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Bad News: Is Ukraine Rethinking A New Counteroffensive?

While Russian forces have yet to take control of Bakhmut officially, Moscow could be on the verge of achieving a symbolic victory that forces Western leaders to consider a new approach to making peace in Ukraine. If President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is right, that could include encouraging Kyiv to cede some territory to Moscow in exchange for a ceasefire. 

Wagner Group vs. Ukraine. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Wagner Group vs. Ukraine

CNN reported on Monday that Ukrainian forces might be reconsidering plans for an expected counteroffensive in eastern Ukraine following a massive leak of classified American documents.

Citing comments from Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of the Ukrainian ground forces, Reuters reported that Russian troops continue “pounding” Ukrainian positions in and around Bakhmut. 

Syrskyi reportedly described how Russian forces have adopted “scorched earth” tactics in Bakhmut, as they did in Syria, resulting in the total destruction of buildings and Ukrainian positions in the area using air strikes and artillery fire. The tactics could prove to be just what the Russians needed, too, with Russian authorities claiming that invaders now control 75% of the city. 

In an interview with Russian state media outlet Rossiya 24 TV, the Russian-installed leader of occupied Donetsk, Dennis Pushilin, described how Russian forces are finally taking control of the city after more than a year of conflict and several months of particularly intense fighting in Bakhmut

“I can say with absolute certainty, that more than 75% of the city is under the control of our units,” Pushilin said.

Last week, Wagner Group forces reached the center of the eastern Ukrainian city. It follows months of intense fighting that saw the Russian side lose thousands of private mercenaries and soldiers, as well as substantial quantities of military hardware, weapons, and ammunition. In March, British diplomat Ian Stubbs estimated that as many as 30,000 Russian personnel had been injured or killed in Bakhmut since May, 2022.

What Was in the Leaked Documents?

Speaking to Reuters on Friday, unnamed Ukrainian officials said the leaked documents contained inaccurate information and fictitious stories created by Russian propagandists. According to U.S. officials who spoke to CNN, however, the documents also contain authentic reports and intelligence, revealing some examples of U.S. officials listening in on private calls between officials in allied countries, including Ukraine, Israel, and South Korea.  

Some of the documents revealed in the massive leak, which has reportedly been going on for several weeks, also expose some of Ukraine’s biggest weaknesses on the battlefield. The documents reportedly include information about Ukrainian battalion sizes, the state of the country’s air defenses, and key weapons in use on the battlefield. 

On Thursday, April 6, the Pentagon confirmed that an investigation was underway to determine the source of classified documents that reportedly emerged on social media. 

In light of the leak, Ukrainian officials have already reportedly begun changing plans for an expected counteroffensive this spring, according to CNN. The Pentagon also responded to the leaks by taking new steps to secure the sharing of sensitive communications. 

In a statement, Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said on Sunday that the Department of Defense will continue to “review and assess the validity of the photographed documents” that emerged online and that an ongoing investigation into the leak involves several government agencies. 

The Latest In Bakhmut

Amidst the chaos, however, Ukrainian forces continue to fight. Video footage shared on Facebook by the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shows how Ukrainian forces continue to engage with Russian forces in Bakhmut. The dramatic video footage, which includes shots recorded from both the ground and the air, shows Ukrainian troops from the 92nd Mechanized Brigade exchanging fire. 

“Tankers of the 92nd OMBr named after of the basket chieftain Ivan Sirk, Official page work under Bakhmut,” the post reads.

Russia’s scorched earth tactics in Bakhmut have turned an already abandoned city into a wasteland, with huge residential buildings and civilian infrastructure left either completely destroyed or in states of disrepair. 

Ukrainian forces in the region have relied extensively not just on air defense systems and missile launchers supplied by the West, but also on commercially-available drones donated in huge numbers. The drones, often adapted to drop grenades and other munitions from the air, have given Ukrainian forces a reliable and safe way to strike Russian positions, equipment, and vehicles with great precision in Bakhmut – but reports suggest that those drones may not be useful for much longer.

Yaroslav, a 31-year-old Kharkiv resident recruited to fight in Ukraine, told Western reporters how Russian forces use jamming systems designed to take control of DJI drones – and other commercial, non-military drones – while they’re in the air. 

“They’re adept and they are manufacturing these special jamming systems,” the Ukrainain soldier said. “So actually, I believe like in three, four months, DJI will not be usable.”

While Russian forces have yet to officially take control of Bakhmut, Moscow could be on the verge of achieving a symbolic victory that forces Western leaders to consider a new approach to making peace in Ukraine. If President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is right, that could include encouraging Kyiv to cede some territory to Moscow in exchange for a ceasefire. 

Jack Buckby is 19FortyFive’s Breaking News Editor. He is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society.

Written By

Jack Buckby is 19FortyFive's Breaking News Editor. He is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society.

8 Comments

8 Comments

  1. Gary Jacobs

    April 11, 2023 at 8:42 pm

    Highly unlikely Ukraine does not follow through with counter offensive[s].

    As well, the media has done a great job of misinterpreting what’s in those leaked documents.

    For the most part, If the leaked documents are real, then they’re a good sign for Ukraine.

    They indicate that in February the US looked at what Ukraine needed, and in March the US delivered exactly what was recommended in two separate aid packages that add up to about $3 Billion. One at the beginning of the month and one at the end.

    The March 3 announcement of a $400M package includes more HIMARS, artillery, and equipment for bridging rivers and streams.

    Just three weeks later, the US followed up with a $2.6B package again dominated by ammunition. HIMARS rockets, tank ammunition, anti aircraft ammo, and still more artillery. That package also contains fuel trucks, more bridging and recovery vehicles, and more anti aircraft systems.

    If the February analysis [which was likely made even earlier] says that the U.S. believed Ukraine is short of ammunition, the first March package looks tailor made to address that issue.

    If the February analysis believed Ukraine lacked everything it needed to liberate and hold territory, the big package announced at the end of March looks as if it was absolutely designed to fill in the gaps in Ukraine’s logistics.

    If those leaks in February were a checklist, the packages in March ticked every box.

    -Ammunition.

    -Fuel trucks to keep tanks and armor moving forward.

    -Bridging equipment to prevent either rivers or tank trenches from slowing forward movement.

    -Anti-aircraft gear to prevent Russia from obtaining anything like air superiority.

    -More ammunition.

    These documents weren’t created as the kind of hand wringing assessment the Washington Post and others are headlining this morning.

    They were made to point out problems that could be fixed. And then the U.S. military moved to fix them.

    They’re not the only ones. Ammunition has been a focal point of assistance packages from the UK, Poland, France, and others.

    It’s almost as if they watched the same slide show.

    Those leaked documents—assuming they were real, assuming they were leaked—don’t show that Ukraine is failing or is doomed to fail.

    This isn’t a final report on a war that’s over. It’s observations of events in motion that are designed to highlight potential issues expressly so they can be addressed.

    You know who else didnt think Ukraine was prepared for an extended counteroffensive in February? Everyone. Including Ukraine.

    But then again Ukraine was never going to conduct a counteroffensive in February. Or in March.

  2. dave

    April 12, 2023 at 3:46 am

    Peace LOL after the phony Minsk agreements? Russia is going to complete victory, and it`s all on NATO stupidity.

  3. TheDon

    April 12, 2023 at 8:20 am

    Well why not tell them the date and time.

    The Russians will want out when they get tired of loss of young Russians. Doesnt need to be a hail mary.

    Losses made them leave Afghanistan and us out of Vietnam.

    Takes a little longer but preserves a smaller force.

    D

  4. from Russia with love

    April 12, 2023 at 8:24 am

    @Gary Jacobs
    “Highly unlikely Ukraine does not follow through with counter offensive[s].”
    will continue? counteroffensive??? when you write about counter-offensive do you mean reverse attack? For the last 4 months, Ukraine has only been losing territory, settlements, a large amount of manpower and armor. you want to say that Ukraine will continue to do this?
    “But then again Ukraine was never going to conduct a counteroffensive in February. Or in March.”
    Of course, how can a Gary Jacobs post go without a lie! 🙂 just two weeks ago, Zelensky, Danilov and other clowns from Kyiv reported that the offensive would begin in a couple of weeks. Last week, Danilov already stated that it is not worth waiting for a specific date, and today he is already saying that the counteroffensive will be in the summer. “spring” counteroffensive in the summer. 🙂 LOL
    I really liked the rationale for postponing the counteroffensive. It turns out that it is impossible to attack due to the fact that the press got documents in which it is written that there are not enough suicide bombers in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. that is, if the documents had not been made public, would the Ukrainian units have been fully staffed? on paper? but now Danilov will not be able to lie? LOL 🙂

  5. Maralexa

    April 12, 2023 at 12:20 pm

    US always use “scorched earth” strategy even with an adversary much weaker than itself, i.e. in every major conflict.

  6. Time for Some Truth

    April 14, 2023 at 3:09 am

    So why aren’t you fighting in Ukraine for Wagner then, son??

    And, hilariously, you seem to be calling 14 months of war, for tiny Bakhmut as some MASSIVE achievement, for the so called capable Russian military?!

    Suddenly taking 14 months to still be NOWHERE NEAR KYIV to replace Zelensky, you seem to feel that this disgraceful performance is something to gloat about?!

    Go steal toilet plumbing and piping like real Russians do in war zones, having never seen the likes in their own homes yet! hahahaha

  7. Time for Some Truth

    April 14, 2023 at 3:12 am

    Yes, Nato, not the russian leadership who has had their exceedingly embarrassing army who has invaded another country.

    Hahahaha. Talking about phony agreements…as a way to defend Russia?!

    Oh my word, not sure where to even start with that you imbecile! Hahaha.

    Armenia maybe?? Ukraine?? Promises from russians mean as little as attempts at logic by you, they mean absolutely nothing, moron.

  8. from Russia with love

    April 18, 2023 at 6:30 am

    @Time for Some Truth
    you wanted to tell everyone that you’re an idiot? you did great! 🙂 lol
    why should I go to Wagner? I have a great job without risk to my life. 😉 I, in Russia, do not have martial law and total mobilization as in Ukraine. We are living a normal life here. 😉 Are you offended? 🙂
    in the first two months, the West had a chance to get away with only the return of Ukraine, but now we will take the entire EU. 🙂 Ukrainian armor and aviation have long been destroyed, now we are destroying NATO armor and aircraft supplied by NATO. 😉 When the Ukrainians run out, NATO will put you in Ukraine and our army will destroy you. how do you like the outlook?
    steal plumbing? it looks like you are romanian or ukrainian. LOL 🙂 no, civilized people, like in Russia, buy plumbing in stores. Russian, German, French… you know about sanctions and how they work? everything that the EU supplied to Russia continues to do so. as well as Russian goods continue to enter the EU. these sanctions, such sanctions. 🙂 Today I’m going to Leroy Merlin, a chain of French stores, I need to buy something for repairs. 🙂 can you imagine, a set of French stores continues to work in Russia! despite the fact that “all firms have left Russia.” all 9%. 🙂 and even out of these 9%, many are trying to quietly return back to Russia. 🙂

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