Crimea: Could Ukraine Take It Back? The continued progress of the Ukrainian military effort is unlikely to surprise many observers now more than one year into the war.

Yet, many are also likely to highlight its setbacks, challenges, or limitations.  

Despite the many challenges associated with attacking a much larger Russian Army, some might be inclined to wonder if Ukraine could ultimately take back Crimea.

This would be a monumental development, yet seemingly not beyond the realm of the possible. 

Ukraine’s Forces

Overall, Ukraine’s somewhat unanticipated warzone success has led to some effective counterattacks and an ability to “take back” certain key areas occupied by Russian invaders, however, Ukraine’s military may face some limitations when it comes to fully “holding” newly gained territory. 

Along with critical weapons, the Pentagon and other allies have been sending tactical trucks and other logistical and transportation assets to Ukraine, perhaps with a mind to better enable forward progress or the ability to set up forward operating bases and “hold” new territory with an established logistical supply line.  

In addition to this, however, the Ukrainian forces will likely need more heavy armor to break through and “hold” territory, something which the Pentagon is attempting to accomplish.

After sending a small number of Bradley Fighting Vehicles and highly effective anti-armor weapons, the Pentagon has decided to set up a specific production line to build export variant Abrams main battle tanks for Ukraine. While Ukrainian fighters have already proven quite capable of destroying Russian tanks from dispersed or varied positions of attack.  

Taking Crimea

Destroying tanks, however, is a little different than reclaiming and holding territory as that is a task that likely requires more heavy armor combined arms maneuver.

A single group of armored vehicles, such as Bradleys, Abrams, or German Leopards, for instance, might be able to break through a Russian perimeter, but would likely be challenged to maintain a hold on the territory without more mechanized or heavier armored vehicles. Larger mechanized formations would likely be needed to seize and hold Crimea. 

This heavy armor is on the way to Ukraine, the question is simply one of how long it will take for tanks to arrive in impactful numbers. Will it take several years?

Can the Ukrainians hold up their defenses and make enough gains to stay successful and operational long enough to eventually field a large mechanized force?

It seems entirely possible, given their success thus far, that Ukrainian forces could operate sufficiently for quite some time, and that may be necessary as it may indeed take several years before enough Abrams arrive. The poor morale and lack of combined arms maneuver shown by Russian forces only seem to increase Ukraine’s prospects for longer-term success.

Should Ukraine estimate that it could retake Crimea, it likely would attempt it. 

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Kris Osborn is the Military Affairs Editor of 19FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University