Where the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive will strike is keeping Russian military officials up at night.
The last time the Ukrainians launched a large-scale counteroffensive, they liberated hundreds of square miles of territory and several key cities in the manner of just a few days.
So, the Russian military has had live with the anticipation and prepare for all contingencies. A likely location is the south, on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces.
On day 413 of the war, the Russian Ministry of Defense continues to bolster its defenses in the south, but questions remain whether it could repel a Ukrainian assault.
Russia’s Defenses in the South
The southern sector of the battlefield has been the quietest. Since November, when the Russian military voluntarily withdrew from the western bank of the Dnipro River and evacuated Kherson City, there hasn’t been any major combat action in the south.
The Ukrainian military has been using long-range fires and special operations raids to harass the Russian forces. On their end, the Russian forces have been digging in in anticipation of a large-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Under the command of the Southern Grouping of Forces (SGF), the Russian forces have built extensive but linear defenses in the area. The fortifications span about 70 miles of territory. They are broken down into three layers: a first, forward defensive line supported by two lines of more elaborate defensive positions with extensive anti-tank fortifications. The supporting lines are about 6 to 12 lines behind the first zone.
“Russia has probably put significant effort into these defensive works because it is convinced Ukraine is considering an assault towards the city of Melitopol,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war.
An attack here would put the Ukrainian military within striking distance of the occupied Crimean Peninsula.
The Russian Ministry of Defense has had to relocate a lot of troops and resources from the south to bolster its offensives elsewhere on the battlefield. This will likely adversely impact its ability to maximize the effectiveness of its fortifications in the south.
“The defences have the potential to be formidable obstacles, but their utility almost entirely depends on them being supported by sufficient artillery and personnel. It remains unclear if the SGF can currently muster these resources,” the British Military Intelligence added.
Russian Casualties in Ukraine
The past 24 hours have been some of the deadliest for the Russian forces in a while in Ukraine. The Russian military and Wagner Group private military company lost more than 700 men killed or wounded, as well as 27 heavy weapon systems.
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Wednesday, Ukrainian forces have killed and wounded approximately 180050 Russian troops.
Destroyed equipment includes: 307 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets, 293 attack and transport helicopters, 3,646 tanks, 2,770 artillery pieces, 7,043 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 535 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 18 boats and cutters, 5,630 vehicles and fuel tanks, 282 anti-aircraft batteries, 2,234 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 319 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 911 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
Expert Biography
A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
