The war in Ukraine just hit the 400-day mark. And yet, despite 400 days of fighting and extremely heavy losses, Russian forces have failed to achieve any of their objectives on the ground.
The Russian military keeps trying to break through the Ukrainian defenses but without much success.
Ukraine Holds
The Ukrainian military continues to put a fierce defense all across the contract line. Despite the constant Russian pressure, Bakhmut continues to remain in Ukrainian hands. The Russian Wagner Group fighters are within the town but have failed to encircle or push out the Ukrainian defenders.
In part because of the lackluster progress in Bakhmut, the Russian military has shifted some of its offensive weight elsewhere on the battlefield, especially in the direction of Avdiivka, Vuhledar, Kreminna, and Kupyansk.
At the same time, the Ukrainians are getting ready to launch their own large-scale offensive operation somewhere on the battlefield. Kyiv has signaled that its counteroffensive will take place sometime in the late spring or early summer.
Russian Manpower Shortages and Recruitment
The Russian Ministry of Defense is likely getting ready for a major recruitment campaign, according to Russian media reports.
The goal would be to recruit 400,000 professional soldiers, and it would be different from the mobilizations of the reserves that the Kremlin has ordered in the past.
“Russian authorities have likely selected a supposedly ‘volunteer model’ to meet their personnel shortfall in order to minimise domestic dissent. It is highly unlikely that the campaign will attract 400,000 genuine volunteers,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war.
“Rebuilding Russia’s combat power in Ukraine will require more than just personnel; Russia needs more munitions and military equipment supplies than it currently has available,” the British Military Intelligence added.
However, there is a significant shortage of modern weapon systems and munitions in Russia right now, and any new troops would have to make do with obsolete systems like the World War Two designs the Kremlin is sending to the frontlines right now.
Russian Casualties in Ukraine: Update
The Russian forces continue to bleed on the fields and cities of Ukraine. Bakhmut, in particular, has proven to be the graveyard of the Russian Wagner Group private military company, which has lost between 20,000 to 30,000 troops in the months-long battle for the Ukrainian town. The leadership of Wagner Group seems to understand that.
“If Wagner PMC dies in the Bakhmut meat grinder and takes the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the forces given to it with it, then we have fulfilled our historical role,” Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader and funder of Wagner Group, said this week.
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Thursday, Ukrainian forces have killed and wounded approximately 172,900 Russian troops, destroyed 306 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets, 291 attack and transport helicopters, 36,10 tanks, 2,671 artillery pieces, 6,974 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 526 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 18 boats and cutters, 5,518 vehicles and fuel tanks, 277 anti-aircraft batteries, 2,239 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 291 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 911 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
Expert Biography: A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate.
