Ukraine’s long-anticipated spring counteroffensive was never going to be a “blitzkrieg” that pushed back Russian forces in mere days. Though Western-supplied military hardware, notably main battle tanks – notably the German-made Leopard 2 – were presented by the media as super weapons, Kyiv’s forces are still facing an invader that had weeks, and even months to dig in.
Offensive operations can take time. A lot of time.
The U.S.-led coalition invasion of Iraq in the spring of 2003 lasted one month, one week and four days, and the scales were always tipped in the coalition’s favor. Ukraine has a smaller fighting force than Russia and arguably fared far better at fending off the Kremlin’s troops in the initial invasion in the late winter of 2022 than most military analysts expected. The fact that Kyiv wasn’t reached was nothing short of astonishing.
A quick Ukrainian victory would have been a true miracle, yet progress is being made – albeit, it is slow going, as Russia has sought to slow the liberation by fortifying its defensive positions.
“Intense fighting continues in sectors of southern Ukraine. However, over recent weeks, Russia has continued to expend significant effort building defensive lines deep in rear areas, especially on the approaches to occupied Crimea,” the British Ministry of Defence announced via its latest intelligence update on Wednesday.
“These elaborate defences highlight the Russian command’s assessment that Ukrainian forces are capable of directly assaulting Crimea,” the MoD added. “Russia continues to see maintaining control of the peninsula as a top political priority.”
The Crimean Prize
Both sides could view Crimea as a key to any victory. The Kremlin has controlled the peninsula since 2014, but Kyiv has vowed to bring it back to Ukrainian rule.
“By returning Crimea, we will restore peace,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on the first anniversary of all-out war in the country in February, per Newsweek. “This is our land. Our people. Our history. We will return the Ukrainian flag to every corner of Ukraine.”
However, that could be simply unacceptable to Russian President Vladimir Putin, as the loss of the peninsula could threaten his own position, warned some experts. As a result, the heaviest fighting may be yet to come – and what may be seen as the ultimate prize for both Kyiv and Moscow is likely to face significant destruction, along with the likely deaths of thousands.
Ukraine on the March
On Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted his nation’s recent successes, even as the progress has been slow going since the Ukrainian Army launched its counteroffensive earlier this month.
“At this time, our soldiers in the south and east are actively destroying the enemy, physically cleansing Ukraine,” Zelenskiy said in his nightly video message. “A defense against terror means destroying terrorists. And it is a guarantee that the state of evil will never have the opportunity to bring evil to Ukraine.”
Ukrainian forces are now continuing their drive to the occupied cities of Melitopol and Berdyansk in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine – which has largely been under Russian control since the early days of the conflict. In the past week, Kyiv has claimed that it liberated eight settlements in the region as well as in the Donetsk region. Both areas have been annexed by Moscow, but are not recognized by the international community.
“They (the Ukrainian military) had partial success over the past day, they have consolidated at the boundaries that were reached and they have evened up the front line,” Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said on Wednesday.
Russia Mounting Its Own Offensive in the East
Even as Russia has spent months fortifying its defensive positions, it remains true that it has suffered significant losses on the battlefield. The Kremlin has resorted to deploying Cold War-era tanks, including the T-62, to the front lines to bolster its forces.
It was also reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Tuesday that Russia has conducted multiple “unsuccessful offensive operations” of its own near the Luhansk city of Kreminna this week.
At issue could be the caliber of the forces.
Moscow is now reportedly employing so-called “Storm-Z” assault units that are composed of former prisoners to conduct what has been described as “highly attritional assaults.” Such attacks, known historically as “forlorn hope” and involving “cannon fodder,” could speak of desperation on Russia’s part.
“The recent commitment of ‘Storm-Z’ units to the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast frontline likely explains the increased number of attacks reported near Kreminna over the previous few days, as it appears that Russian forces have committed a relatively large quantity of low-quality forces to frontal infantry assaults,” ISW said.
Both sides continue to be looking to make a breakthrough, but the progress is likely to continue to be slow going as the fighting is set to enter its seventeenth month.
Author Experience and Expertise: A Senior Editor for 19FortyFive, Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu.
From 19FortyFive
Footage Shows World War I Guns Being Used in Ukraine
‘Vacuum Bombs Destroyed’: Ukraine Footage Shows Putin’s Thermobaric Rockets Destroyed
BOOM! Ukraine Video Shows Precision Strike on Russian Air-Defense System
