In Trump’s Truth Social post following his phone call with Putin last Monday, the U.S. President wrote the “tone and spirit of the conversation were excellent.” Putin also voiced guarded optimism, adding the call was, “very meaningful.” Words aside, the realities on the ground do not indicate peace is any closer today than before the call.
If Trump and Putin made optimistic comments following the phone call, there were anxious comments coming from European and Ukrainian leaders. Their angst is well placed – though not because their positions are solid or logical. Rather, it is the European and Ukrainian unwillingness to acknowledge painfully evident ground-truth realities that keeps them at odds with Trump’s views.
That is a real problem, at least for Ukraine.
Going back to April 18, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said of the two sides, “If we’re so far apart (that a deal) won’t happen, then the president is ready to move on.” That was repeated by Trump in an NBC interview on May 4 when he admitted “there may come a time” when he’ll walk away. When considering the positions of the two sides now, following the Trump/Putin call, however, that walk-away moment may be close at hand.
From the Russian side, the solution to the war is to a) continue unconditional negotiations while b) continuing to fight, and c) if their conditions can be fully met, adopt a ceasefire. The Ukrainian side, however, wants a) an unconditional ceasefire first, b) additional sanctions on Russia to “force” them to accept peace on Ukrainian terms, and c) give up no sovereign territory. Those are wholly irreconcilable positions, and in fact, one could argue they are further apart now than they were on April 18.
On Wednesday, Zelensky posted on X that he had just completed a conversation with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, and that the two of them had agreed it was “essential that all decisions are coordinated — only then will sanctions be effective. Without pressure on Moscow, a just peace cannot be achieved. Everyone understands this.” The European Union continues to make no diplomatic efforts to find an end to the war, as chief diplomat Kaja Kallas wrote today that the “longer Russia wages war, the tougher our (sanctions) response.”
French President Manuel Macron says Russia must first accept a 30-day unconditional ceasefire. On Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov flatly rejected that position, saying “Now, when we are told: ‘Let’s have a truce, and then we’ll see,’ no, guys. We have already been in these stories, we don’t want it anymore.” One side must give in to the other, and as of now, neither shows the slightest interest in conceding to its opponent.
Where, then, does that leave the situation?
In a stalemate? No, the war is not in a stalemate, but the Russians continue winning on the ground. Last week the New York Times revealed that in the previous 16 months, the Russians had captured 1,826 square miles of Ukrainian territory. The article conceded that the Ukrainian casualties could have a catastrophic consequence, noting that in “wars of attrition, incremental gains can presage a breakthrough, if the losing side runs out of troops and ammunition and its defensive lines finally collapse.”
This is on top of the October 2024 New York Times story that reported that Russia had been seizing Ukrainian territory every month since November 2022. In recent days, the commander of the elite 47th Mechanized Brigade in Ukraine had quit his post because “the stupid loss of people, trembling in front of a stupid generals, leads to nothing but failures.” while the Ukrainian leadership fired the commander of the 59th Brigade.
If Zelensky and his European backers believe that the beleaguered Ukrainian Army can continue to fight, indefinitely, losing thousands of troops every month, and there will never be a break in the lines – or a revolt from the troops – they are playing, pardon the pun, Russian Roulette. No one can suffer those kinds of losses and fight like robots forever.
Consider also that the fact that after Biden’s $61 billion aid package from May 2024 runs out, there is no more American aid coming. Europe clearly cannot make up the absence of American military aid on its own. Therefore, potentially within months, battlefield math will start to increasingly weigh against the Ukraine side, while Russia will only continue getting stronger and bigger militarily.
A collapse of the Ukraine ability to defend its country grows increasingly possible as we get into the summer fighting season.
The only thing that makes any military or diplomatic sense at this point is to acknowledge the ugly truth that there is no path to a Ukrainian success. The West writ large does not have the capacity or leverage to force Russia into any concessions. If we keep with the fiction that strong words will stop actual Russian armed forces, we unwittingly make more likely the nightmare scenario for Kyiv and Brussels: the military defeat of Ukraine.
About the Author: Daniel L. Davis
Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow & Military Expert for Defense Priorities, is a retired Army Lt. Col. with four combat deployments, and host of the Daniel Davis Deep Dive show on YouTube.
