Just when it appeared things couldn’t get more crazy in the Russia-Ukraine war, when things were turning in Moscow’s favor on the frontlines with the blunting of Ukraine’s long-promised offensive, the most successful military leader in Russia, Yevgeny Prigozhin, threatens to drive 25,000 Wagner troops to Moscow on a “march for justice” against the Minister of Defense.
As of this writing, the situation is very tense, with Prigozhin’s Wagner PMC (professional military company) in control of the Russian city of Rostov and on the M4 highway leading to Moscow, at last report about 340km from the capital. Putin, in a national address this morning, called Prigozhin’s actions an act of “betrayal”, urged the Wagner troops not to participate in an armed rebellion, and termed the action as a “deadly threat” to Russia, going so far as to compare the danger to the 1917 revolution that led to the “collapse of the state.”
Prigozhin has been an enigma for Putin for months. He and his Wagner professional military company (PMC) fighters have been, without exception, the most skilled and successful fighting force for Russia in the war. They helped or directly led operations to take Mariupol, Popasna, Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Soledar, and finally Bakhmut. Wagner has not failed to take any objective given it since the war started. Yet Prigozhin has also been the biggest thorn in Putin’s side.
Last February, Prigozhin took his complaints about military support from the Kremlin public. He claimed that the “chief of the general staff (Gen. Valery Gerasimov) and the defense minister (Sergei Shoigu) are giving orders right and left, not just not to give Wagner PMC [private military company] ammunition but not to help it with air transport.” In early May, however, Prigozhin exploded in an unprecedented way, blasting Kremlin leaders of continuing to withhold ammunition leading directly to the deaths of his men.
In a grizzly video, Prigozhin posed with the corpses of dozens of his men and screamed into the camera “Shoigu! Gerasimov! Where is the… ammunition?… They came here as volunteers and die for you to fatten yourselves in your mahogany offices.”
As was the case after the February outburst, the Kremlin claimed they were supplying ammunition yet took no disciplinary actions against Prigozhin. About two weeks later, Wagner officially captured Bakhmut after a nine-month siege, and Putin could do nothing but congratulate Wagner. Prigozhin apparently felt bulletproof at that point and believed he was free to do or say anything. In all likelihood, Putin, Garasimov, and Shoigu felt their hands were tied with Prigozhin owing to his unique success on the battlefield.
No other unit in the Russian Armed Forces has come close to achieving the level of success as Wagner has. Further, Wagner does not operate like the Russian military does, eliminating much of the bureaucracy that plagues most large armies, and creating a close-knit kinship among the fighters. Those fighters have, for years, been perhaps more loyal to Prigozhin than to Russia itself. The Kremlin leadership has no doubt desired to shut Prigozhin down, but they likely calculated they could not risk losing their most effective fighting force by arresting its leader. They are certainly regretting that decision now.
On Friday morning Prigozhin went on a rant accusing the Russian government of lying to its people about the reasons for the start of the war, claiming Ukraine had not been about to attack the Russian-speakers in the Donbas. That escalated to then to a claim that Russian forces had attacked and killed some Wagner troops, prompting Prigozhin to claim he was going to take 25,000 troops to Moscow to retaliate. Putin had apparently – belatedly – had enough, and the Russian FSB formally accused Prigozhin of threatening an armed rebellion and issued an arrest warrant.
In the early morning hours of Saturday, security was stepped up in Moscow, as armed vehicles were seen on civilian streets. The biggest potential flashpoint, however, came in Rostov, where a Russian military district headquarters was located. Wagner troops entered the city about daybreak and took up positions in the center of the city, and allegedly occupied the military headquarters and the airfield. Prigozhin then made a video repeating his claim that he would go to Moscow to bring Garasimov and Shoigu to “justice.”
Earlier this morning, Prigozhin claimed his officers were negotiating the situation with Russian officials, Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseev and Col. Gen. (and Deputy Defense Minister) Yunus-Bek Yevkurov. No breakthroughs have been reported and the situation is tense and volatile. Any accident or miscalculation on anyone’s part could result in violence leading to potential civil war among Russian forces inside their own country. Putin made clear in his remarks that he will not let the nation be split, with the clear implication being that if things don’t get settled soon, Putin will use force to destroy what he views as an existential threat.
The leaders in Kyiv no doubt are thrilled at this development, as their offensive has been off to a painfully difficult start, and any action that can harm the morale of the Russian army and potentially split their enemy is welcomed. There is little risk – at this point – that Prigozhin’s actions could spark any genuine rebellion within Russia against the regime, so for now there doesn’t appear to be an imminent threat to Putin’s rule, as there have been no widespread support for Wagner. Given that Russia has the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world, any instability in Moscow is a concern for the United States. For now, all we can do is monitor this situation to see how it plays out.
About the Author
A 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” Follow him @DanielLDavis.
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