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Ukraine War Update: How Many Soldiers Has Putin Lost? (Think 200,000)

Without proper military equipment and vehicles, Russian soldiers are dying off way faster than Putin predicted. In the ongoing incursion of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, hundreds of Russian soldiers and aligned mercenaries are being killed for every kilometer of ground they seize. According to an expert’s statement in Newsweek, “Since May last year, between 20,000 and 30,000 Wagner and regular Russian forces have been killed and wounded in the area around Bakhmut alone; a huge loss of human life for a total territorial advance of approximately just 25 kilometers (15.5 miles). Now that Western tanks are supposed to reach Ukraine in the upcoming weeks and months, Russian soldiers should expect an even more brutal fate in Bakhmut. 

Ukraine Attack on Russian Military Social Media Screenshot

Back in February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin strongly believed he could mastermind a sweeping assault on sovereign Ukraine over the span of a few days. More than one year and approximately as many as  200,000 deaths later, however, prospects for Moscow’s offensive effort have been severely jeopardized

Footage widely circulated on social media depicting the humiliating defeat of Russia’s “top-of-the-line” main battle tanks, “formidable” fighter jet platforms, and lacking missile arsenal has shown how unprepared Russia is for such an invasion. It appears that Putin’s mission to “demilitarize and de-nazify” Ukraine may not come to fruition, considering Kyiv’s fortitude and perseverance to hold the line. 

Has Putin’s Initial Military Objective Changed?

On February 24, 2022, Putin announced his “special military operation” to save Ukrainians from “eight years of Ukrainian bullying and genocide” in a widely circulated propaganda video. The Russian president also pledged to prevent the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) from gaining a foothold in the country. 

In reality, tensions between Ukraine and Russia began to escalate when the sovereign state began to align itself more with Western countries in recent years. The Ukrainian government even publicly declared its interest in joining the international body, which was founded in part to counter the former USSR’s expansionist policies. Russia’s demand to prevent Ukraine from joining the 28-member platform remains a key tenant of its war mission. The foundation of Putin’s offensive efforts is primarily based on the president’s desire to reinstate the Soviet Union’s territorial boundaries and lead a new “Russian Federation.”

Following more than twelve months of warfare, the biggest success Russia could lay claim to is the establishment of a land bridge from the country’s border to Crimea – which was annexed illegally in 2014. This strategic bridge has broadened Moscow’s abilities since it is no longer singularly reliant on its Kerch Strait bridge. 

Prior to the outbreak of war, the Russian propaganda machine largely touted that the country’s premiere fighter jets, tanks, and other munitions were to be feared. That message has sorely backfired. In its first month of fighting, Russia had already lost a full quarter of its massive invasion force, including 274 tanks, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Moscow’s fighter jet arsenal has not fared much better than the country’s tanks. Although Russia’s multirole Sukhoi Su-34 supersonic fighter bomber was designed to lead the country’s aerial fleets, the platform has not performed up to its potential. Due to Russia’s precision-guided munition shortage, its Su-34’s are only lugging dated and less sophisticated dumb bombs.

More and More Russian Soldiers are Dying in Bakhmut 

Without proper military equipment and vehicles, Russian soldiers are dying off way faster than Putin predicted. In the ongoing incursion of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, hundreds of Russian soldiers and aligned mercenaries are being killed for every kilometer of ground they seize. According to an expert’s statement in Newsweek, “Since May last year, between 20,000 and 30,000 Wagner and regular Russian forces have been killed and wounded in the area around Bakhmut alone; a huge loss of human life for a total territorial advance of approximately just 25 kilometers (15.5 miles). Now that Western tanks are supposed to reach Ukraine in the upcoming weeks and months, Russian soldiers should expect an even more brutal fate in Bakhmut. 

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Author Expertise and Biography

Maya Carlin, a Senior Editor for 19FortyFive, is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel.

Written By

Maya Carlin, a Senior Editor for 19FortyFive, is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel.

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