Representative Seth Moulton (D-MA) has a crackerjack new idea for preventing China from invading Taiwan. He wants the US military to blow up the TSMC semiconductor fabrication plant on the besieged island.
His logic makes sense in a certain Strangelovian way: if Beijing thinks the Americans will destroy this factory that is essential for creating nearly 90 percent of the world’s computer chips to prevent China from gaining control of it, China might be deterred from trying to take the island.
After all, China, like the rest of the world, requires access to those computer chips for their economy, military, and overall society to function.
The only problem with this plan is that the United States relies on computer chips as well. Presently, only a handful of foreign firms, like Samsung and TSMC have demonstrated the consistent, sophisticated manufacturing capabilities to produce the kind of advanced chips that the world requires.
Here in the United States, the country that invented silicon-based computing, the Americans have ceded their dominance to Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan decades ago. Yes, there are some US firms that still produce semiconductors but not at the scale that those foreign firms do.
First, Do No Harm
Moulton’s idea smacks of desperation. Certainly, the American position as it relates to China has gotten increasingly desperate. Yet, pulling the temple down over our heads, as the destruction of the TSMC would be akin to, is insane. Not only would we damage China by destroying a key distributor of these essential computer chips, but we’d be denying ourselves that technology.
Overnight, nearly every product would become unaffordable. Already suffering from the shortages that the COVD-19-related shutdowns caused, as well as the inflation that high amounts of spending caused (along with high interest rates), the idea that America’s economy could survive being cut off from its reliable supply of computer chips is ridiculous.
We would effectively be cutting off our nose to spite our face if the US military embraced Rep. Moulton’s idea.
The Americans proposing this plan believe that the mere threat would make China so afraid of losing this critical capability (they also depend on the TSMC factory and have yet to be able to indigenously produce computer chips as small or potent that TSMC and Samsung can build). Given the costs this action would incur on America, Beijing likely believes that Washington is bluffing.
I don’t believe Moulton and the political class in Washington are bluffing.
That is a problem. The goal of U.S. foreign policy should not be to impose harm upon the American people. Losing access to those important computer chips would impose undue harm to every American, regardless of their financial standing.
Who cares if it also harms China?
Given China’s industrial capacity and its massive, well-educated, technically skilled workforce, eventually China would find it much easier to create their own indigenous chip capabilities while the Americans would be left holding the bag. That’s a terrible strategy!
Whatever Happened to On-Shoring?
Former President Donald J. Trump made it a point during his 2016 presidential campaign to make protectionism and on-shoring, the restoring of America’s gutted manufacturing base, a key theme. When he became president, Trump fought hard to make the United States a competitive manufacturing economy again.
Yet, it was the Democratic Party and Republican Party establishment-types who resisted this plan. Wall Street and Corporate America also despised the plan, as it would have cut into their bottom line.
These forces were so powerful in Washington that, even after the weaknesses highlighted by the COVID-19 showed how woefully dependent the United States is on foreign supply chains, these forces insisted that we continued that reliance.
If Rep. Moulton and the other members of the government are really worried about China’s rise they would recognize that China’s threat is both long-term and primarily geoeconomic.
If the United States can enhance what China calls its Comprehensive National Power (CNP), that is its economic, cultural, political, educational, and diplomatic—on top of its military—relative to that of China, then there will be no need to take the lunatic option of blowing up the world’s primary source of silicon computer chips.
A Longer Term, More Sensible Plan
I realize that this approach is more difficult than the immediate, salutary effects that blasting the TSMC manufacturing facility in Taiwan would have for Americans, should China decide to defy the will of the US-led international order and invade the small island democracy. But American policymakers must recognize the madness of such a program…and the dangers that it would pose to our own society.
It is better instead to invest at least $1 trillion over the next eight years into rebuilding America’s manufacturing base—including our indigenous computer chip production lines—and putting whatever resources behind that mission as possible.
That way we are not beholden to the most extreme outcomes of being totally reliant on the TSMC factory that could be destroyed or taken over by China at any moment, thereby throwing our society into chaos.
Congress must immediately focus on rebuilding the United States now to avert a massive war. The Biden Administration got the Science Act and the CHIPS Act passed. That was nowhere near enough resources committed to this venture, though.
Once America’s CNP is better than China’s, Beijing will be deterred. Right now, they think they’ve got us beat and China won’t stop pressing their perceived advantage, which could lead both them and us to make catastrophic strategic errors. Only a comprehensive expansion of America’s strategic capabilities beyond the hard power realm, such as enhancing our high-tech research and development as well as our manufacturing base would give us the competitive edge Washington is so desperately seeking.
A 19FortyFive Senior Editor, Brandon J. Weichert is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, as well as at American Greatness and the Asia Times. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower (Republic Book Publishers), Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life (May 16), and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy (July 23). Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
