In the next few weeks, the Ukrainian military is poised to launch a large-scale counteroffensive on the ground that could change the face of the battlefield.
The Ukrainian political and military leadership has been setting the ground for the operation for a while now.
But besides main battle tanks and artillery, the Ukrainian military will most likely rely on different pairs of weapon systems to pull off a successful counteroffensive: armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles.
Ukraine Counteroffensive and Mechanized Infantry
Starting in January, the coalition of Western nations that has been supporting the Ukrainian fight with weapon systems and money since the start of the invasion unleashed another wave of security aid.
This time, the Western coalition’s security aid wasn’t just about artillery systems, ammunition, and M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS).
For a long time, Kyiv had been asking for the weapon systems that would allow it to unroll the Russian gains and liberate captured territory, namely, main battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and armored personnel carriers.
So, the West delivered tanks. It all started with the United Kingdom committing a squadron of Challenger 2 main battle tanks. Then, after much diplomatic back and forth, the United States committed 31 M1 Abrams and Germany two companies of Leopard 2 tanks; Berlin also gave the green light to countries using the Leopard, such as Poland, Finland, Canada, and Spain, to send their tanks to Ukraine. In total, the West has committed more than 200 main battle tanks to the Ukrainian forces.
In addition to the tanks, the West committed several hundred infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, including the American M2 Bradley, German Marder A1, and Swedish CV-90. It is these infantry fighting vehicles and the armored personnel carriers that will seal any Ukrainian victory.
Yes, tanks can shatter an enemy’s defenses and create a gap. But mechanized infantry, following closely behind the tanks, takes advantage of that gap and turns it into a concrete success. The war in Ukraine has been largely taking place in urban centers, ranging from small villages to towns, like Bakhmut, to large cities, like Kharkiv and Kherson. Tanks can’t operate effectively within urban centers without the close support of infantry. It is infantry that holds ground.
The Ukrainian military will be much more effective now that it has both the tanks and the supporting heavy weapon systems.
Western Weapon Systems
During testimony before the House Armed Services Committee this week, General Christopher G. Cavoli, the commanding general of U.S. European Command (EUCOM) and NATO, said that almost all of the promised weapon systems for Ukraine’s counteroffensive had been delivered.
“Over 98 percent of the combat vehicles are already there. I am very confident that we have delivered the matériel that they need, and we’ll continue a pipeline to sustain their operations as well,” Gen. Cavoli added.
But Gen. Cavoli wasn’t referring to just U.S. weapon systems. NATO and other allies and partners have delivered most of the necessary material for the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive.
“We checked it a couple of times, and we gathered it from our allies, who were very generous, especially with regard to tanks and armored fighting vehicles. And we have been shipping it into the country,” Gen. Cavoli stated.
“The Ukrainians are in a good position,” the top U.S. officer in Europe added.
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A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
