The fighting in Ukraine is exacting a very heavy price on the Russian military. In more than 17 months of combat, the Russian forces have lost more than 200,000 men killed, wounded, or captured.
In June, the Russian military lost about 20,000 men, making it the fourth deadliest month for the Kremlin.
With the Ukrainian counteroffensive in full swing, July is expected to be another bloody month for the invading Russian forces.
A Bloody Defense for Ukraine
Kyiv launched its long-anticipated counteroffensive in the very first days of June. The Ukrainian military played it cleverly and used mechanized forces to probe and stretch the Russian defenses to find any weak points.
The Russian forces have been defending skillfully, conceding territory but after strong resistance. However, the Russian military’s defense has been costly. In June, the Russian military lost about 20,000 men, making it the fourth deadliest month for the Kremlin.
But besides men, the Russian forces have lost a large number of heavy weapon systems. In the 30 days of June, the Ukrainians claimed to have destroyed 653 artillery pieces, 385 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, and 327 main battle tanks, among other weapon systems.
Ups and Downs
Russian casualties started taking off around November in Ukraine. Around that time, the now mutinous Wagner Group private military company assumed a larger role in the assault on Bakhmut.
Using thousands of convicts in human wave attacks against the Ukrainian garrison, Wagner Group skyrocketed the Russian casualty figures. November ended with about 16,400 casualties for the Russian forces.
December saw a renewed effort by the Russian forces to capture Bakhmut, which cost slightly more than the previous month, with a total of approximately 16,500 killed, wounded, or captured Russian troops.
The new year started poorly for a Russian military that was searching for an operational breakthrough. In January, the Russian Ministry of Defense launched a large-scale offensive operation in the Donbas with the main goal of capturing Bakhmut. But the month ended without any major successes and with about 20,200 Russian troops killed, wounded, or captured, making it the deadliest month of the war at the point.
In February, the Russian forces kept up their large-scale offensive, pushing hard in the Donbas and eastern Ukraine. However, despite the effort, the Russian forces again failed to achieve anything major, losing around 21,500 men.
In March, the Russian offensive culminated with approximately 24,100 casualties for a war-time high but still without any successes.
In the next two months, the Russian forces kept up with their offensive in the Donbas and their attempt to capture Bakhmut but at a reduced intensity. Still, in April and May, the Russian forces respectively lost approximately 16,500 and 17,000 men killed, wounded, or captured.
By now, the Russian Ministry of Defense has largely expended the 300,000 reservists it mobilized back in the fall. And with no Wagner Group mercenaries to do the dirty fighting anymore, the Kremlin will have a hard time sustaining a large number of losses without suffering major operational setbacks.
A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
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