On day 419 of the conflict in Ukraine, the Russian military and Wagner Group mercenaries are pouring more men into Bakhmut. Pressure is increasing on Ukrainian forces there.
Bakhmut: There and Back Again
The fight for the town of Bakhmut has been going on for more than 10 months. The Russian forces have made significant progress both inside the town and to the flanks. The Ukrainian garrison isn’t surrounded — at least for now — but it’s under pressure from three directions.
The frontline now sits along the main railway line that runs through Bakhmut. House-to-house fighting is taking place, mitigating any numerical advantage on either side. Ukrainian forces continue to maintain some supply routes into the town.
Over the previous weeks, the Russian forces shifted troops and resources from Bakhmut to other parts of the Donbas, such as Avdiivka and Vuhledar. But now it looks like they are moving more forces back to Bakhmut.
“There is a realistic possibility that Russia has reduced troop numbers and is decreasing offensive action around Donetsk city, most likely to divert resources towards the Bakhmut sector,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate on the war.
“For both sides, the exact sequencing of any major drawdown of their units around Bakhmut has become a critical question, with Ukraine wanting to free up an offensive force while Russia likely aspires to regenerate an operational reserve,” British Military Intelligence added.
Russian Casualties
Russian forces continue to suffer casualties on the ground in Ukraine. However, the rate of casualties has slowed significantly over the past couple of weeks. Indeed, April is looking to be one of the less deadly for the Russian forces in a good while.
Almost three weeks into April, the Russian military and Wagner Group private military company have lost a little over 9,000 troops killed and wounded, according to the latest figures coming out of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
For comparison, the Russian forces lost more than 24,000 troops killed or wounded in March, which was the peak of an upward trend. In February, the Russian forces lost about 21,500 troops, and in January, more than 20,000 men.
In terms of casualties, April looks like it will return to the levels of November and December, when Russian forces lost about 16,500 men killed and wounded.
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Tuesday, Ukrainian forces have killed and wounded approximately 183,130 Russian troops. They also claim to have destroyed 308 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets; 293 attack and transport helicopters; 3,661 tanks, 2,810 artillery pieces, and 7,098 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles; 538 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems; 18 boats and cutters; 5,676 vehicles and fuel tanks; 285 anti-aircraft batteries; 2,253 tactical unmanned aerial systems; 330 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, as well as four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems; and 911 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
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Expert Biography: A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. He is currently working towards a Master’s Degree in Strategy and Cybersecurity at the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
