The fighting in Ukraine continues. On day 431 of the war, the Russian forces are pushing hard to finish the job in the town of Bakhmut in the Donbas.
On the other side, the Ukrainian military continues to play defense across the contact line as it prepares to launch its large-scale counteroffensive sometime in the next few weeks.
Fighting on the Ground and Russian Casualties
The downward trend in Russian casualties persists.
The Russian forces are losing an average of 400 to 450 men killed or wounded every day and about 20 to 30 heavy weapon systems. The lower rate of casualties shows the relative lull in the fighting.
To be sure, there is combat taking place, but it isn’t large-scale. The Russian forces continue to push Bakhmut, but the Ukrainian garrison continues to cling to the western parts of the town. The Ukrainian military has also managed to keep the vital resupply routes leading into the town open.
In the east, the Russian forces have largely stopped attacking along the Svatove-Kreminna line of contact. But they continue to use artillery to target Ukrainian positions in the area and further west in Kupyansk. Since September, the Russian forces in the area have been trying to prevent the fall of Svatove, which is a key logistical node that supplies not only units in the area but also in the Donbas.
Although combat has slowed down relative to previous weeks, the rate of casualties won’t be falling for too long. Once the Ukrainian military launches its upcoming large-scale counteroffensive, both sides will start taking more losses. The Ukrainian military has managed to create reserves to draw from and sustain large-scale offensive operations.
On the other side, the Russian forces are suffering from a perennial manpower shortage. Making things worse for Moscow is the fact that a lot of Russian units have been on the frontlines for months now without any meaningful rest and recuperation period.
The large-scale offensive that the Kremlin launched in January not only failed but also depleted Russian reserves. Russian forces are now more vulnerable to a Ukrainian attack, and the Kremlin understands that.
The latest missile attacks against Ukraine are intended to target transportation nodes and facilities that the Ukrainian military is using for the preparation of its upcoming counteroffensive. Despite launching close to 50 cruise missiles, the Russian military failed to achieve anything significant besides killing innocent people.
Russian Casualties in Ukraine
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Monday, Ukrainian forces have killed and wounded approximately 190960 Russian troops.
Destroyed equipment includes: 308 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets, 294 attack and transport helicopters, 3,700 tanks, 2,921 artillery pieces, 7,192 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 544 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 18 boats and cutters, 5,845 vehicles and fuel tanks, 295 anti-aircraft batteries, 2,476 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 359 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 932 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
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A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
