World War III Vibes: Would Ukraine Attack Putin’s World War II Victory Parade?

Key Points and Summary: Vladimir Putin’s proposed May 8-10 ceasefire in Ukraine is viewed by critics and Ukrainian officials as a self-serving maneuver, not a genuine humanitarian effort.

-The timing strongly suggests the goal is to protect Moscow’s paramount May 9th Victory Day parade—marking the 80th anniversary of WWII victory and personally vital to Putin—from potentially embarrassing Ukrainian drone strikes, especially with dignitaries like Xi Jinping present.

-Ukrainian President Zelenskyy dismissed the proposal as “manipulation,” while intelligence chief Budanov hinted at a possible strike. This situation highlights the parade’s symbolic vulnerability and deep Ukrainian skepticism regarding Russia’s ceasefire motives.

World War III Time? 

This May Day, an editorial in The Hill has a harsh take on the issue of Russia’s proposed call for a 30-hour ceasefire, beginning a week from today. “Russian President Vladimir Putin’s call for a three-day ceasefire from May 8 to May 10, based on ‘humanitarian considerations,’ is a complete joke,” reads the editorial.

The reason that the former KGB Lt. Col., who is now Russia’s President-for-Life, has made this proposal is—as the op-ed continues—“to ensure Ukraine does not strike Moscow as Putin and his guests celebrate Russia’s World War II Victory Day Parade—the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany—on May 9.”

For those unaware of the history of this May 9 Victory Day parade, it has become, to Putin’s dictatorial regime, an act of pageantry that is the biggest event in the Russian state calendar. Putin personally engages in planning this event, including the military units and weapon systems planned to participate in it.

Big celebrations of this type held on Red Square were always important during the Soviet period. They were seen as demonstrations of the state’s grandiose plans for the future. The military might showcased were designed to legitimize Communist rule over the nation.

The parades were also a goldmine of information for US intelligence agencies looking to see the latest in new Soviet weaponry on display.

Last Parade Standing—And a Big Target

But since the fall of communism, when the USSR imploded, two of the three massive celebrations that were once held in Moscow and the major cities—the November 7 anniversary of the Great October Socialist Revolution that founded the Soviet state and May Day’s commemoration of communism’s dedication to the working class—were immediately banned.

The only national day left was the Victory in WWII Day procession. It has become the signature event of Putin’s rule over Russia. Given its importance to Putin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy realizes that any attack on Russia on the day of this parade would be a major embarrassment for the Russian leader.

This scenario is precisely what makes the event a huge and nearly irresistible target for Ukraine’s burgeoning drone war on Russia. And, according to an increasing number of observers, given the number of civilian deaths in Ukraine caused by Russian missile attacks, it is a legitimate target.

A report in Politico.eu from April 29 zeroes in on what is probably Putin’s greatest fears about an attack.

“Putin needs a ceasefire on May 8-11 so he doesn’t have to hide Xi and other honorable guests in Lenin’s mausoleum from Ukrainian drones,” Anatoliy Amelin, CEO and founder of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future think tank, wrote in a post on Facebook.

This mention refers to the People’s Republic of China Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping. The Chinese leader is the headliner among a list of other not terribly relevant nations whose leaders will also be attending Putin’s Victory celebration.

War of Nerves

The question is whether Ukraine is really planning an attack on Moscow on May 9 or if this is high-stakes psychological warfare.

Ukraine’s head of Military Intelligence (GUR), Gen. Kyryolo Budanov, has already somewhat directly confirmed that a strike on the Russian capital next Friday is coming.

Budanov said that those attending the Moscow event should “bring earplugs,” as reported on several sites, including X (formerly Twitter). For his part, Zelenskiy has called Putin’s proposed ceasefire “another attempt at manipulation.”

“For some reason, everyone is supposed to wait until May 8 before ceasing fire, just to provide Putin with silence for his parade. We value human lives, not parades. That’s why we believe—and the world believes—that there is no reason to wait until May 8,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a statement late Monday of this week.

Putin “wants to create the illusion for his population that even now, Russia is a victorious great power. Russia has ceased to be a great power, and Ukraine has done this. Because a ‘great power’ cannot have a part of its territory occupied by a smaller power,” said Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the foreign relations committee in the Ukrainian parliament, in reference to Ukraine’s continued occupation of a small part of Russia’s Kursk region.

The other reality, said Merezhko, is that any cessation in the fighting only benefits Putin’s position in the war. In Ukraine, there’s an understanding, he said, that every time Russia announces a ceasefire, it will just pause to assemble more weapons and more troops for a new, stronger attack.

About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson 

Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design.  Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.