The postwar order of Europe was built on a series of economic, political, and security pillars, but in recent years it has become clear that the foundations of those pillars have begun to shift. The economic preeminence of the West is being challenged as never before. The continent’s political center of gravity is shifting eastward. Well-documented weaknesses in the military capabilities of NATO countries have cast doubt on the alliance’s ability to deter conflict and defeat aggression. Now, some governments, particularly in Eastern Europe, are beginning to pursue strategies to build new military, economic and even political structures while still seeking to maintain their traditional relationships with NATO and the European Union.
It is important for U.S. leaders to recognize that from the viewpoint of Eastern European governments, the area’s geostrategic environment on the continent is changing rapidly and not for the better. As explained to me by a senior official from one of these countries, from the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 until the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 there were three working strategic assumptions in Europe. The first was that the wealth of Western Europe would be underwritten by cheap natural resources from Russia. The corollary to this assumption was that as Moscow became more dependent on economic ties with Western Europe, Russia’s economy and political values would evolve to align more with the West.
The second assumption, according to this individual, was that Europe’s security would be inexpensive and easy as a result of the American alliance and Russia’s interest in maintaining its economic relationship with the West. Rich Western European nations also relied on former Warsaw Pact countries and the newly-independent Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova as a substantial buffer zone between themselves and Russia.
The third assumption was that globalization would continue to strengthen. Europe was the beneficiary of globalization, particularly in its growing relationship with China. For Europe, China was a thriving business partner. If there was a competitive side to this relationship, it was in economics and technology, not security.
This individual went on to argue that both Western and Eastern European countries, but especially the latter, awoke to a new reality on February 23, 2022. Cheap energy and resources from Russia are almost gone. For Eastern European countries, this decoupling of Europe from Russia is a positive development. Resources will no longer flow from east to west, but from north to south.
Security is no longer cheap. Germany has raised its defense spending by 100 billion euros, an unprecedented decision. There is also a new NATO force model. Until recently, NATO’s goal was to have 40,000 troops on high readiness. The goal now is 300,000.
China is taking advantage of the current crisis in Europe, buying Russian oil, raw materials and agricultural products at fire sale prices. Beijing is reportedly providing Moscow with non-lethal military assistance while building up its own military to be capable of dominating the Western Pacific. Given that Chinese aggression toward Taiwan would have devastating repercussions for the European economy, the Biden administration is trying to convince Europe not to do business with China, but this could spell the end of the drive towards globalization.
Poland is the poster child for how the countries of Eastern Europe are responding to the evolving geostrategic environment in Europe. Poland’s overarching reality is determined by its geography. It is shielded by the Baltic Sea in the north and the Carpathian Mountains to the south, but exposed by the broad, flat Central European Plain at the east and west. It also has a troubled history, to say the least, with its immediate neighbors to the east and west. Poland thinks of itself geographically as central, in neither Eastern nor Western Europe.
Poland’s strategy for dealing with the prospective end of the post-World War II order in Europe has three elements. First, it is drawing closer to the U.S. This is why Warsaw welcomed the presence of U.S. forces on its soil even on a rotational basis. Recognizing its centrality to American and NATO security interests in Europe, the U.S. has decided to permanently station forces in Poland, including a newly re-established Army Corps headquarters.
Second, Poland is building up its self-defense capabilities. It is expanding its military and looking to develop greater indigenous defense industrial capacity. Even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Poland was in the midst of a major military modernization campaign, replacing its obsolescent Soviet-era equipment with updated systems. Much of that equipment comes from the United States. Warsaw is acquiring more than 300 Abrams tanks, dozens of HIMARS rocket launchers, 48 F-16 fighters, 32 F-35A stealth fighters, and nearly 100 tank-killing Apache helicopters. Warsaw has also signed contracts to acquire almost 1,000 tanks and hundreds of self-propelled artillery systems from South Korea. Poland is rapidly becoming the linchpin of NATO’s security on the alliance’s eastern flank.
Third, Poland is actively expanding its security and economic ties in Eastern Europe. Early last year, it signed a tripartite security pact with the U.K. and Ukraine. Poland is looking to provide support to other Eastern European countries as they develop their military capabilities. As more countries in Eastern Europe look to acquire U.S. military platforms such as Abrams tanks and F-35 fighters, Poland would be a logical location for regional repair and maintenance facilities for these systems.
Likewise, Poland is forging new economic structures centered in Eastern Europe. Warsaw was instrumental in bringing about the Three Seas Initiative, which connects a group of twelve nations that border the Baltic, Adriatic, and Black Seas. More recently, Poland, Romania and Ukraine agreed to establish a new economic community.
The first two pillars of postwar Europe’s stability and development have collapsed and the third is in danger. The countries of Eastern Europe are acutely aware of the changing international environment. They are looking to enhance their economic well-being, even if the world retreats from globalization, and build additional security structures to enhance deterrence of Russia in the future.
Author Expertise and Experience
Dr. Daniel Goure is Senior Vice President with the Lexington Institute, a nonprofit public-policy research organization headquartered in Arlington, Virginia. He is involved in a wide range of issues as part of the institute’s national security program. Dr. Goure has held senior positions in both the private sector and the U.S. Government. Most recently, he was a member of the 2001 Department of Defense Transition Team. Dr. Goure spent two years in the U.S. Government as the director of the Office of Strategic Competitiveness in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. He also served as a senior analyst on national security and defense issues with the Center for Naval Analyses, Science Applications International Corporation, SRS Technologies, R&D Associates and System Planning Corporation. Goure is a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor.
