The Russian military has advanced in and around Bakhmut over the past few days. However, the Ukrainian military is still in control of portions of the town and some key supply routes.
Besides Bakhmut, the Russian forces have been attacking in the direction of Avdiivka in the Donbas.
Despite repeated attacks, the Russian forces have failed to achieve much progress.
Ukraine War: An Update
In the east, the Russian military continues to launch limited assaults along the Kreminna-Svatove line of contact.
Like in the Donbas, despite the repeated attacks in this sector, the Russian forces haven’t achieved anything more significant that pushing the Ukrainian forces slightly back from the two of Kreminna.
In the south, the Russian military has been working on building a network of fortifications in anticipation of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which might strike in the area as it offers the most direct route to the Crimean Peninsula.
On day 409 of the conflict, the Russian military is still struggling to achieve something concrete on the ground in Ukraine.
Russian Casualties in Ukraine
The Russian military and Wagner Group mercenary group are still significant casualties on a daily basis.
Over the past 24 hours, the Russian forces lost almost 600 troops killed or wounded, twelve vehicles and fuel tanks, seven unmanned aerial systems, five artillery pieces, four armored personnel carriers, three tanks, one aircraft, and one air defense system.
Taken individually, these weapon system losses aren’t significant. But days of this attrition are taking a toll on a Russian military that was unprepared for a sustained campaign in Ukraine.
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Saturday, Ukrainian forces have killed and wounded approximately 177,680 Russian troops.
Destroyed equipment: 307 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets, 292 attack and transport helicopters, 3,636 tanks, 2,727 artillery pieces, 7,020 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 533 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 18 boats and cutters, 5,599 vehicles and fuel tanks, 282 anti-aircraft batteries, 2,291 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 304 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 911 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
Russian Missile Strikes
Starting in October, the Russian military started a long-fires campaign targeting the Ukrainian power grid.
“Russia’s campaign to severely degrade Ukraine’s unified energy system (UES) within the 2022-23 winter has highly likely failed. Russia has conducted long-range strikes since October 2022, but large-scale attacks have become rare since early March 2023,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war.
The Russian military is still launching missiles and suicide drones against Ukrainian critical infrastructure and urban centers but without much success.
Ukrainian power companies have had to make do, but despite the difficulties, they have managed to largely overcome the death and destruction that the Russian military rained on Ukraine.
“Ukraine’s energy situation will likely improve with the arrival of warmer weather. Planning and preparations for next winter have likely already begun,” the British Military Intelligence added.
By then, the Ukrainian military will have more advanced air defense, such as the MIM-104 Patriot and National Advanced Air-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS), in operation.
Expert Biography: A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
