Ukraine has a complex reality it must face: U.S., UK, and EU senior leaders have voiced over the past few days strong support for Ukraine and their widely reported upcoming offensive. Reading some of the off-headline comments they’ve made, however, exposes the growing realization in the West that the hope of Zelensky accomplishing his stated objectives of driving Russia entirely out of Ukraine has a low probability of success.
A change in Western policy, therefore, is urgently needed – before Kyiv suffers more combat losses that are unlikely to alter the fact that the war will most likely end with a negotiated settlement.
Recent Developments in Ukraine War
In just the past few days, a bevy of senior Western political leaders have made strong declarations of support for Ukraine and the embattled country’s looming offensive. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, UK Foreign Secretary James Cleaverly, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg have all issued strongly worded statements of support for Ukraine. The question, however, is whether the West can make good on its claims.
There is growing evidence that for the remainder of 2023, the West in general and the U.S. in particular likely do not have sufficient on-hand stocks of key weapons and ammunition to match what has been provided to Ukraine over the first 14 months of the war. On Tuesday, the United States announced yet another tranche of military support to Ukraine, this time in the form of a $1.2 billion package.
What is key about this promised support is that it was not given under the Presidential Drawdown Authority, but the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. The difference in the two programs is significant and has ominous implications for Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) operations through the rest of this year, especially following the outcome – win, lose, or draw – of the upcoming Ukrainian offensive.
Policy and Timing
The drawdown authority means Biden can order the immediate delivery of existing U.S. weapons and ammunition, meaning they can, in theory, be delivered to the battlefield within weeks. The security assistance initiative, on the other hand, means contracts must be written, publicized, undergo a bidding process, and then defense contracting companies that win bids must produce the ammunition or military gear, sometimes taking years to complete. This means Ukraine will not see the primary benefits of this latest round of U.S. support until at least 2024.
In an interview on May 5 with Euronews, EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell admitted “If I stop supporting Ukraine, certainly the war will finish soon,” because Ukraine would be “unable to defend itself” and would “fall in a matter of days.”
Cleaverly optimistically added that since the war’s start, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have “outperformed expectations.” However, he concluded in a sober word of caution, “We have to be realistic. This is the real world. This is not a Hollywood movie.” And it is here that Western leaders would be wise to consider the ramifications of this accurate statement.
It is clear and understandable that those in the West would be against Russia’s violent invasion of Ukraine and would desire to see Kyiv recover all its territories. If we were writing the script of a movie, that’s exactly how this story would end. But, as the British Foreign Secretary points out with painful accuracy, we have to make policy based on the most accurate, realistic, and sober recognition of ground truth and a lot less on our emotionally-charged preferences.
First, we must understand the enormity of the task facing the UAF on the eve of launching its offensive. As one who has fought in a large-scale offensive tank battle and trained over many years to conduct defensive operations in armored units, I can conclusively state that the defensive is the far less challenging and difficult form of war, and a combined arms offensive is the most difficult and complex.
Ukraine Strategy Evolves
Ukraine has suffered massive casualties over the first 14 months of this war. It is currently staffed with soldiers and leaders who have limited experience in war and only surface-level training in combined arms operations. One must not underestimate the challenge facing the UAF troops in a theater-level offensive that requires tight coordination of every unit over hundreds of kilometers, especially when no soldier, officer, or general in Ukraine has performed such a task of this magnitude.
Second, Russia has been preparing extensive defensive positions for more than half a year almost across the entire 1,000km front. According to some U.S. analysts, the Russians have designed and built an impressive series of defensive belts that would be difficult to breach even for fully-trained Western armies. To succeed, Zelensky’s troops will have to attack this elaborate defense with limited offensive air power, limited air defense, insufficient quantities of artillery shells, and a force that is equipped with a hodge-podge of modern and antiquated armor – staffed by a mix of conscripts with no combat experience and some officers and men with basic training by NATO instructors.
Some Ukrainian leaders are aware of the magnitude of the challenge. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told the Washington Post last week that he was concerned that the “expectation from our counteroffensive campaign is overestimated in the world,” which he fears may lead to “emotional disappointment.” The level of success, he warned, could be as few as “ten kilometers.” What the Defense Minister didn’t address, however, is what would come next.
Even if Ukraine again exceeded Western expectations and captured 50 or 100km of territory, the number of casualties they will have suffered would be high under any scenario, leaving the Ukrainian Armed Forces weaker then than they are today. As described above, it is very unlikely the West could replace lost equipment or provide enough ammunition to sustain the Ukrainians for the rest of this year, and according to the Washington Post, in addition to the 300,000 troops Russia presently has in Ukraine, there are another 200,000 poised just across the border.
Once the Ukrainian offensive has played out – regardless of how successful they may or may not have been – a Russian counterattack would almost certainly follow. Ukraine would then be vulnerable, for many months, to such an attack as they would have even fewer artillery shells, air defense missiles, and troops. As this sober analysis makes plain, these are towering challenges that stand in the way of a victorious and decisive Ukrainian spring offensive.
If that is the case, then the chances of Zelensky ever accomplishing his objectives of forcing Russia out of Ukraine are highly improbable. The most likely outcome is that the war will continue on regardless of this offensive, but over time the conditions will continue tilting in Russia’s direction. Eventually, Kyiv will likely be compelled to seek a negotiated end to the fighting. The West should recognize this probability – now – and begin privately supporting such an outcome with Ukrainian officials. Refusing to take such actions in the hope that Ukraine produces a major battlefield victory could condemn Kyiv to a much worse deal later.
MORE: Why Putin Fears the M1 Abrams Tank
MORE: I Went to War in the Leopard 2 Tank Ukraine Wants
A 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” Follow him @DanielLDavis.
Gary Jacobs
May 11, 2023 at 6:02 pm
LoL, Davis…
You are using a report on Ammo from January. Thankfully we have a network of allies stepping in to help, and with other types of ammo for HIMARS the focus solely on GMLRS is quite misleading. Par for Davis’ course.
On April 12, 2023 South Korea reached an agreement to send the US another 500,000 rounds of 155mm artillery shells.
Last week the EU finally finalized a deal for them to increase their ammo supplies to Ukraine by $1 Billion.
Today the UK announced that they will be supplying Storm Shadow stealth cruise missiles to Ukraine with a range of almost 200 miles.
Furthermore, the US is supplying Ukraine with GLSDB which can be fired from HIMARS and makes the stats in the report you sight incomplete at best, cherry picked and misleading is more your MO though.
Not to mention the fact that PrSM and GLMRS-ER are completing testing and coming online soon, all of which can be fired from HIMARS and M270s. That also makes the focus on the older GMLRS a fraction of the actual picture.
Then you have the fact that Germany’s Rheinmetall has applied for a license to make ammo for HIMARS. That should shorten the restock time significantly.
As for the Maginot Lines Russia has been building in the south… the Ukrainians have been training on combined arms breach maneuvers. They are likely to spend quite a bit of time shaping the battlefield before they try anything in the south, and judging by all the fuel and ammo depots blowing up in Russia and occupied Crimea lately…that’s well underway.
There is a flips side to Davis’ all too predictable [and constantly wrong] doom and gloom.
WHAT IF UKRAINE IS TOO SUCCESSFUL?
A new article published by the Modern War Institute at West Point looks at the possibility that Ukraine’s next action could absolutely blow Russia off the map of Ukraine. It also worries that such an event could result in chaos that the US and other Western allies are unprepared to address.
What if Ukraine ends up routing Russian occupation positions relatively swiftly and effectively, with the Russian military in a hopeless retreat?
Given recent reporting, it is not altogether clear that the United States and its allies are fully prepared for such a contingency, which, although less likely than the alternatives, the chances of it are far from Zero; and if leaders are not prepared, they should start preparing now so as to avoid finding themselves on the back foot in a crisis of significant consequence.
The article lists a number of reasons why Ukraine can outperform the expectations so many like Davis and the troll farm livestock that comment on 1945 have been working to lower.
That includes the 230 new tanks + hundreds more on the way… 1,550 armored vehicles, numerous air defense systems, and uncounted drones provided to Ukraine in the last few months.
The report notes that one thing missing is longer range missiles… but they’re not missing anymore thanks to the UK providing Storm Shadow, and the US providing GLSDB.
Not only does Ukraine have all that new gear, it also has new units trained in combined armed techniques, and new communications gear that can overcome Russian jamming to make larger more complex maneuvers easier to achieve.
IF Ukraine works through or around the defensive lines that Russia has constructed, it could surprise Russian forces that are unprepared to defend the occupied areas in southern and eastern Ukraine.
The report also notes that if there’s one thing Ukraine has done throughout this war it is surprise the world through its “will to fight, its societal resilience, and its leadership.”
Rather than just preparing for a stalled situation that leads to negotiations where Russia gains more territory, the institute suggests that the US also needs to plan for the opposite outcome.
For “the event of a quick and cascading Russian loss.”
FAR more likely is a third option: a middle ground where Ukraine is able to make significant advances this summer, but does not eject the Russians completely for the occupied territories.
Even that outcome will provide enough momentum to keep support for Ukraine going through next summer during the US election.
By next summer, I expect gains by Ukraine, and the US to have reached well over 100 Abrams tanks provided to Ukraine to back fill losses from this summer’s offensive[s].
And by that time the effects of Storm Shadow and GLSDB will have caused havoc among the Russian military on every inch of occupied Ukraine.
Walker
May 11, 2023 at 6:36 pm
Oh, Daniel. Such a sad little boy!
“Ukraine can’t push Russia completely out of Ukraine.”
As if that is the sole criteria of a successful spring offensive. That you say it this way shows your desperation.
I also love how you say how many soldiers Ukraine has lost over the last year but neglect how badly it has also affected Russia.
Let’s be real honest for once, shall we, Daniel? You chose your words so specifically to get at your outcome that is not really supported by the facts. It never has been. Remember how you were so, Bakhmut will be the deciding point? You were just so sure Russia would take the city and surround all the Ukrainian troops within a couple days of your article. And here months later, Russia still hasn’t taken the city completely and surrounding the troops is now impossible.
If a scientist chose his data the way you chose facts, he would lose all respectability. But lucky for you, the Russian trolls here love your dishonesty.
Let me define a good “spring offensive” since you are too dishonest. And I say that because spring is when it will start, but I don’t expect it to be something that ends so quickly. It will be more like the Kherson offensive than the Kharkiv, I think. Meaning it will be a blow by blow, hard hitting casualties on both sides. Vs the quick rout. A successful offensive will cut the land bridge to Crimea and then blow up the real bridge again. Starve Crimea over the winter and by spring Ukraine will have new western fighter jets.
The economy in Russia is about to drop like in the 90s. Russia is burning through cash now. It put up a good fight for a year now. But the strain is now taking its toll. By next year, there won’t be much left of Russia and then Ukraine will be in a position to do what You say is impossible. But it won’t be the Ukrainian military that does this completely. It will be largely because of the sanctions.
So get used to it Davis, I’m going to be laughing so hard at you two years from now. You should retire. You absolutely suck at your job.
The Al U Know
May 11, 2023 at 8:03 pm
If in 2014 Magnitsky II was meant to build forces so that Ukraine could save itself in 2022,
then another treaty will give Ukraine forces to take back lost territories by 2031.
Another 8 years.
Monty must be running the AFU, because, hem and haw, it must be check and double-check for an overwhelming force.
“So we need to wait. We still need a bit more time,” Zelenskyy was quoted as saying. “In terms of equipment, not everything has arrived yet.”
“Certainly, they need more preparation,” Borrell said…
-AP via CP24
…yes, another 8 years, yes.
War is only postponed to the advantage of others. China waiting for Taiwan, the US pressing on the silicon chip supply means this is the precipice of a Pearl Harbour moment brought on by a Roosevelt embargo.
But instead you will have Biden or Trump running things.
China might have preferred to continue to ride its economic climb, wait for its Rods From God and confront the US mid-century with drone swarms. Right the domestic ship. But the US has agency too and is pressing, telling us to prepare for grueome war.
Defeat China as you might. Once, twice. What about climate change…along with the post growth era dawning…whilst feeding a trillion dollar war machine?
Cue the robots.
Did you also leave Russia, China, Brazil to their own devices in their regions during this time? USA?? India grows closer to the Middle Eastern kingdoms even now. South Africa is giving arms.
Then there is the US south. How long before refugees and immigrants constrain the system of social supports that would have been taxed even if the US led West did not give the lower-level jobs to AI and the robots.
AI and robots for the win, I guess if you are the US.
-The Al U Know
PS Not all is doom and gloom, you know. I intend to not be alienated from the new means of production. Lol, with cybernetic enhancements and a brain backed up and augmented by AI.
The Al U Know
May 11, 2023 at 8:50 pm
@Walker
A little too optimistic.
Perhaps the unjustified argument and appeals to your emotion confound any rational dialectic.
“It will be largely because of the sanctions.”
Is it a good start that today even South Africa has flouted these ‘sanctions’?
Also, so then why hype a counter-offensive at all? Feed the meat grinder??
Why not patience, Patton? Where is Monty when you need him??
Ah, here he is I guess:
“So we need to wait. We still need a bit more time,” Zelenskyy was quoted as saying. “In terms of equipment, not everything has arrived yet.”
-AP via CP24 today
Then why not press for peace and prepare for war?? When everything has arrived, yes. War at a later time. This Second Cold War will not be won in a couple of years, let alone 5. The numerous other world stage parties and world-altering environmental situation means it will not end with George Bush ushering the beginning of a ‘New World Order.’
Why now? Do we need Zelensky to be the hero? Before his political career half-lifes to 0? Bidens, or Trumps?
Patience, said yet again.
There will be blood.
“The economy in Russia is about to drop like in the 90s”
What?? Where are you getting this?
What fortune teller’s ball are you looking at?
“Still, Russian GDP fell just 2.1 percent in 2022, and is forecast by even the cautious IMF to grow in 2023—unlike the UK economy, for example.”
-Carnegie Endowment Institute
“Western sanctions isolating Russia will impede the country from progressing economically for a long time, wrote Alexandra Prokopenko”
Hear that? It is about to happen…it is coming…no, it is not.
A loooooong time. Like more than a year, unless this is long for you.
-The Al U Know
Jim
May 11, 2023 at 9:28 pm
Forget about the concept of “Combined Arms Maneuver” warfare.
If Ukraine launches a Big Arrow offensive, it’ll be a basic Strike Force, perhaps effective, but basic… with a basic logistics umbilical cord.
Of course, from a humanitarian perspective Davis is right, but for Washington & Kiev that is of secondary or even tertiary importance.
President Zelensky has announced the offensive is delayed until the army has enough armored fighting vehicles.
Who knows, that could be a feint… the offensive could start anytime.
Washington, Kiev and Moscow have all reaffirmed their war aims and there is no prospect for peace talks at present.
Ukraine supporters can take heart from the stalemated nature of the line of contact… however, attrition has weakened Ukraine’s army… how much remain to be seen.
And the effects of attrition are hard to see until the army is ordered to take actions which because of the hard grind in men & equipment are beyond its capability.
I’ve said it before… it’s true now more than ever… this is a trial settled on the battlefield. (I’ve also stated the best course of action is an immediate Peace Conference.)
Each side is still determined to fight.
The biggest danger is Ukraine’s political leadership would love to drag Nato into the war and make it a General European War.
Why?
Because it’s the only way they can win. Zelensky has already tried to drag Nato directly into the fight several times (but failed and was exposed as lying).
Fortunately, that seems to be the one Red Line Washington & Nato don’t want to cross.
How good is Russia’s surveillance of the logistical buildup areas behind the front line (to spot the offensive forming up before deployment) and how capable is Russia’s logistical & military ability to mount an effective counter attack?
The answer to those two questions will decide how fast the war is over.
Because that’s where the rubber meets the road.
I wish it wasn’t so, but the parties are determined to fight it out to the point of exhaustion… certainly, Kiev is so determined.
.
403Forbidden
May 11, 2023 at 9:52 pm
Once the great ukro offensive gets underway, the hours will start ticking away.
Ticking away to what ?
To the first atomic clouds not demonstrated or seen on battlefields since August 1945.
The US allegedly tested a nuke device in Iraq outside basra city in February 1991 but no mushroom cloud was ever caught by human eyes or recording equipment.
Though seismic monitors in Europe picked up the explosion.
But today, in 2023, the coming ukro mother of all offensives will provide ample opportunity for people to view and record mushroom clouds. In Europe.
While Biden grapples with debt ceiling showdown and border crisis.
Will Biden then use nukes to sway attention to developments in Europe. If he ever does so, then it’s the curtain raiser for ww3.
Steve
May 11, 2023 at 10:08 pm
Yet again, Davis emphasizes every real or imagined challenge for the Ukrainians, while completely ignoring Russia’s demonstrated shortcomings. Russia is a thoroughly corrupt state, where Putin-crony defense contractors have enriched themselves at the expense of the Russian military, producing shoddy or non-existent equipment that is of limited help on the battlefield. Russia’s best troops have been so badly degraded in earlier battles that such units now exist in name only, replaced by poorly trained, poorly equipped, and poorly led, unmotivated conscripts. In recent days, we’ve seen such troops abandoning their positions on the Bakmut flanks – more of that could be coming.
Commentar
May 11, 2023 at 10:58 pm
The coming ukrainian offensive won’t stop russia, not putin.
The offensive could result in the removal of putin from the kremlin and free the russian armed forces from constraints imposed by the stupid putin.
Once the constraints are gone, it will be game over for the neo-nazis and their 2023 great barbarossa offensive.
What will biden do. Right now he already has a lot on his plate.
Will biden go off the edge and unleash US nuclear weapons to save the neo-nazis the moment the russian armed forces pound zelenskiyy and his troops with tactical nukes.
Either way, it’s finito for biden. Likewise finito for the neo-nazi offensive of 2023.
5am
May 11, 2023 at 11:23 pm
holy crap. y’all writing books? gotta love 1945????
despite the hype, if the Ukr offensive is a dud expect calls for a negotiation to grow.
John
May 12, 2023 at 1:22 am
The Vietnamese beat the US. The Mujahedeen and the Taliban beat the Russians and the US. Ukraine can beat the Russians if given enough support over the long haul. So why don’t you turn your attention to convincing the western allies to support Ukraine over the long term. Just as the Russians, Chinese, Saudi Arabians and Pakistanis did for the Vietnamese, Mujahedeen and the Taliban. Those countries didn’t become defeatist in a little over a year of fighting.
UseMeAsCopeButton
May 12, 2023 at 4:59 am
Thank you again, Gary, for bringing a bit of common sense to the Rashka troll farms. One thing is clear: Daniel Davis’ articles have been an excellent indicator of the direction of the war so far, just in the opposite direction of what he says. Yesterday night there were some very small scale attacks by some second-tier Ukrainian units, and Russian channels were already panicking: a landing force in Kherson, Leopards approaching Belgorod, breakthroughs in Horlivka, Avdiivka and Bakhmut –most of it psyops, for sure, but still an important testament to Ukraine’s capacity to shape the information space. This is only foreshadowing what is to come in the next months. The war is unlikely to end this year, but the main phase of hostilities might. Beware of the consequences; prepare for any contingency.
Gaudi Franco
May 12, 2023 at 5:32 am
Modern War Institute at West Point is one of the propaganda units of the U.S. government > Its credibility is rather limited, so are Gary Jaycobs and Walkers unsubstantiated comments which are just feeding the U.S. (Britain) hegemonial drama.
from Russia with love
May 12, 2023 at 6:19 am
@naive Gary Jacobs
you have great analytics! 🙂 it’s a pity that you’re not a general in the Pentagon. the Pentagon is very doubtful of the success of Ukraine.
you are happy to describe and exaggerate the facts that are convenient for you and diligently ignore the inconvenient ones. I like it 🙂 you talk with enthusiasm about 500000 shells that were delivered to Ukraine, but you are not pleased to know that this is enough for 10 days of hostilities and some of these shells will be destroyed by Caliber and Geranium in warehouses, never reaching the front and you try to ignore it. you write about HIMARS, but you are not pleased that the Western press reports that Russia has begun using electronic warfare equipment that jams GPS turning HIMARS from high-precision weapons into conventional low-precision MLRS and you are silent about it. also, you are not pleased that Ukraine has about 4 HIMARS left in working order, and you are also silent about this. you happily write about 230 tanks, but it’s unpleasant for you to ask yourself how many of these 230 tanks will burn in the warehouse from a hit by Geranium and remain in combat readiness until the moment when the counteroffensive begins, if it starts at all. the Ukrainian side is already dispersing the topic that this “counteroffensive” will not be massive. that it will be some small operations. It is explainable. in the event of the failure of such a “small operation” it is easier to hide than the failure of a large offensive. and these failures have already begun. You same very lyubish watch on Ugledar? look. there, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already lost 4 armored groups and about 16 armor units in only 4 attacks. and have had no success. 🙂 but this is an unpleasant fact and Gary Jacobs will ignore it. 🙂
but the most wonderful thing about your analytics is that you ignore the actions of Russia! 🙂 these actions are effective, so they are unpleasant for Gary Jacobs and he will ignore them. 🙂 ignore the constant attacks on Ukrainian weapons depots in the rear, ignore the constant pressure along the entire front line, which requires Ukraine to constantly spend large resources on containing the front line, ignore the fact that since the beginning of the year, Ukraine has only lost territory. everything that is unpleasant Gary Jacobs ignores! 🙂 I like your fictional world with pink ponies just because it’s fictional. 🙂
By the way, how is Zaluzhny? a week has already passed since Ukraine declared that everything is fine with him, but he has not been seen for a week? he used to pose almost every day. when they said that “all are intact” did they mean that all parts of Zaluzhny were assembled? 🙂
@Walker
my second favorite “analyst”! 🙂
“Let me define a good “spring offensive” since you are too dishonest. And I say that because spring is when it will start, but I don’t expect it to be something that ends so quickly.”
dude, you live in Alaska and you have snow all around? wake up! It’s already the middle of May! summer starts in 19 days! 🙂
but you, unlike Gary Jacobs, have already picked up the Ukrainian fairy tale about “many small operations.” 😉
“The economy in Russia is about to drop like in the 90s.”
bankruptcy of banks in the US and the EU, but should the Russian economy collapse? factories are closed in the US and the EU, new production facilities are regularly opened in Russia, but should the Russian economy collapse? by the fact that … so they wrote on the Internet and some kind of factual confirmation is not needed because hamsters believe without facts. “P” – logic! 🙂
Harmen Breedeveld
May 12, 2023 at 6:26 am
Mr Davis, why do you directly contradict your own words from just 6 six months ago? Six months ago, it became clear Russia was going to withdraw from Kherson. Davis then wrote that Russia’s winter offensive could still threaten Ukraine. But if Ukraine were to withstand that, then Putin would be looking at losing the war:
“While Putin will be humiliated by this latest withdrawal, there are reportedly hundreds of thousands of new troops preparing for a major winter offensive. Whether Russian troops left Kherson or retained control at a high cost, the war will likely come down to what happens this winter and spring.
If Russia is able to steamroll Ukrainian troops when they bring their new firepower to bear, Zelensky could one day be forced into a negotiated settlement whether he wants it or not. But if Ukrainian troops, with NATO’s help, are able to absorb the blow and prevent any further loss of territory, it will likely be Putin who is forced to sue for peace, as he will have used all his mobilized power; its doubtful he could survive domestically if he were to try and order an additional mobilization if the first one fails.”
Now it’s six months later, and Putin’s winter offensive has utterly failed. The Russians have not even taken Bakhmut.
Yet now Davis is singing a whole other tune: nothing about Russia’s failed winter offensive. Nope, now it’s about Ukraine Spring Offensive and if THAT fails, then oh la la.
I find it sad when we human beings fail to learn from our earlier mistakes. Davis has often failed to do so.
But this is a worse error by Mr Davis: this is intellectual incoherency. Or to put it more bluntly, this is bad faith arguing.
Mr Davis, 19fortyfive, there should be no space here for bad faith arguments.
Source of the quote: https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/11/russia-abandoning-kherson-is-good-for-ukraine-but-the-war-is-not-over/
David Chang
May 12, 2023 at 8:10 am
God bless people in the world.
Thanks to Mr. Davis for the advice, most of Ukraine people violate Ten Commandments, voted for Zelenskyy to practice socialism policy, and caused the Nazis in Ukraine, and gave socialism Russia a reason to declare war.
Ivy League and Democratic Party also do not obey Ten Commandments, so their wrong national defense policies caused the failure of Vietnam War, Afghan War, and Iraq War. However, they don’t confess sin and repent to God, but continue to implement the same socialism policy as the Communist Party, claiming to liberate all countries in the world.
The wrong Ukrainian War causes the defense weapon shortage of the Republic of China, so now people of Democratic Party are afraid that they make the failure of Ukraine War, and will make the failure of the Republic of China civil war again, just like the Vietnam war and the Afghan war. As we know, early mistakes will lead to future failures. Even if people do the best to save the disadvantage, it is difficult to avoid failure and can only try to make a draw.
But the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps should worry. The Democratic Party doesn’t confess and repent to God, even though the F-35 gets the predetermined engine, they don’t have enough weapons, ammunition, and soldiers to fight back. Neither the western Pacific nor low-Earth orbit, we are not in the full preparation.
Another danger to us is the fact that STRATCOM has warned about. War is always attrition, when socialism party wants to stop war and also wants to win, that is the major danger we have known.
How shall we decrease the national debt but keep enough weapons and ammunition and soldiers?
God bless America.
Mario
May 12, 2023 at 8:40 am
“the Russians have designed and built an impressive series of defensive belts that would be difficult to breach even for fully-trained Western armies”. As usual DD is absoluyelly wrong. No unit of the Russian army would endure a two-hour contact against a NATO brigade.
On the other hand, DD alludes to the supposed lack of training of the UAF. What then to say about Russian? Ukraine has far more battle hardened units than Russia, that much is clear. Thousands of soldiers and officers have been trained in Europe and the United States, both in new equipment and in combat tactics. Russia, meanwhile, was limited to dumping lightly armed civilians in uniform onto the battlefield, with the results we have seen: not even Bahkmut has fallen.
Regarding long-range weapons, does DD think that the Russian military can even detect a Storm Shadow?
In addition, it seems that there are already almost daily attacks on Russian warehouses and logistics resources. It does not seem credible that a third world country with nuclear weapons would be able to replace what was lost. And much less on time. Anyway, I love what dd says because, as we all know, the exact opposite of what it predicts always happens.
Gary Jacobs
May 12, 2023 at 10:04 am
The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced that the Russian Army has pulled back from the northern outskirts of Bakhmut to “more advantageous positions by the Berkhivka Reservoir.”
This means a retreat of several kilometers!
The Ukrainian Army is clearly on the move, and other reports have them advancing from further north west towards the village north of that reservoir…as well as a bit further north towards Soledar.
With Ukraine controlling most of the high ground to the west along this section of the front, they are in advantageous positions to strike from multiple directions with precision fire support.
In the city of Bakhmut itself, Ukraine successfully recaptured the strategically important Industrial College facility.
Lots of breaking information. Much of which is coming from Russians themselves as their Telegram channels are in full panic mode.
The hysteria would be hysterically funny if it wasnt for so many lives at stake.
They already got psyched into believing there was a mass of Ukrainians at Beryslav ready to cross the Dnipro River, Normandy style. That turned out to not be true, but it drew in a bunch of Russian troops, and caused other Russians to flee a swath of the left bank opposite Bryslav.
Especially panicked is Wagner’s boss Prigozhin. Essentially everything he was saying about how weak the flanks are around Bakhmut appears to be true, and Ukraine is taking advantage of it.
IF the Ukrainians take back large chunks of Bakhmut and perhaps even Soledar in a matter of days or even a couple weeks when Russians spent several months and thousands of dead to get this far…it would be a huge morale boost for Ukraine.
And this isnt even the main counter attack.
The Russians are evacuating large amounts of people and equipment [not to mention looting] all along the southern part of Ukraine.
Pictures have emerged of a massive traffic jam of largely “civilian” cars headed east from Mariupol to Russia.
The batch of 80+ Leopard 1 tanks for Ukraine is set to arrive around June 1. I expect Ukraine to continue shaping operations and local counter attacks at least until mid June.
Unless of course they see further opportunity to take advantage of mass chaos and retreat among the Russians.
That would be lovely.
Jim
May 12, 2023 at 10:39 am
Ammo shortages have been reported all through the Spring, even the Washington Post has reported as much… with numerous reports readily available confirming ammo shortages… even individual Ukrainian soldiers telling in videos of ammo shortages.
Yet, a commenter, here, claims ammo shortages were a January thing… rectified since… wrong!
Complete La La land… why make a counter-factual claim?
One commenter stated, “It will be largely because of the sanctions.” In other words, “sanctions are working!”
Again, La La land, magical thinking… and this guy thinks he’s smart… schizophrenic more likely…
Another commenter claims the Russian military procurement system is corrupt and produces shoddy equipment… all the evidence is to the contrary.
Is this the best Ukraine supporters can put out in their efforts @ 5th Generation Warfare… a propaganda war… with every armchair punter invited to lie for the U. S. Regime… how pathetic… being a punk and dupe for the regime.
It’s not working because at the end of the day it’s what HAPPENS ON THE GROUND that counts… propaganda has no role in the trenches… or among the bombs falling from the sky.
Reality is a b#@!ch… isn’t it?
Gary Jacobs
May 12, 2023 at 11:43 am
Jim,
LoL…”Another commenter claims the Russian military procurement system is corrupt and produces shoddy equipment… all the evidence is to the contrary”
Hahahaha, Russia is literally rolling out tanks that are older than I am [47] because they cannot produce nearly enough modern tanks. It is a combination of sanctions and their corrupt system.
As for what is happening on the ground. Wagner has been warning about the lack of ammo and how that will cause the collapse of Russian lines around Bakhmut, And that appears to be exactly what is happening.
See my comment just above your latest for starters. But that only covers the north flank of Bakhmut.
All involved parties more or less agree in reference to the latest developments around Bakhmut:
Russian lines along the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut are crumbling.
In the south of Bakhmut, Prigozhin has admitted Ukraine defeated the 72nd Russian brigade. By most accounts in fact, the 6th and 8th companies of this brigade were completely destroyed.
A significant number of armoured combat vehicles were destroyed, and a significant number of prisoners were captured.
As well, the 3rd Assault Detachment of Wagner PMC suffered heavy losses.
Ukrainian offensive actions were conducted in a strip 3km wide and 2.5km deep south of Bakhmut. All this territory is “completely liberated from the Russian occupying forces.”
But also in the city itself Russians have been losing ground.
More importantly, this also confirms that the Ukrainian supply lines have gotten considerable relief.
It looks like a possible pincer movement to surround Russian forces in Bakhmut. It remains to be seen if Ukraine can make that happen.
At the very least, these losses confirm Prigozhin’s complaints to be genuine, and thus Russia is now in a paradox.
They can send reinforcements to Bakhmut, which keeps them away from other areas where Ukraine may advance, OR hang Wagner out to dry and let a lot of their gains in the Bakhmut Soledar area get reversed in a short period of time.
I will bet on Wagner being left to its own devices considering that the Russian MoD likely prioritizes the south to Melitopol, and Shoigu will need all reserves for even a theoretical Ukrainian offensive there. As well, Shoigu most certainly will not be inclined to help his rival.
Either way, in my opinion, and judging the current situation the Ukrainian determination to continue to defend Bakhmut looks more like the right decision. It’s still early, and they will need to advance A LOT more to confirm this.
As for ammo, Russia needs to produce over 29 million shells per year to satisfy Prigozhin’s demands for Wagner to use 80,000 shells per day – 13 times more than Russia’s pre invasion annual production rate.
Russia is also running low on long range cruise missiles, and a Patriot just shot down a Kinzhal missile that Russia touted as impossible to defeat.
The one thing they do have going for them lately is their own Russian version of JDAM-ER. They have used that effectively against Ukrainian front line units. What Ukraine needs is more Patriots, and SAMP/T to extend their SAM cover far enough that keeps those Russian JDAMs out of range to the front lines…and then medium/long term Ukraine need Western jets with AAMs.
Bottom line: yet again nothing you say stands up to the slightest bit of basic research.
Jim
May 12, 2023 at 12:26 pm
Well, Ukraine is moving. Is it “probing in force” or is it a series of multiple smaller tactical offensives along the front, or the start of something bigger… strategic in nature… perhaps, the add up constitutes a strategic critical mass.
It could be a combination of all of the above.
A high ranking Ukrainian official suggested it would be a “series of events” rather than “one big single event.”
What is happening now on the ground is consistent with a “series of events.”
Game on.
Roger
May 12, 2023 at 1:19 pm
Just as Daniel says that Ukraine will lose again, Ukraine starts winning again. He gets it perfectly wrong every time
TheDon
May 12, 2023 at 1:31 pm
Well, wars not simple and the Spartans shouldn’t have a chance.
It’s hard for Russia to keep up with so many countries supplying Ukraine , Russians crying about deaths, and Ukrainians honoring those who provide the sacrifice for their country.
The Ukrainians will go down in history with the Spartans.
Time will tell but Russian news seems to be turning. Russias hold on its people will weaken as many they rely on have died.
The fall of crimea will result in fall of putin.
JACK
May 12, 2023 at 1:38 pm
when i saw the title of this article….I knew who had written the article
I’m Aaron
May 12, 2023 at 1:55 pm
I’m living in an alternate reality. It’s puzzling to me how any nation will beat a nuclear armed Russia led by a regime led by an individual like Putin (or any replacement). Russia will just escalate to meet its goals. That escalation may result in hundreds of thousands deaths in the Ukraine.
The West has boxed itself into an ‘Emperor’s New Clothes’ denial. A pronouncement each week to keep the illusion alive. Accepting reality is seen as ‘weakness’. There will be no ‘Ukrainian offensive’. The tanks sent are next to useless. Fighter jets even more useless. Next week: more ‘let’s pretend that this will work’.
Roger Joseph Buffington
May 12, 2023 at 2:47 pm
Davis is one of the worst commentators on the internet as regards the Ukraine War, and maybe the worst one in all of creation.
The Russian Army is rotten. Russia’s defense industry is so poor and so corrupt that Russia is reduced to buying third-rate drones from Iran, a third-rate military power. All of the problems that Davis attributes to Ukraine are far worse on the Russian side. Ammunition shortages, losses of weapons, dead troops. The Russian losses are agreed by all to be far worse than those of Ukraine.
Nor is kicking every Russian out of Ukrainian territory the sole standard for determining a successful offensive. Last year Ukraine kicked the Russians completely out of the Kyiv area (northern Ukraine), took back Kharkiv Oblast, and retook Kherson. Those were successful counter-offensives and that was a successful military campaign season for Ukraine.
The only successes Russia had were in the beginning of this conflict, when they got the drop on Ukraine. Since then it has been an unbroken string of Russian defeats, incompetence, and humiliations. Russia’s farcical Bakhmut campaign has set the standard for Pyrric “victories” and was not, in reality, any victory at all.
I have no idea why this site or any site gives Mr. Davis a platform to spew his drivel.
Christophe
May 12, 2023 at 3:04 pm
Datas coming from wherever and used to exaggerate Russia military power and underestimate Ukraine determination and capacities.
Defeatism and fake news at their best. When will Putin give Daniel Davis a Russian passport -and the duty to fight in the Russian army then?
Rick
May 12, 2023 at 3:28 pm
I knew I’d be wasting my time reading Davis’ drivel. Does he work for a Russian propaganda site?
I won’t be fooled into reading another of his articles.
Walker
May 12, 2023 at 4:16 pm
Jim
“Reality is a b***h, isn’t it?” Lol, you just signed your own death certificate.
If Russia is so great, why was it never able to even take Bakhmut? Already Ukraine has taken back months of Russian work in the matter of days. Obviously, you are the one living in la la land.
Jim
May 12, 2023 at 4:31 pm
Gary, when a person is false in one part, they are likely to be false in other parts, as well.
You claimed ammo shortages were a January thing… a thing corrected long ago.
But the Washington Post & the New York Times don’t agree with you… nobody does… because you’re wrong… much like other prior claims you’ve made.
You’re ammo claim is patently false, as I pointed out in a prior comment.
Don’t you get tired of making false claims and getting caught?
Given your false claim about ammo, your credibility is low.
Seems Russia’s equipment is doing just fine… despite your claims to the contrary… but as I said, “Game on.”
James A Denney
May 12, 2023 at 4:39 pm
Sorry loser, your negative garbage won’t work. Ukraine is winning, and will continue to win.
Warthog
May 12, 2023 at 5:17 pm
The question isn’t whether what Ukraine will do with 200-400 tanks and a few hundred armored vehicles.
Ukraine started this war just a little over a year ago, with over 8,000 tanks and armored vehicles.
The question is: Where did those thousands of tanks and vehicles disappear to?
Think aabout it. Take all the time you need.
rokyojoe
May 12, 2023 at 5:29 pm
Russian Forces about to be routed. That is my takeaway from DD’s latest Haiku:
troll-feeder
May 12, 2023 at 5:42 pm
I’m trying to decide which of the following reasons DD writes the same article (Ukraine losing and russia winning) bi-monthly. Here are my ideas:
1. DD articles are actually satire?
2. DD has placed a bet on russia winning with drinking buddies?
3. DD is a russian agent?
4. DD’s ridiculous articles draw lots of clicks and he gets a piece of the revenue?
5. Other?
What do you think? My little secret is I actually don’t read his articles any more I just come for the comments ????????
Warthog
May 12, 2023 at 5:48 pm
The question isn’t what Ukraine will do with 200-400 tanks and a few hundred armored vehicles.
Ukraine started this war just over a year ago with over EIGHT THOUSAND tanks / armored vehicles.
The question is: Where did Ukraine’s 8,000 tanks and armored vehicles disappear to?
Think about it. Take all the time you need.
Gary Jacobs
May 12, 2023 at 7:48 pm
Jim,
LoL… you are now putting words in my mouth.
You are just as wrong as usual.
I never said nor implied “corrected long ago”.
I specifically said ‘misleading’.
I have repeatedly stated that the US and Allied industrial might has been awakened, and while it may take some time to ramp up our own production to where it needs to be long term…we have a network of allies who are helping with interim solutions while the US and other allies ramp up our own production.
As noted with South Korea supplying 500,000 155mm shells.
And alternate munitions to fire from HIMARS other than GMLRS. Speaking of which, we have given Ukraine Zero ATACMS, which are also fired from HIMARS and M270s.
The notion that the US should be in some kind of panic mode over what we have given Ukraine is false, and the information Davis uses is cherry picked to fit his fake narrative. Which you are clearly on board with hook line and sinker.
Let’s go a step further, IF the US runs critically low on things like Javelin, Israel’s Spike family of ATGMs is a perfect stand in until we do get production back to where it needs to be.
In 2021 the US Army began test firing Israeli Spike-SR at Fort Benning, GA
The US has also been testing the air launched NLOS version of Spike on the Apache Helicopter – which Israel already has operational. Spike NLOS has 4x the range of Hellfire.
And speaking of Israel, Elbit Systems makes 3 different types of 155mm shells should the US ever need to place an order.
As well, considering how often you denigrate the Washington Post, among others…the idea you are trying to use them now to pretend that their reporting supercede my assesment makes me laugh.
I have been running circles around the both of those outlets for years. Although on occasion they do some halfway decent reporting. The difference being my knowledge base far exceeds yours as well, and when combined with my ability to do actual critical thinking…I have a much better ability to know which of their articles are better than others.
The extra irony of you trotting them out on a Daniel Davis article goes back to Davis trying to use a WaPo article early in the Kherson offensive about some extremely tough fighting…with Davis using that article to proclaim that the Kherson offensive was already a failure.
That didnt age well.
Neither do most of your posts. Generally D.O.A.
An incident that happened today is a perfect window into what’s happening on the Putin apologist side you’re on.
Storm Shadow appears to have made a dramatic debut striking 100km deep behind the lines at targets in Luhansk City.
With the background sounds of ammunition cooking off, Russian MP Vodolatsky gave an interview – on camera – in front of one of the buildings struck by Storm Shadow – ranting about how Ukrainian troops damaged “social facilities” spoiling the “LNR independence day” in the “peaceful city”.
It’s some serious Baghdad Bob BS, and Par for Putin’s course.
And Jim…with your posts today pretending how great Russia’s military industry is, among other fantasies…you are proving yet again that you fit right in with Putin and Vodolatsky.
David Chang
May 12, 2023 at 8:57 pm
God bless people in the world.
Most Ukraine people do not obey ten commandments, but believe socialism, some people sell foreign aid, so it’s dangerous to supply weapons to Ukraine.
During the first half of World War II, the Democratic Party handed over some weapons to the Republic of China, many of which were scrapped or confiscated from Europe battlefield, the American people had testified in hearing. At that time, most people in the Republic of China, like the people in Ukraine, do not obey Ten Commandments but believe socialism and evolution, so they surrendered to the Communist Party.
During the war in Afghan, most people in Afghan do not obey Ten Commandments and helped the Taliban to occupy Afghan and implement socialism policy, so the Taliban obtained many weapons made in the United States.
Another danger is that with the science research and commercial cooperation between the Ivy League, Democratic Parties and Communist Party ten years ago, Democratic parties are making the next war for Karl Marx and Adolf Hitler.
But Republican Party is helping Democratic Party to do it, so Republican Party should confess and repent to God, and think about Democratic Parties making the Socialism world of Karl Marx and Adolf Hitler with the policies of constitution, education, currency, and military, the world they dream of is called modernization, such as modern warfare.
God bless America.
Jim
May 13, 2023 at 12:36 am
Gary stated, “You [Davis] are using a report on Ammo from January. Thankfully we have a network of allies stepping in to help, and with other types of ammo for HIMARS the focus solely on GMLRS is quite misleading. Par for Davis’ course.”
Allies have said they’d step up.
But what counts is in the field.
Saying they’d step up is a lot different from delivering.
I’ll stand on the Washington Post & New York Times report, as admissions against interest… Ukraine’s army has been having ammo shortages all spring.
Maybe the allies will come through… but I’ll wat and see… not assume like you do.
There is confusion… FOG of WAR. President Zelensky gave an interview to the BBC where he said Ukraine was ready, but needed more weapons before initiating an offensive.
As I stated above that could be a feint, and there are reports of a tactical offensive.
1,000 men & forty tanks… unknown if the men are in armored fighting vehicles… I would think they would be… if they aren’t, well, that might explain the reports from the battle.
Reports claim the offensive was repulsed with high casualties… conflicting reports… one claiming 50% casualties… an other claiming higher casualties.
I can’t verify the reports, one way or the other.
But 50% casualties can’t be sustained… period.
1,000 men & forty tanks is more than a probing force.
There are conflicting reports regarding the sustained nature of the events in the last 24 hours.
Some are claiming it’s not being sustained into an overall movement… perhaps, the fog of war will lift and more definite conclusions can be made about the last 24 hours.
Gary, it doesn’t matter what you and I say, one way or the other… it’s what the Ukrainians & Russians do on the battlefield.
Game on.
dave
May 13, 2023 at 1:40 am
I`ll say it again Ukraine lost on the first day!They`re running out of men, and ammo. The guys fighting now have been grabbed off the streets, and have little training. All these NATO tanks are arriving at a future date after the conflict will be over. Ukraine has been said to have lost 300,000 soldiers.Anybody with any credibility has said they did not shoot down a Kinzhal missile. General Zalushny, and Syrskey are missing.Not only are the russians jamming the guidance systems on Himars they are doing it to the detonators on artillery shells, and drones.
June
May 13, 2023 at 4:53 am
Mr Davis has talked about his nonsense since the beginning of the war. There are growing signs that Russian strength and military production are now depleted. On the other hand, Western countries have started the mass production of weapons. Russia has already lost a fairly large part of military equipment and uses 80-year-old tanks. Unfortunately, Javelin is too expensive to use for these old junks. For those who can read the trend of this war, it is clear that Russia cannot win this war.
Roger Russell
May 13, 2023 at 11:30 am
The author seems to want Ukraine to surrender and give up. Backmut still stands in spite of all Russia can throw at them, and their tanks are a joke because they have no ability to escalate and do more. Russia wants to destroy Ukraine and to commit genocide, what does the author say about the kidnapped Ukrainians shipped deep within Russia for work camps and children stolen and passed out in Russia?
Rahu
May 13, 2023 at 12:03 pm
The first casualty of war is the truth.
Donald Link
May 13, 2023 at 1:26 pm
A lot depends on the definition of victory. The Afghanis won against Britain and Russia but did them little long term benefit. Ukrainians are in a better position to both stop Russia and retain a national identity after the war. The cost would be high but if the EU steps up during the rebuilding process, it would be possible. Remember that Russia won the Eastern Front of WW II by using the army as cannon fodder for the salvation of Mother Russia. There is no such national stake in this war and few in the regular army are willing to die for Putin’s ego.
Paul
May 13, 2023 at 1:29 pm
@Jim
You said about the Ukrainian attack with 1000 soldiers and 40 tanks:
“Reports claim the offensive was repulsed with high casualties… conflicting reports… one claiming 50% casualties… an other claiming higher casualties.”
Well, that’s a bit strange, what we in the west hear is that it was more or less a rout, the Russians fled while taking heavy casualties. Even many Russian sources seem to confirm this, Yevgeny Prigozhin among them.
I’m curious what’s your source for 50% or higher Ukrainian casualties.
John Wayne
May 13, 2023 at 1:55 pm
I’m with “I’m Aaron”.
There is no universe where Putin or his replacement(s) “loses” this war.
The current tyrants in the Kremlin have access to weapons that allow them to avoid full defeat, and more likely have a form of “victory”.
If there is a universe where NATO plans to start a MAD WWIII over a tactical use of Russian WMDs, lets pray we are not in it.
Sofronie the Monk
May 13, 2023 at 9:27 pm
Hey, Russian guys, rumor has it that yet ANOTHER of the invincible Su-35s has been turned into a plough. You should really train your pilots to stop smoking…
Also, when are the superinvincible Su-57s coming? I’m curious which model makes a bigger crater on “landing”.
Jim
May 13, 2023 at 9:44 pm
Paul, What you hear from Western Corporate media and various sub-sources… are one thing… but that isn’t necessarily the truth.
If what you claim is accurate… I’d think the Ukrainians would be trying to capitalize on the “rout” as you claim it.
But there seems to be a lack of evidence.
Or should I say conflicting claims with little evidence to back up either side.
But consider this: a 1,000 men with an indeterminate number of “armored fighting vehicles” and forty tanks can only go so far… remember, longer than a “day’s march” and they have to have a logistical support line.
Likely, an incursion at that tactical level doesn’t have the capability to go very far.
My characterization from the various sources’ reports… after 24 hours… this is not the BIG OFFENSIVE.
Rather, it’s focused on Bakhmut… this 1,000 man force was directed @ Soledar, North West from Bakhmut.
The Ukrainians were attempting to “break up” one of the two “claws” closing on Bakhmut (encirclement).
Whatever really happened, you would know it was successful… if, somehow, Bakhmut avoids falling to the Russians… the Ukrainians are holding on by their teeth in Bakhmut.
You wonder if counter-attacks @ this point… around Bakhmut… are about saving Bakhmut… or something else… political morale… for troops & civilians.
But the “bleeding” (defending Bakhmut to the bitter end) may have resulted in the necessity of delaying the BIG ONE… everybody is waiting for.
Paul, there is “fog of war” and conflicting reports because both sides lie… if it will benefit them, they lie.
The dust will settle… the fog will dissipate… and a more clear picture will become apparent.
In War, conflicting reports are as common as “talking @ the water cooler” at work… and claims of this or that is as “ducks taking to water.”
Best you be careful what you believe.
Unless you’re a shill for one side or the other, then, for you, nothing but the “narrative” matters.
There are lots of people who want reality… not narrative… but that’s what corporate media is good at… spinning a narrative with little attachment to the truth… subservient to the narrative.
Where are you?
dave
May 14, 2023 at 1:10 am
A lot of suckers drinking the western media Koolaide.Russia`s running out of shells again,LOL! Meanwhile USA needs new plants to make more munitions,LOL! That takes years.The Russian goal is to demilitarise, and deNAZIFY Ukraine. Backmut has been the perfect place! Pretty sad state of affairs when you have scumbags who paid someone off so they don`t have to go to war. Your job is to drive around Ukraine, and basically kidnap any man ages 16 to 60 off the street. Tons of videos of it. That`s who is now fighting for Ukraine!
Paul
May 14, 2023 at 10:41 am
@Jim
A lot of words, and I’ll be happy to reply, but first please, you did not answer my question.
What is your source for this:
“Reports claim the offensive was repulsed with high casualties… conflicting reports… one claiming 50% casualties… an other claiming higher casualties.”
David Laney
May 14, 2023 at 10:56 am
The main problem with every article of this type is that Putin will never keep any agreement he makes. Hence a negotiated peace is inevitably worthless.
Jim
May 14, 2023 at 12:49 pm
Paul, various sources, as for the 50% figure, a British source, relying on Russians sources.
That’s why I stated openly in my original comment I couldn’t verify the report one way or the other.
See how that works?
But I did follow up by identifying where this thousand man force was attacking towards… soledar… although, with more research I found the actual objective is a hill overlooking the last road Ukraine uses for resupply of Bakhmut… the Russians were occupying it to shutoff the road… the Ukrainians have apparently taken it back successfully… for now.
However, the road is still a “crap shoot” with Russia having fire control over the road… so, it’s back to where things were before: Ukraine can gamble on Russia having a “leaky” control… some make it… others don’t… enough make it through to take the risk.
Given, that attacking forces often have more losses than defenders, Ukrainian casualties are likely to be significant… a percentage? I can’t be that precise based on my own knowledge.
If that’s not sufficient for you… fine, believe whatever you want… that’s your prerogative.
Just know relying on Corporate Mainstream Media/News… is relying on a “narrative factory”… which I’m skeptical about…
Reasonable skepticism, one way or the other… but be open to follow the evidence where it leads.
That’s the best way I know to get an accurate picture of what’s happening, not just what somebody wants me to believe.
Jim
May 14, 2023 at 2:31 pm
I stand corrected, Ukrainian video shows Russians running away, some without weapons… a rout… as Paul claimed.
Andrew P
May 14, 2023 at 10:20 pm
Despite their numbers, the Russians have proven themselves to be so incredibly bad at war, that I have a hard time believing the Russians can win – except by using nukes – and even then they might not win. But a successful Ukrainian offensive might be the thing that induces Russia to bring out the nukes, especially if Ukraine concentrates its forces in a way that makes nukes worthwhile on the battlefield.
Neil Ross
May 15, 2023 at 10:34 am
The art of negotiation is to ensure that neither side feels that they have lost more than they have won. So from that perspective, Davis will be correct in the end with his predictions, because it is highly probable that Russia will not lose this war. Russia will claim victory to having at least secured the water supply for Crimea ($$) and the security of its fleet in Sevastopol along with an independence of sorts for the DNR/LNR. The agreement will be structured in a way that Ukraine can also claim victory and long term security and funding from multiple sources (maybe even Russia) for rebuilding.
It’ll just take longer than Davis first thought to reach this inevitable outcome.
As far as multiple readers are claiming that Russia would not abide by any peace agreement, would anyone like to provide historical evidence (besides the Minsk agreement, which is debatable) to the contrary that Russia can’t be ‘trusted’to abide by any peace treaty?
Jim
May 15, 2023 at 11:37 am
Mr. Ross, the people who claim Russia wouldn’t abide by their agreements… make this assertion in part to justify their own continued support for the war.
They have no interest in Peace… just war & victory.
Even though the U. S. hasn’t had a “victory” in a long time.
And, this is also in part a projection of their own disdain for diplomatic agreements… all they believe in is military and diplomatic bullying.
Diplomacy designed to promote Peace & Prosperity via cooperative, mutually beneficial policies is a concept alien to them that they reject or look on with suspicion… they see the world as a “Zero-Sum” game where someone wins and someone loses.
They don’t believe in “win-win” outcomes.
They certainly aren’t creative… every problem is a nail and all they have is a hammer.
That’s why U. S. foreign policy has bit a dead end.
The military and bullying approach has left the U. S. isolated, except for Europe which is mired in Stockholm Syndrome.
Neil Ross
May 15, 2023 at 4:10 pm
Historically the U.S. has been a very unreliable international partner. It has signed dozens of international treaties without ever intending to ratify them. And they have broken many treaties that have been ratified. I am thinking of the hundreds of broken treaties with the indigenous tribes of North America, the Trans Pacific Partnership and they bullied Canada on a threat of ending the North American Free Trade Agreement. Canada suffers almost annual violations by the U.S. of the soft wood lumber agreement.
I’m still waiting for one of the commenters to state why Russia should be considered unreliable when it comes to signing a future negotiated peace deal over Ukraine (and again, we are not debating which country actually broke the Minsk agreement).
Neil Ross
May 16, 2023 at 8:25 am
Not surprised there are no responses to my question. Typically Americans will avoid questions that address their own country’s hypocrisy. At least Lavrov usually addresses the issue, even if his replies can at times be laughable.
Tmartin
May 17, 2023 at 9:25 pm
Surely there is a war game model that indicates the timeframe when the USA and Nato become incapable of supplying any more munitions to Ukraine without completely depleting their own defense stocks . It’s an interesting method of disarmament…give Ukraine whatever it wants so Russia can use it for target practice – this despite British Intelligence assuring everyone that Russia run out of missiles in 2022, leaving one wondering how did Kiev shoot down all those hypersonic ones if Russia doesn’t have any more to shoot. Liar’s poker withhumans as chips