Bakhmut. A name few people outside Ukraine had heard of before the full-scale Russian invasion on February 24, 2022.
Now, almost 14 months later, Bakhmut is the center of the longest and bloodiest battle of the war in Ukraine so far. The Kremlin has committed and lost tens of thousands of troops to capture Bakhmut.
But Bakhmut has the potential of becoming a trap for the Ukrainians too.
The Battle for Bakhmut
The battle for the small town in the Donbas continues.
Over the past few weeks, the Russian forces have made significant advances in and around Bakhmut. Whereas in January and February, the Russian military and Wagner Group mercenaries were having trouble even getting into the town, now they are in control of most of Bakhmut.
They have also advanced to the north and south of the town and continue threatening the Ukrainian garrison with envelopment. But in return for advancing a few miles and capturing some blocks of flattened buildings, the Russian forces have suffered horrendous casualties.
According to Western intelligence estimates, the Wagner Group private military company alone has lost between 20,000 to 30,000 troops in the fight for Bakhmut. Moreover, since January, the Russian forces have lost close to 80,000 troops killed and wounded. A good chunk of these casualties has taken place in the fight for Bakhmut.
Throughout the siege, the Russian forces have been shifting their weight among the three different axes of advance to determine vulnerabilities on the Ukrainian lines. Fighting in and around the town is constant. On Thursday alone, the Ukrainian military repelled 22 Russian assaults against its positions in and around Bakhmut.
On the other side, the Ukrainian military seems to be in control of the situation.
It might be losing ground in Bakhmut, but it does so with discipline and organization. The Ukrainians haven’t allowed the Russian forces to overwhelm them. Some supply lines continue to go into the town, providing crucial resupply to the embattled garrison. But the Ukrainian forces have also suffered heavy losses in defense of the town.
The Bakhmut Trap
The Ukrainian strategic rationale all along for holding on to Bakhmut was that it diverted Russian forces from attacking elsewhere on the battlefield. Bakhmut was designed as a giant meat grinder. And it has been just that, as evidenced by the Russian casualties.
However, the Ukrainian leadership must be careful not to fall into its trap. With a large-scale counteroffensive in the works, the Ukrainian forces will need every troop they can spare. Sacrificing experienced men and wasting precious ammunition in Bakhmut could jeopardize the success of the counteroffensive.
The most bewildering thing about Bakhmut is that, in military terms, it isn’t that important. Indeed, the small Ukrainian town just happens to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. When the battlefield was more fluid, and the Russian forces were pursuing bigger objectives than capturing a small town in eastern Ukraine, there was little fighting around the town. But with the rest of the Russian offensives having failed, Bakhmut presents an objective with political hues for the Kremlin. Capturing the town would give Moscow something to brag about all the losses it has suffered.
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Expert Biography
A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
