U.S. Officials Say Russian Firepower Down By Three Quarters in Ukraine – U.S. officials reportedly believe that a key part of Russia’s recent troubles in Ukraine, including losing control of several major cities in territories supposedly annexed in September, is a result of dramatically diminished firepower.
This week, U.S. and Ukrainian officials told CNN that Russian artillery fire has recently dropped in places by as much as 75% compared to its wartime highs.
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There is not, however, a single explanation for why Russian firepower has dramatically fallen.
Russia’s struggle to obtain more ammunition for its soldiers has been public knowledge for the majority of the time Russian forces have been in Ukraine. The problem became so significant that videos have emerged online of soldiers complaining about a severe lack of military equipment and supplies on the battlefield.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the private mercenary organization the Wagner Group, even admitted it recently, complaining publicly that the Russian Ministry of Defense is making serious errors and should be providing more weapons, equipment, and autonomy to soldiers on the ground.
In a video that emerged on social media this week, Prigozhyn explained how his soldiers were unable to take control of the city of Bakhmut because of a lack of ammunition and vehicles.
Some Ammunition Just Doesn’t Work in Ukraine
Not only is Russia running out of ammunition, but many artillery rounds fired by Russian forces in Ukraine are failing.
In December, U.S. military officials revealed that Russia was becoming increasingly reliant on 40-year-old ammunition with high failure rates as a result of declining ammunition supplies.
Retired U.S. Army SGT Jonathan Lubecky also told 19FortyFive in December that much of the ammunition fired into Ukraine effectively becomes landmines.
“I can tell you based on what I saw, there’s a lot of duds. Which would tell me either, it’s a manufacturing issue, or the artillery is old as hell,” Lubecky said.
“But if you look at some of the pictures, I sent you a picture of an impact crater on the side of the road and there were at least 20 duds on the ground nearby. And one of the problems is that they also mined the entire area so you can’t step off the pavement. Not only that, but while the duds might not explode when they’re supposed to, that doesn’t mean they won’t at some other point.”
Artillery Fire Rates Are Not Predictable
While Russian artillery fire is down overall, it is proving difficult for analysts and military officials to determine a defining pattern.
According to an unnamed U.S. officially, some days the Russians will fire more artillery rounds than normal, usually in the cities of Kreminna and Bakhmut – cities located in the hotly contested Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts respectively.
Not only is it proving difficult to determine when Russia will fire more rounds than is typical, but Ukrainian and U.S. officials also can’t agree on the average rate of fire. U.S. officials believe that the average number of rounds fired on a daily basis has fallen from 20,000 to 5,000, while Ukrainian officials believe that it has dropped from roughly 60,000 to 20,000 per day.
It’s important to note that Ukrainian officials may have the incentive to be more liberal in their estimations, given that the Ukrainian military depends entirely on foreign support at this rate.
However, it’s also possible that Ukraine may have a more accurate idea of how Russia’s fire capacity compared to U.S. analysts simply because of proximity.
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Jack Buckby is 19FortyFive’s Breaking News Editor. He is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society.
