Former President Donald Trump is dominating the GOP primary polls. In a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, Trump holds 47 percent of support. The next closest candidate? Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with just 19 percent of support.
Clearly, the race is Trump’s to lose.
Similarly, President Joe Biden is dominating the Democratic primary, suggesting that 2024 will be a rematch of 2020.
The GOP field
At present, no one comes close to matching Trump with respect to GOP support. The strongest challenger, DeSantis, has faded considerably; last fall, DeSantis was leading Trump in the polls. It’s hard to imagine now, but DeSantis was comfortably ahead of the former president, especially in the weeks following the 2022 elections when DeSantis won big in Florida, while Trump’s candidates bombed across the board. DeSantis looked poised to overtake the party.
He was trending nationally. Trump was under investigation in multiple states, and at the federal level. It looked like the GOP was finally ready to move on from their beleaguered demagogue. Obviously, that view was shortsighted, an underestimation of how passionately the GOP base identifies with Trump. Today, Trump’s 47 percent support far outpaces DeSantis or anyone else.
“The rest of the Republican field remains well behind the two front-runners, with Vivek Ramaswamy, a former biotechnology executive, at 9% in the poll, followed by former Vice President Mike Pence who had 7% support,” Reuters reported.
The Democratic Party Primary
Biden is going to be his party’s nominee despite the protests of constituents eager for someone under the age of 80. Biden has a bigger lead on his respective field than Trump; Biden commands 63% of Democrats’ support. The number two challenger, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., holds just 15% of support. So, expect Biden to waltz towards the nomination, as most incumbents with remaining eligibility do.
Despite dominating the field, voters are not necessarily enthusiastic about Biden. The incumbent is the oldest president ever – and if he wins a second term, he’ll be in office through his 86th birthday. Naturally, many voters are concerned about whether Biden has the longevity or stamina for a second term. Reportedly, Biden is already limiting his work week in an effort to preserve his finite energy. He’s visibly less articulate than he used to be. He stumbles around. People have trouble believing that he’s going to be able to perform as president six years from now as he is clearly already sundowning.
The General Election
While neither the GOP primary, nor the Democratic primary, is expected to be especially tight, the general election may well be.
“The Reuters/Ipsos poll, which surveyed 4,414 adults nationwide online, showed a tight race in the November 2024 general election should Trump face Democratic U.S. President Joe Biden, who is seeking reelection and is not expected to face serious competition for his party’s nomination,” Reuters reported.
According to the poll, Biden barely edged out Trump, 37% to 35%, with neither candidate attracting much support from voters outside of the candidate’s respective party. That makes sense. The political climate is uniquely partisan. And both Biden and Trump are divisive figures. “Just 31% of independents had a favorable opinion of Trump and 32% thought as much about Biden,” Reuters reported.
The poll didn’t consider the prospect of a No Labels third party candidate (Joe Manchin?), who threatened to offer a third candidate in the event that Biden and Trump were the big party nominees.
Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor and opinion writer at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.
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