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2024 U.S. Presidential Election: Will It Decide the Ukraine War?

The political stakes of the Russia-Ukraine War are about to get very high. If neither side can prevail in 2023, the outcome of the American election may well have a decisive effect on the course of the war.

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TOS-1 rocket launcher. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

The political stakes of the Russia-Ukraine War are about to get very high. If neither side can prevail in 2023, the outcome of the American election may well have a decisive effect on the course of the war. Given the likely contrast between the Democratic and Republican nominees it’s certainly possible that the war will become a major campaign issue. If it does, both Ukraine and Russia have every incentive to lean to one side in the 2024 election. The war will be fought on the battlefields of eastern Ukraine, but it very well might be won in the American voting box.

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Note: This Is Part II of a Two-Part Series. Read Part I Here

The stakes are enormous, to the extent that both Ukraine and Russia might be forced to undertake dangerous steps in order to affect the US political situation. If Joe Biden remains President, he will have at his disposal an immense array of tools to aid the Ukrainian war effort and prevent Kyiv’s collapse, even if Republicans make gains in the House and Senate. Russia will at best face another two years of bloody, brutal conflict in Ukraine with little hope of respite. If Donald Trump or another like-minded Republican wins the White House, Ukraine could face a rapid curtailment of aid that would force it to find an accommodation with Russia, almost certainly including territorial cessions and probably also political and diplomatic concessions that might well endanger Kyiv’s democracy. For both the Putin and Zelenskyy governments, the question of the US election is very nearly existential.

Ukraine: Competing Tasks on the Battlefield

Ukraine will want to demonstrate two contradictory facts: First, that it continues to need extensive US support, and second that it can win the war with that support. The Ukrainian armed forces will come under immense pressure to demonstrate significant results during the critical stretches of the 2024 campaign. These kinds of successes would offer effectively free publicity for President Biden’s re-election campaign, as well as embarrassing Donald Trump. But obviously the political stakes could also encourage Ukraine to undertake risks that it would otherwise prefer to avoid.

For Russia the incentives are also straightforward. Assuming that Russia has not decisively defeated Ukraine by the summer and fall of 2024, Russia’s military task will be to convince the American electorate that Ukraine cannot win and that pouring more resources into the cause would be pointless. President Trump and other Republicans have already jumped on this bandwagon, and primed their audiences to believe that Russia cannot be defeated on the battlefield. Russia can win through exhaustion by demonstrating that Ukraine cannot decisively puncture its defense lines, and by continuing to inflict costly damage on the Ukrainian economy and military through an aggressive campaign of drone and missile strikes. Russia already has a fifth of Ukraine; if nothing changes, Moscow “wins,” at least in the sense of controlling the political message.

Making the Case

Both Kyiv and Moscow have more direct means of affecting the US election. President Volodomyr Zelenskyy remains popular in the United States, although it’s probably worth asking whether he’s in danger of reaching the point of media saturation. Ukraine’s impressive public relations establishment will undoubtedly do its best to depict Ukraine’s peril and Ukrainian heroism throughout the final months of the Presidential election. There can be little question that Ukraine will put a full court press on American media as the election grows closer. As discussed earlier, however, Americans often manage to put domestic policy well ahead of foreign policy when voting for Congress and the Presidency.

Moscow has a different set of tools. It is unlikely that anyone believes that a speech by Vladimir Putin would enhance Trump’s electoral prospects; Russia remains toxic in American politics even if Ukraine isn’t universally popular. Instead, Russia can rely on the sort of intervention it conducted in 2016, and that it has conducted in many elections world-wide. This includes cyber-attacks and hacking, but more importantly the development of propaganda narratives that may affect critical slices of the US electorate in important states. The evidence doesn’t show that such efforts had a decisive impact in 2016, but from the Russian point of view every little bit might help.

What Will Happen? 

To be sure, plenty of analysts of the war already believe that it has cemented into a stalemate that neither Ukraine nor Russia will be able to break in the near future. Moreover, regardless of the sympathies of analysts towards either Ukraine or Russia, we should be extremely cautious about allowing those sympathies to color our analysis. If Ukraine is losing the world is not well-served by analyses that falsely claim Ukraine is winning, even if describing reality would tend to benefit Candidate Trump or President Biden.

At the same time, we cannot pretend the politics away. The US election may be the single most important battlefield of the Russia-Ukraine War in 2024. We can expect that both sides will be prepared to bleed in order to make their respective cases.

A 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, Dr. Robert Farley has taught security and diplomacy courses at the Patterson School since 2005. He received his BS from the University of Oregon in 1997, and his Ph. D. from the University of Washington in 2004. Dr. Farley is the author of Grounded: The Case for Abolishing the United States Air Force (University Press of Kentucky, 2014), the Battleship Book (Wildside, 2016), Patents for Power: Intellectual Property Law and the Diffusion of Military Technology (University of Chicago, 2020), and most recently Waging War with Gold: National Security and the Finance Domain Across the Ages (Lynne Rienner, 2023). He has contributed extensively to a number of journals and magazines, including the National Interest, the Diplomat: APAC, World Politics Review, and the American Prospect. Dr. Farley is also a founder and senior editor of Lawyers, Guns and Money.

Written By

Dr. Robert Farley has taught security and diplomacy courses at the Patterson School since 2005. He received his BS from the University of Oregon in 1997, and his Ph.D. from the University of Washington in 2004. Dr. Farley is the author of Grounded: The Case for Abolishing the United States Air Force (University Press of Kentucky, 2014), the Battleship Book (Wildside, 2016), and Patents for Power: Intellectual Property Law and the Diffusion of Military Technology (University of Chicago, 2020). He has contributed extensively to a number of journals and magazines, including the National Interest, the Diplomat: APAC, World Politics Review, and the American Prospect. Dr. Farley is also a founder and senior editor of Lawyers, Guns and Money.

12 Comments

12 Comments

  1. 403Forbidden

    April 17, 2023 at 9:27 am

    The pro-NATO zelenskiyy posse in Ukraine (Donbass) will breathe its last when Putin bravely decides to hurl a couple of tactical nukes at kyiv & other places.

    On march 1 2018, Putin said the west needs to listen to us now, we have the nuke avangard, the nuke kinzhal, the nuke Poseidon, the nuke burevestnik, the nuke sarmat and the hypersonic zircon.

    Now, the dumb ukro war in Donbass is soon going same way as stupid june 1941 Barbarossa operation once Putin looses off a couple of nukes.

  2. Jacksonian Libertarian

    April 17, 2023 at 1:03 pm

    The Greater the competition the better the results.

    Ukraine is adapting to the modern battlefield much better than Russia which is trapped in the past. Russian logistical exhaustion is growing, while Ukrainian adaptation is evolving.

    American politics will not significantly affect the war in 2023 as primary voting doesn’t start until 2024. And Democrat’s support for Ukraine will increase until November 2024 no matter what the eventual outcome.

    Plus many Jacksonian Republicans support a Democratic Ukraine against the corrupt Authoritarian invader Russia. So, Republican support for Ukraine is ambivalent rather than against it (Destroying the Russian military for 10% of the US defense budget is a great deal).

    The Jacksonian School of foreign policy is the largest and most warlike of America’s 4 schools. (Hamiltonian, Wilsonian, Jeffersonian, Jacksonian)

  3. Commentar

    April 17, 2023 at 2:03 pm

    Russia seems keen to avoid using nuclear weapons in Ukraine due to the fact that the 2024 Olympics is around the corner and would like its athletes to take part.

    WHAT THE HELL…..

    Russia also thinks it will eventually be able to reconcile with the west, with Russian tourists on e more welcome to visit London, Paris, Berlin & Oslo.

    WHAT THE HELL……

    WHAT THE HELL……

    The west are a bunch of (????) devious devils, with Washington being the chief of devils.

    NATO, EU, G7 and FiveEyes are fascist outfits very similar or exactly similar in shape & form to the extremely notorious 1940s Tripartite Pact.

    The safety and sovereignty and dignity of Donbass natives are directly affected by reluctant to employ nukes against the fascist forces and their patrons. Western special forces are already involved in Donbass. Similar to the situation during the sixties in south Vietnam.

  4. Gary Jacobs

    April 17, 2023 at 3:58 pm

    Ukraine is unlikely to be a negative campaign issue in a general election. Trump would be a fool to assume he can use that against Biden. All the Ukrainians have to do is make more progress this summer to keep it that way.

    This election will likely be decided by the economy, interest rates, gas prices, etc.

    Since the beginning of the war, polling has been consistent that a large majority support helping Ukraine:

    Feb 6, 2023 Gallup Poll

    “A stable 65% of U.S. adults prefer that the United States support Ukraine in reclaiming its territory, even if that results in a prolonged conflict. Meanwhile, 31% continue to say they would rather see the U.S. work to end the war quickly, even if this allows Russia to keep its territory.”

    March 21, 2023 Gallup Poll of US citizens views on other countries:

    Favorability of Canada 88%, Great Britain 86%

    Russia and North Korea each viewed favorably by 9%

    As for continuing aid to Ukraine, a lot has to do with the way the questions are asked. And Biden has several things to point to on aid to Ukraine being money spent years/decades ago.

    We are not sending them Hummers, Bradleys, Abrams Tanks, or any number of other big ticket items fresh off the assembly line. Those are systems that were paid for by US taxpayers a long time ago.

    And their purpose in life is largely to defeat the Russian military.

    Now they are getting to serve their purpose without a single US soldier being killed.

    Its a pretty easy case to make in a general election.

    Biden’s utter failure in relations with the Saudis, and his energy policies that have caused gas prices to remain high are going to be a far bigger problem than Ukraine.

    I am all for alt. energy sources, but there needs to be a softer transition period.

    And anyone who tells me Jamal Khashoggi’s murder should hold up our foreign policy is completely ignoring the fact he was a raging Jew-hating lunatic who posted his insanity to his own twitter account all the time. An objective person does not have to agree with how he died to not want that to sour relations with the Saudis.

  5. 404NotFound

    April 17, 2023 at 4:11 pm

    Biden, the mike tyson of US presidents, can plan but cannot dictate the end result of the ukraine conflict.

    The reason is putin can rope him into a corner from which there’s no escape.

    Putin can start the move by using nukes against biden’s neo-nazis in ukraine.

    What options does biden have after that (once his expendable ukros have been obliterated). Nuclear bomb iran, china, north korea, venezuela and cuba ??? ???

    Biden will find himself pitifully blindsided or uselessly trapped and unable to extricate himself.

    The only recourse open to biden is to leave the white house and thus allow harris to take over and become president.

  6. El Gato

    April 17, 2023 at 5:41 pm

    Hey Bob, you forgot to add in the likely scenario of The US fighting China at this time also. It’s more likely than not that they will invade Taiwan before Biden leaves office, given our Military’s current record under his administration

  7. pagar

    April 17, 2023 at 9:22 pm

    US presidential election has little influence over the eventual outcome of Ukraine war.

    What will directly (on the American side) affect the war’s future outcome is the extensive US intelligence penetration of Russia’s top political and military elite institutions.

    Thanks, jack.

    That will enrage somebody badly enough (shades of Tianjin 2015) to force Russia to resort to the use of nukes in Ukraine.

    Whoosh, bamm, bamm. Kaboom.

    Viola ! War’s over once the mushroom clouds make their magical appearance over the land. What can all you guys do. Drool at the view ??? Yeah . . . . take a vid of it.

  8. Aldol11

    April 17, 2023 at 10:52 pm

    I might have to vote democrat for the first time in my life

  9. Andrew P

    April 18, 2023 at 11:43 am

    Methinks this war will be over, one way or the other, before the 2024 vote. Taiwan is a different story, however.

  10. Stephen Pershing

    April 18, 2023 at 1:17 pm

    How much more money and weapons must we pour into Ukraine, while our own military posture degrades? How much more slaughter must we endorse in a country that has already been destroyed?

    Ukraine was a nation with a declining population before the Russians invaded, chasing 8.1 million Ukrainians out of the country, displacing 8 million more within the country, killing 17,500 young men and maiming tens of thousands more. The European Commission is forecasting that the population of Ukraine will decline by another 21%-31% by 2052.

    This was has already destroyed Ukraine, its’ cities and its’ people. Continuing to further fuel the carnage and destruction is unconscionable, foolish and detrimental to our own security.

  11. Francis Maikisch

    April 18, 2023 at 10:01 pm

    Calling Ukraine a democracy is a fantasy. They are one of the most corrupt countries in Europe & now we know not only have they been losing, they’ve been stealing our aid money, to include Zelensky himself. We’ve been lied to yet again by our corrupt government & in fact are the cause of this war. Not another dime for Ukraine.

  12. dave

    April 19, 2023 at 3:08 am

    The war was lost on day 1. It`s essentially over right now. No ammo for air defenses, and artillery, and there isn`t any coming from thier “FRIENDS” NATO.

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