Summary and Key Points: Tensions between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are escalating, particularly over the conflict in Ukraine. Trump’s frustration grew after Putin criticized Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and called for his removal.
-In response, Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil and other products, signaling a significant shift in U.S. policy.
President Donald Trump greets President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine, Friday, February 28, 2025, in the West Wing Lobby. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
-These tariffs, which could reach 25-50%, would impact Russia’s key exports and have global consequences, particularly for China and India, which heavily rely on Russian oil.
-The move could force Putin to reconsider his position, with broader implications for global energy markets and geopolitical relations.
Trump vs. Putin in Ukraine Could Get Ugly
Have all the back-and-forth in negotiations, the half-truths, prevaricating, and antics of Russian President Vladimir Putin begun to test the patience of US President Donald Trump?
All indicators are that the Former KGB Lt. Col. seems to think he can toy with POTUS 47 and see how much of what he wants out of any potential peace deal that he can wring out of the US side in negotiations.
Two factors are prompting Putin’s maneuvering, said a long-time Ukraine-Russia specialist who spoke to 19FortyFive.
One is that “like the Chinese who were once their pupils in setting up a totalitarian state, the Russians are always looking for an option that allows them to ‘win without fighting.’
“Putin may also be encouraged by the fact that the new administration does not seem to have learned from the mistakes of the previous one,” he continued.
“Trump’s national security team quite unwisely gave things away, such as taking NATO membership for Ukraine or boots on the ground off the table before any negotiations have even begun.
“The Russians can always sense when the other side is more interested in appeasing them than they are interested in conceding any major negotiating points, which appears to be what is happening now. It is Putin continuing to push that envelop is prompting some of Trump’s comments over this past weekend and what has caused Trump to make some very harsh statements about the one-time lacklustre KGB officer,” he concluded.
Very Angry and ****** Off
In a Sunday morning call with NBS News, President Trump said he was “very angry” and “****** off” when Russian President Vladimir Putin criticized the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s leadership.
Two days earlier, Agence France-Presse reported that Putin was also calling for Zelenskyy’s removal and the establishment of a pliable, pro-Russian transitional government in his place in Kyiv.
Trump observed that Putin’s comments were “not going in the right location.”
“If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault—which it might not be—but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia,” Trump said in the call with NBC.
“If you buy oil from Russia, you can’t do business in the United States,” Trump said. “There will be a 25% tariff on all oil, a 25- to 50-point tariff on all oil.”
He added that the 25 percent tariff would apply to Russian oil and “other products sold in the United States, secondary tariffs.”
According to subsequent statements, these tariffs would be active within a month without a ceasefire deal.
Trump said Putin knows he is angry but said he has “a very good relationship with him” and “the anger dissipates quickly … if he does the right thing.”
What Can Come of This Reversal
In a commentary in Reuters, Clyde Russell, the news agency’s Asia correspondent, writes, “This is an apparent reversal of his [Trump’s] previous friendly stance toward Putin, which had drawn widespread criticism for effectively abandoning Ukraine to its invader and surrendering to Russia’s aggression.
“The question is whether Trump’s threat is credible and likely to come to fruition, which is the assessment Russia, China and India must make.
“If Putin believes Trump will go ahead and massively boost what are effectively sanctions on Russia’s main export, he may be inclined to back down at least far enough to allow Trump to appear to have ‘won’ in negotiations.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin watches a military parade on Victory Day, which marks the 77th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, in Red Square in central Moscow, Russia May 9, 2022. Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel/Pool via REUTERS.
While the central axis of threatening these tariffs is between Trump and Putin, the implications are broader. What Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping believe about Trump’s ability to make good on his warning impacts the global situation.
This manner of tariffs would impact the energy markets in the two Asian states, but particularly in the case of China, there would be other considerations. Consumers use over 150 products in their daily lives that are made partially or wholly from petrochemicals. Many of those items, including all of our smartphones and other personal devices, are manufactured in China, and they would all be subject to the same tariffs if Beijing continues to purchase Putin’s oil.
The negative impact this would have on the Chinese economy would be blamed on Putin, adversely affecting his relationship with Xi, his most important security partner and supporter in this war. Putin may now have to rethink just how far and how much risk he is willing to take in antagonizing the American president.
About the Author:
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is now an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
