The Russian invasion of Ukraine reshaped the geopolitical map of Europe. Moscow’s outright and unchecked aggression against its neighbor brought the specter of nation-state war to the forefront.
In response to the invasion, Sweden and Finland shed their cloak of neutrality and applied to join NATO. But more than a year after the start of the membership application, Sweden is still waiting to join the transatlantic alliance.
The reason? Turkey.
There’s Sweden too
Finland and Sweden launched a joint membership bid to NATO. The outright aggression of Russian President Vladimir Putin pushed the two countries to abandon centuries of neutrality and apply to join the transatlantic alliance.
Helsinki shares a turbulent past with its bigger neighbor. In November 1939, just three months after the breakout of World War Two, the Soviet Union invaded Finland in what seemed a quick campaign. The Winter War ended up lasting three months and resulted in a humiliating “victory” for the Russians, who lost hundreds of thousands of troops and heavy weapon systems in exchange for small territorial gains. But the end of the war saw the Soviet Union occupying large chunks of Finland.
Although Sweden doesn’t share the same animosity with Russia, Stockholm has had its tensions with Moscow.
Sweden would add important capabilities to NATO and enhance its overall deterrence. Crucially, with Finland and Sweden, NATO’s arctic warfare capabilities are getting much better.
But all NATO members must approve any new membership bids. As such, for the past several months, Turkey has been blocking Sweden’s membership because of bilateral tensions. There has been hope that after Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s recent re-election, he will give Stockholm the green light, and the Scandinavian country will join NATO and further increase the military capabilities and deterrence of the transatlantic alliance.
But more than a month after the Turkish elections, there is still no white smoke coming out of Ankara.
Sweden, Turkey, NATO, and the Next Steps
The saga of Sweden’s membership bid to NATO is getting a few more chapters this and next week.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson is set to visit Washington, D.C., and meet with President Biden on Wednesday, July 5. The meeting between the two leaders is expected to reaffirm the importance of Sweden to the transatlantic alliance and the need to fast-track Stockholm’s membership.
On Thursday, July 6, the foreign ministers of Sweden, Finland, and Turkey are set to meet at the headquarters of NATO to continue the negotiations. Then, next week, NATO is holding a summit in Lithuania.
Almost a week before the NATO summit in Lithuania, it is increasingly looking like Turkey won’t approve Sweden’s membership bid to the transatlantic alliance. In return, Ankara’s bid for F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets is likely to get shot down by a Congress that wants Sweden in NATO as soon as possible to counter Russia in the Baltics.
Despite being a NATO member, Turkey continues to be friendly with Russia, in addition to other U.S. adversaries like Iran and China.
A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
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