Ukraine won’t Stop Fighting without Russian Concessions: U.S. President Donald Trump insisted repeatedly while running for office that he would end the Russo-Ukraine war on day one of his presidency.
This always seemed unrealistic, but to his credit, Trump has tried. Unfortunately, he has used most of America’s substantial leverage to push against the weaker of the two war parties—the side that is the victim in this conflict.
Indeed, Trump has pushed Ukraine far harder than he has Russia. Just this week, Ukraine agreed to a minerals development deal that does not include a U.S. security guarantee and looks suspiciously like Washington arm-twisting Kyiv to score its own easy gains.
There is some room for pressure on Ukraine. For example, even the most pro-Ukrainian Western leaders are unlikely to support its stance that it must retake Crimea. That region is a concession Ukraine likely will have to make under any peace deal.
But Kyiv is unlikely to sign onto any agreement unless Russia makes concessions, too. Even if Trump rejects the justice of Ukraine’s claims, he must still recognize that without mutual concessions, there is no reason for Ukraine to stop fighting. The peace terms Trump has suggested have been so one-sided that they are tantamount to a Ukrainian surrender—a condition Russia has not earned on the battlefield.
Potential Russian Concessions in Ukraine
Because the war is stalemated, Russia is unlikely to agree to major concessions. But if Russian President Vladimir Putin is seriously about ending the war—rather than just pausing it so that Russia can re-fit and try again—here are three obvious concessions he should make and Trump should demand:
Accept Western Peacekeepers
A Russian agreement to not attack Ukraine is not good enough anymore. Russia has repeatedly committed to respecting Ukraine’s borders, and has always broken that commitment. Russia will likely demand control of the territory it has conquered thus far, and will likely receive much of it in a deal.
That is approximately 18% of Ukraine—a substantial loss for Kyiv. Such a concession must be balanced by acceptance of the presence of a Western force along the line of control to ensure that it is a meaningful border, and not a continuing, violent frontline that Putin can cross again at will.
Trump will not commit U.S. troops to police that line, but some Western force is necessary.
Compensate Ukraine
Russia has done enormous damage to Ukraine. Its cities have been devastated by years of terror bombing, and civilians in the occupied territories have suffered terribly. Russia has foreign assets in Western banks that have been frozen for the duration of the war.
It has long been suggested that Ukraine be given these funds as compensation. That should happen.
Ukraine needs a lot of reconstruction assistance, but lenders like the World Bank may hesitate, given the tense regional relationship with Russia. Funding taken directly from Russia gets around that problem and places the burden on the party responsible.
Humanitarian Concessions
Trump should pressure Russia to release all Ukrainian hostages, prisoners, prisoners of war, and kidnapped children. Russia’s behavior toward non-combatants in the war has been appalling. This has stoked Ukrainian nationalism and ensured the country’s willingness to fight on despite tough odds.
One easy concession for Putin to make is to halt such harsh treatment. Ukrainians in occupied Russian territories also must be allowed to leave.
Population transfers often follow the end of a conflict. If Ukraine is going to be pressed into accepting the line of control as a de-facto border, then its citizens should have full freedom to go to their own country.
Russian Concessions are a Test of Whether Putin Really Wants to End the War
The concessions Trump demands of Ukraine are painful. They include accepting territorial losses. If the line of control becomes the de-facto border, it will become harder and harder over time for Ukraine to insist on its rollback. As we have seen in places like Korea or the Indian subcontinent, temporary lines of control often harden into real borders. Thus, Putin’s war will have netted him meaningful gains: recognition of his 2014 Crimea landgrab, and annexation of a substantial amount of the Donbas.
Against these gains, the Russian counter-concessions suggested above are not very costly. Russia will come out as a winner, although not with the major victory Putin expected in 2022.
Ukraine TOW Missile Attack. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
The above-suggested counter-concessions are, then, a test. Does Putin actually want peace? If so, these concessions are a low price to pay for Russia’s decent gains. This is a good deal for Russia and roughly reflects its battlefield success. If Putin rejects any concessions at all, though, then we know he is still the unrepentant imperialist of 2022. In such circumstances, Ukraine will not stop fighting.
Trump claims to have a relationship with Putin. Now is the time to use that influence and pull counter-concessions from Putin to incentivize Ukraine to agree to a cease-fire. Putin, not Ukraine, needs to be the target of Trump’s pressure.
About the Author: Dr. Robert E. Kelly
Dr. Robert E. Kelly is a professor of political science at Pusan National University. Kelly is also a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor. You can find him on X: @Robert_E_Kelly.
Jim
May 2, 2025 at 11:28 am
The author, as a Ukraine war supporter, should be happy with the minerals agreement.
This is more of a wolf in sheep’s clothing arrangement than a real minerals agreement.
How so? Because, by this agreement, the Trump administration can send money to Ukraine labelled as an investment (but really closer to ‘nation building’) instead of a grant. And, abracadabra!!! Kiev has money to “buy” weapons from the United States. What quantities and sophistication? Nobody knows. And, undoubtedly, intelligence sharing with Kiev will continue (a very valuable resource for Kiev).
So, Trump is reverting to a “Biden-light” policy of continuing the proxy war against Russia via a ‘backdoor’ approach.
Trump is not being honest with his supporters who want the U. S. out of the proxy business of supporting a police-state established via a violent overthrow of the democratically elected president.
What will happen? Political pressure will build in Washington claiming a “Biden-light” policy only insures Kiev can keep fighting, but not able to win.
War supporters in Washington will soon demand “Biden-heavy” policy to actually give Kiev a possibility to win… not just ‘die’ slowly over time.
As if we just “try” a little harder the policy will work and Kiev will win… and, if he doesn’t…
… they will charge Trump, cynically, of “losing Ukraine” by insufficient support of the regime.
Does Trump buckle to this pressure? Well, he approved this ‘backdoor’ policy so people in Washington will think Trump can be rolled into continuing the war.
Just what the war supporters wanted all along.
Apparently, they got what they wanted and Trump got ‘played’ again… no, it’s not the first time and probably not the last time.
I’ll say this, and it’s no surprise, given my comment, I’m disappointed with this development.
It’s Trump’s war, now, he owns it, ‘lock, stock, and barrel’.
Trump should’ve Walked Away, now it will stick to him like white on rice and likely he will end-up regretting it.
And, sadly, the American People who wanted to end the war will wonder why Trump reneged on his promise to end the war.
The Washington political establishment was too strong and Trump melted under the weight of Washington.
Not the first person who succumbed to the pressure, but his voters thought he was made of sterner stuff that that.
Tragedian
May 3, 2025 at 8:47 pm
Tsar Vladimir can end the war right now and take the terms that are being offered to him. They satisfy Russia’s core national security needs.
Unfortunately, Tsar Vladimir has a Rasputin whispering in his ear: Alexander Dugin. Dugin has filled the mind and heart of his Tsar and his general staff with delusions of imperial grandeur. If they want to pursue total victory in Ukraine no matter the cost, they can try. And we can cripple Russia for a generation.
Ukraine may end up the biggest loser but Russia’s pyhrric victory will make Russia a loser, too (geopolitically speaking). The rest of us will be victors . . . China above all . . . and China’s victory will be entirely at Russia’s expense.
Idealismo
May 3, 2025 at 11:44 pm
If anyone thought that NATO expansion caused this war, they don’t think so now.
Russia was better off when its propagandists could cloud the picture with half-truths. They can’t do that now. Russia is now significantly worse off. It’s another blunder by Vladimir the Vain.
And Europeans will contribute more to Ukraine’s defense (though there so much more they could do).
And the minerals deal will help a solid majority of Americans feel like they’re not getting ripped off by greedy ingrates who won’t fight and who secretly hate them.
Good work, Vlad!
Michael
May 4, 2025 at 3:17 am
No, putin and the siloviki will not make any concession for peace. They do not want peace – they started all of this, after all. So backing down now – after the losses the have inflicted on russia and russian wives and mothers (and fathers, brothers, sisters) would be akin to signing their own death sentence.
Their refusal will not change the inevitable, however. It will be a combination of 1917 and 1991: a collapse at the front, followed by an implosion in Mockba. China will ensure that the temporary annexation of Amur and outer Machuria is over, Itchkeria will overthrow its chechen Quislings, the other -stan countries will stomp out the Omon and other ”security” forces and break free, as will Tuva and so on.
russia will be small again.
Ol'Timer
May 4, 2025 at 10:49 am
Recent US and NATO history have conditioned Russians to misinterpret Trump’s olive branch: they think it means the West is ready to throw in the towel.
That’s a mistake, Russia.
In this case, it’s a mistake.
In the 250th anniversary of America’s decision to throw off a tyrant and become truly independent, an independence won with Europe’s help, the hearts of the American people will be with Ukraine.
As long as the Ukrainians keep fighting – and do so intelligently – the US and Europe can arm them. Maybe they win, maybe they don’t. But a destroyed Russian military and crippled Russian finances means that Russia loses.
That will be good for the world.
Aleksey
May 6, 2025 at 3:44 am
Oh my God, the Americans! Why are you so stupid? Such nonsense was written in the article and in the comments. The whole point of your “proposals” is: surrender to the Russians, and kill yourself. We can’t kill you. We, Russia, were the sixth largest in terms of GDP in the world. We became the fourth, ahead of your puppets Japan and Germany. Why should we give up? You didn’t get the main point. In the year 91, we offered you peace and cooperation. You decided that we had surrendered, and you had won the Cold War. What can I say. Shove your lucrative offers up your ass