Ukraine War Update: On day 414 of the war in Ukraine, Russian officials are starting to cancel the country’s single-most important military event.
Russian Casualties in Ukraine
The Russian forces are taking casualties every day on the ground in Ukraine.
Over the past week or so, the rate has slowed down considerably compared to what the Russian military and the private military company Wagner Group were taking before.
Indeed, the fighting in March was some of the deadliest since the start of the conflict.
Now, the Russian forces average between 400 to 500 dead and wounded every day.
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Thursday, Ukrainian forces have killed and wounded approximately 180590 Russian troops
Destroyed equipment includes: 307 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets, 293 attack and transport helicopters, 3,646 tanks, 2,777 artillery pieces, 7,053 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 535 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 18 boats and cutters, 5,637 vehicles and fuel tanks, 283 anti-aircraft batteries, 2,239 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 320 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 911 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
No Victory Parades
May 9 is a big day on the Russian calendar. On that day, the Russian people—and those of the former Soviet Union—celebrate their country’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two. Before the invasion of Ukraine, May 9 was an opportunity for the Russian Ministry of Defense to show off its latest and most advanced weapon systems.
Provincial leaders of several Russian regions that border Ukraine, including the illegally occupied Crimea, announced that there wouldn’t be a Victory Day parade on May 9.
This measure is most likely the result of active combat operations very close to their regions. A concentration of troops would be an easy target for the Ukrainians, and the Russian forces can’t really spare any troops from the frontlines right now.
Other provinces further away from the front will hold the event as usual.
“However, the different approaches highlight a sensitive communications challenge for the Kremlin. Putin couches the ‘special military operation’ in the spirit of the Soviet experience in World War Two,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war.
Celebrating Victory Day and aligning it with World War Two—or the Great Patriotic War, as Russia calls its fight against Nazi Germany—is risky for the Kremlin.
Russians, especially those in positions of power, understand the key differences between the two wars. In World War Two, Russia was attacked; in Ukraine, Russia attacked. Moreover, the Great Patriotic War is seen as a whole-of-nation approach that managed to beat the Germans. Ukraine’s “special military operation” is anything but a whole-of-nation campaign, and mismanage runs wild.
“Honouring the fallen of previous generations could easily blur into exposing the scope of the recent losses, which the Kremlin attempts to cover up,” the British Military Intelligence added.
The Russian military in Ukraine couldn’t be further from its predecessors that fought for freedom against Nazi Germany.
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Expert Biography: A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
