Donald Trump is taking a gamble. He has pressured Ukraine into outlining its opening position for ceasefire talks while offering Putin the prospect of better U.S.-Russia relations if he agrees to participate in those talks. The strategy is clear: coerce Zelensky into painful concessions while attempting to seduce Moscow with the promise of some sort of U.S.-Russian entente. But the deep antagonisms between the two sides make any peace agreement – whether in the form of a temporary ceasefire or a permanent settlement – almost inconceivable.
Putin believes time and battlefield dynamics are on his side. Specifically, he believes that given time Russian forces will continue to grind down Ukraine’s military and erode its political will, and that Washington’s patience will eventually wear thin. A clear victory for him. As long as he is convinced of this, Putin’s only reason to engage in talks is to manipulate Trump into further pressuring Kyiv while buying even more time for the Russian military to consolidate its battlefield gains. The question, therefore, is no longer whether or not Trump’s strategy will succeed – it won’t – but how long Putin will be able to string Trump along.
While Ukraine’s agreement to a U.S.-brokered framework stipulating its conditions for a ceasefire was supposed to generate momentum for negotiations, it has only highlighted the futility of Trump’s approach. The proposal specifies Zelensky’s willingness to cease hostilities, his aspiration that the U.S. restore military aid and intelligence sharing, engage in prisoner exchanges, and secure the return of Ukrainian children taken to Russia. To be sure, these reflect short-term Ukrainian interests and goals.
But the U.S.-brokered statement does not reflect – and certainly doesn’t alter – the fundamental reality that Russia has no short-term interest in a ceasefire and no longer term interest in settlement on terms that leave Ukraine intact. Putin’s response has therefore been as predictable as it is uncompromising: he has issued his own demands, insisting that Kyiv recognize Moscow’s control over annexed territories, abandon its NATO ambitions, and accept a disarmed and neutral status. These conditions are politically and strategically impossible for Zelensky to accept, practically guaranteeing that no ceasefire will materialize.
Compounding this impasse is the battlefield situation. Russia’s ongoing Kursk offensive is steadily pushing Ukrainian forces out of Russian territory. Though the operation has not yet fully succeeded, its trajectory is clear: given more time, Russia will consolidate its gains, pushing Ukrainian forces out of Russia. This is precisely why Putin sees no need to negotiate. Zelensky had hoped that his own offensive last summer to take a big chunk of Russian territory would provide the leverage to force Russia to the table, but that effort has dramatically failed. Now, the momentum having shifted in Moscow’s favor, Putin has every reason to stall, bleed Ukraine dry, and wait for U.S. resolve to erode.
The illusion that Trump can broker a lasting peace simply ignores the scale of enmity between the two belligerents. The war is not just a dispute over borders; it is a war of national survival for Ukraine and a war driven by profound national security anxieties on the Russian side – anxieties that Putin believes can only be mitigated if Moscow reasserts its control over its “natural” sphere of influence. Kyiv cannot agree to the dismemberment of its state, and Moscow will not accept a Ukraine strategically aligned with the West.
No application of the “art of the deal” can paper over these profoundly incompatible goals. The U.S. can pressure Ukraine to accept unfavorable terms, but it cannot adhere to those terms they do not guarantee Ukraine’s security. Viewed from Kyiv, any ceasefire that leaves Russia occupying Ukrainian land would simply set the stage for another round of fighting once Moscow is ready to strike again.
Trump’s strategy – pressuring Ukraine while courting Russia – assumes that Putin can be seduced into de-escalation. This is a profound strategic misreading. Putin has spent years preparing for a long war, restructuring Russia’s economy to withstand sanctions and reorienting its defense industry for sustained conflict. He does not see Trump as a threat but as an opportunity—someone he can manipulate into further undermining Ukraine’s position while extracting diplomatic and economic concessions from Washington. For all of Trump’s confidence in his deal-making abilities, he is stepping into a negotiation where only one side—the United States—is operating in good faith.
If Trump truly wants to bring this war to an end, he will have to recognize that coercing Ukraine while wooing Russia is a losing strategy. If the U.S. offers Russia incentives without demanding real concessions in return, Putin will take what he can get and offer nothing in return.
If Trump continues to pressure Zelensky into unilateral concessions, he risks destroying Ukraine’s ability to continue fighting while gaining nothing in return. The harsh reality of this war is that peace cannot be imposed on Ukraine without giving Russia exactly what it wants: a sphere of influence that includes Ukraine.
Trump also underestimates the extent to which Zelensky itself will resist any settlement that rewards Putin’s aggression. While Washington can pressure Kyiv, it cannot erase the political reality that simply cannot survive if he agrees to what would be widely seen as surrender. The notion that Zelensky can simply be strong-armed into accepting Putin’s terms ignores the degree to which Ukrainian nationalism has been hardened since 2022.
Lancet Drone. Image Credit: Russian State Media.
As a result, if Zelensky were to accept a ceasefire under duress, there is no guarantee that Zelensky would remain in office or that his successor would accept and implement its terms. Trump’s approach assumes that peace is a matter of diplomatic leverage when, in reality, the war is driven by forces – in Thucydides words, “honor, fear and interest” – that diplomacy often cannot override.
Trump’s approach has already failed. The only question now is how long it will take for his administration to realize it – and how much ground Ukraine will lose in the meantime.
About the Author: Dr. Andrew Latham
Andrew Latham is a non-resident fellow at Defense Priorities and a professor of international relations and political theory at Macalester College in Saint Paul, MN. Andrew is now a Contributing Editor to 19FortyFive, where he writes a daily column. You can follow him on X: @aakatham.
