Kremlin has overtly committed to supporting them, they will likely constitute a large political, diplomatic and financial cost for Russia which will last well beyond the current phase of the conflict,” the British Military Intelligence added.
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Expert Biography: A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate.
