Key Points – Ukraine’s recent “Operation Spiderweb” drone strike, which reportedly destroyed or damaged multiple Russian Tu-95 “Bear” strategic bombers deep within Russia, represents a significant and potentially irreplaceable loss for Moscow’s long-range aviation.
-These Soviet-era aircraft, first flown in 1952 and used extensively to launch cruise missiles against Ukraine, cannot be readily replaced as their production lines closed decades ago.
-With Russia’s next-generation PAK DA stealth bomber years from service and modernized Tu-160 production proceeding at a “glacial pace,” the attrition of operational Tu-95s directly degrades Russia’s current strategic strike capabilities and its ability to sustain long-range bombing campaigns.
Russia Can’t Replace The Lost Tu-95 Bombers
During the Ukrainian drone attack on Sunday on Russian airfields, several Tu-95 Bear strategic bombers were destroyed or damaged. These losses were keenly felt, although the Tu-95 is a Cold War-era bomber from the 1950s.
The production of the Tu-95 and the Tu-22M ended after the 1991 collapse of the USSR, meaning that any of them lost Sunday couldn’t be replaced. Russia also has another type of strategic nuclear-capable bomber, the supersonic Tu-160.
According to military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko, this loss is a devastating one for Moscow.
“Today, Russia lost over 40 aircraft, either destroyed or damaged, including valuable strategic bombers of various types. The Ukrainian strikes hit four military airfields, including the Olenya airbase near Murmansk and the Belaya airbase in Irkutsk Oblast,” he said.
“The unique feature of this operation was that the drones didn’t fly from Ukraine; instead, they were transported by truck closer to the targets and launched from a minimal distance. They were controlled by artificial intelligence, which selected targets autonomously.”
The Tu-95 Bear Bomber
The Tu-95 is the oldest of the three aircraft, a Soviet-era plane that first flew in 1952. It was initially used to carry nuclear bombs but has since evolved to launch cruise missiles. It is still in service today because the Russian Aerospace Forces use it as a missile truck.
Each aircraft can carry 16 cruise missiles – either the Kh-55/Kh-555 or the newer Kh-101 and Kh-102 air-launched cruise missiles. Just like the old American B-52, the Bear remains an integral part of Russia’s defenses.
Before the drone attack, Russia was believed to have 55 Tu-95s still operational. It was confirmed on video that at least five were destroyed. However, Ukrainian officials are claiming that more than a dozen were damaged. If that is true, then it is a devastating loss that can’t be replaced.
Replacement Isn’t An Option
Tu-95 bombers and other similar Russian strategic aircraft, such as the Tu-22M3 Backfire, are impossible to replace due to the closure of their production lines following the collapse of the USSR.
This means that any losses of existing Tu-95s and other bombers cannot be immediately replaced with new aircraft of the same type. The old Tu-95 Bears are expected to stay in service until at least 2040. However, due to delays in the next bomber, that time may be extended even further.
The Russians were supposed to have the PAK DA, the next-generation bomber, online by now, but that is still in development and isn’t close to being fielded. Therefore, they are currently having to rely on producing the Tu-160 Blackjack bombers that are made at a glacial pace.
The Tu-160 is Russia’s more modern strategic bomber, entering service in 1987. To this day, it remains the largest operational bomber in the world.
It can carry a total of 12 Kh-55 missiles and up to 24 Kh-15s.
Fewer than 20 Tu-160s are in service, and Russia has just begun production of its modernized version, equipped with new engines and avionics.
Russia lost a significant part of its heavy bomber fleet in the attack, “with no immediate ability to replace it,” said Douglas Barrie of the International Institute of Strategic Studies, noting that Moscow’s announced plan to develop the next-generation strategic PAK DA bomber is still in its early phase.
“Ironically, this might give impetus to that program because if you want to keep your bomber fleet up to size, then you’re going to have to do something at some point,” he said.
After Ukraine attacked Russian air bases close to the border and the fighting, Russia dispersed their bombers that had been making cruise missile attacks to bases far from the fighting, in the Arctic and as far as Siberia (Irkutsk), where they were thought to be safe.
However, the Ukrainian SBU Security Service was able to accomplish an unprecedented success by launching this attack close to the Russian air bases. Whether they destroyed 41 aircraft as claimed or not, this was a huge black eye for the Russian FSB and their national defense mechanisms.
A Russian Tu-95 Bear ‘H’ photographed from a RAF Typhoon Quick Reaction Alert aircraft (QRA) with 6 Squadron from RAF Leuchars in Scotland. RAF Typhoon Quick Reaction Alert aircraft were launched from RAF Leuchars to determine the identity of unknown aircraft that approached the NATO Air Policing Area north of Scotland and could not be identified by other means. The aircraft were subsequently identified as Russian military reconnaissance (Bears). The Russian Bears aircraft remained in international airspace as they are perfectly entitled to do. Organization: RAF Object Name: LEU-OFFICIAL-20140423-0326-0015 Category: MOD Supplemental Categories: Equipment, Aircraft, Foreign Aircraft Keywords: QRA, Russia, Russian, Bear, Aircraft, Quick Reaction Alert, Intercept Country: Scotland
Tupolev Tu-95MS, Russian Air Force.
Russian Bomber. Image: Creative Commons.
About the Author:
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
Michael
June 3, 2025 at 4:31 pm
The Ukrainian commitment to world peace is relentless.
Jim
June 4, 2025 at 11:47 am
The Tu 95 ‘Bear’ is a prop driven bomber which is configured to carry nuclear weapons, but also has been configured to launch conventional glide bombs into Ukraine and other conventional weapons systems.
Kiev’s attack into Russia destroyed or damaged several of these ‘antiquated’ bombers and a couple more aircraft.
The attack was much more a PR stunt showing Kiev is still kicking… they are… but to what effect?
But the attack doesn’t change the corollary of forces at the front or the basic military equation (balance) as Russia advances at the front especially the Sumy region.
Attacking nuclear capable weapons systems is an escalation… although, it seems Russia is taking into account the Tu 95 ‘Bear’ has been used in its campaign against Kiev and while sharp denunciations have been issued, it seems Russia is not taking it as a strategic attack on their nuclear systems, which according to their Nuclear Doctrine, an attack against Russian nuclear weapons by a ‘Power’ supported by a nuclear power (the U. S.) can trigger a nuclear response against the sponsoring nation and attacking nation.
But it demonstrates Kiev and their sponsors are desperate to show they can still hurt Russia.
The Tu 95 ‘Bear’ bombers destroyed or damaged in these attacks, in a way, are part of Russia’s past military stockpile… why does Russia keep them around if they are antiquated and obsolete?
Numbers matters in the Art of War.