Is It Time for US-Israeli Joint Air Strike on Iran?: Just how long has this been going on? The Iranians have been a thorn in the side of Israel and the United States since the Iranian Islamic revolution in 1979. A state sponsor of terror, Iran takes special pride in sticking it to the eye of the political leadership in Tel Aviv and Washington.
Iran supports at least three terror groups—Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. They are always spoiling for a fight and working on acquiring a nuclear weapon. They have used the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a special force to foment instability in the Middle East for decades. Just what can be done against Iran?
(Dec. 7, 2024) LT Steven Holcomb, attached to the Gunslingers of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 105, operates a F/A-18E Super Hornet on the flight deck during flight operations, Dec. 7, 2024. USS George H.W. Bush is in the basic phase of the Optimized Fleet Response Plan conducting flight deck certification.(U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Jayden Brown)
Deal-Making Doesn’t Work
The United States and the West have tried diplomatic options. President Barack Obama wanted to reset relations with the Islamic Republic, which culminated in a “deal” (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) to prevent the Iranians from obtaining a nuclear device. This multinational agreement was torn up by President Donald Trump in his first term in 2018 because he thought it was “one-sided” and not in the U.S. national interest.
Israeli ‘Bloody Nose’ Stike Accomplished Objectives
Now what? The Israelis, believing the Iranians had supported the vicious October 7, 2023, terror attack instigated by Hamas, conducted a “bloody nose” attack against Iran last autumn. This strike was a massive flight of F-35I, F-15I, and F-16I airplanes that eliminated air defenses, radars, command and control sites, and other military infrastructure. The Iranian surface-to-air missile sites are thought to remain blinded by the successful attack, but to what end?
Iran Continues to Improve Its Military
The next step is not clear. Trump wants the Iranians to enter into another nuclear deal of his design, but the Iranians are playing hard to get. They continue to build ships like a new drone carrier that can deliver missiles and small boats to the fight and harass enemy shipping in the Persian Gulf.
The Iranian ballistic missile system is one of the best in the world. I have a PhD in International Security and have difficulty keeping up with all the different types of missiles the Iranians can launch. So, that gives you an idea of Iranian rocket forces’ diversity, breadth, and depth. If Iran achieved a nuclear weapon, it would likely take only 12 to 24 months for the ability to miniaturize the device and mate it to a missile.
This advance would completely change the balance of power in the Middle East and give the Iranians an existential threat over Israel, not to mention Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other Gulf States. It would surely kick off a disastrous nuclear arms race in the region.
The Plan Is There for a Joint Attack on Iran, But Should It Happen?
The Americans and Israelis likely already have a plan to attack Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure to keep Iran from becoming nuclear-capable. The Israelis would fly more fighters like the F-35I in “beast mode” to continue to take out air defenses. The Americans would deploy B-2 bombers already in Diego Garcia with aerial refueling tankers on standby. The B-2s would carry ground penetrating “bunker buster” bombs to reach underground nuclear infrastructure that would keep the Iranians from fashioning a nuclear weapon.
So, an attack like this could be done, but should it be done?
Unless the Americans and Israelis are ready to go all the way with regime change to take out the Supreme Leader of Iran, a significant Israeli-American aerial attack is not the best solution.
The threat of a broader war in the Middle East would be triggered, and Trump and Vice President JD Vance do not want to be sucked into another conflict there, especially with American ground troops having to deploy.
Maximum Pressure Part Two
That leaves diplomacy, but can the Iranians be trusted to resist making a nuclear device? Relieving sanctions will not do the trick. Allowing the Iranians to export oil again might help. Trump has bragged that in his first term, the Iranians were “flat broke” due to his administration’s first maximum pressure campaign. The Iranians are accustomed to this state of affairs. Their economy is always in shambles, so financial sanctions are not the most effective tool in the shed. Trump has even started the second phase of maximum pressure this year.
Regime change is one idea that could have merit. However, there is no internal democratic resistance in the country that could overthrow Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei and insert a new government friendly to the U.S. and Israel. Most groups that have discussed regime change are socialists. That leaves the oldest son of the former Shah, Reza Pahlavi, Crown Prince of Iran, to lead the charge.
Pahlavi has a vision for a democratic Iran. “My only goal in life is that the Iranians can finally go to the election polls and vote their conscience and decide their fate,” he told Newsweek.
The crown prince does not think diplomacy with Khamenei will ever work. But Pahlavi does believe that the people of Iran could rise up someday and overthrow the mullahs. He thinks around 80 percent of Iranians are unhappy with the regime. Thus, Israel and the United States would be better off fostering a resistance movement and a government in exile should regime change ever happen.
F-35I Adir. Lockheed Martin Photo
This could take years if it were to occur at all. Thus, the options with Iran are limited. There is the military approach, which is dangerous and could fail to succeed and only harden the hatred the regime has for Israel and the United States. A substantial joint bombing strike to eliminate nuclear infrastructure may not work and will only result in more terror attacks by Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
Diplomacy will likely fail, and regime change will be difficult. But the nature of “armed” diplomacy—the threat of violence—could force the Iranians to the table and keep the Supreme Leader from escalating his nuclear program. Meanwhile, supporting resistance groups in the United States and creating a government in exile could pressure the regime to allow democratic change.
If I were advising President Trump, I would not recommend a combined Israel and American air strike on Iran. A broader war in the Middle East and more terrorism would arise, and this would only end in additional civilian bloodshed. The answer is deterrence, armed diplomacy, and supporting democratic movements and regime change by overthrowing the ayatollah for a more friendly and secular political leadership.
B-52H and F-35I Adir. Image Credit: IDF.
This is possible with both Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu’s willingness to play the long game and allow diplomatic and political efforts to play out with no need for a combined U.S.-Israeli military strike.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
