Ron DeSantis already done? The answer is we don’t know. It’s too early. The first primary vote hasn’t happened and the first debate hasn’t even occurred.
But it’s easy to start having flashbacks to Scott Walker and Tim Pawlenty–dynamic, youthful Republican governors that knew how to win in battlegrounds. They look great on paper, enough to excite the donors, then quickly fizzle.
If DeSantis falls by the wayside, who will big GOP donors look to next to attempt to stave off Trump?
The Florida governor’s 20-point victory in November was the perfect contrast to the near wipeout of Donald Trump-endorsed candidates across the country that led to a disappointing victory and flimsy Republican House majority.
DeSantis was the conservative movement’s golden boy for the longest time. He had all of Trump’s good qualities and none of the bad. He was a fighter like Trump, but a fighter that knew how to win big legislative victories, fearless about jumping into tough issues and minus the petulant Trump fits.
But now, it’s hard to see where he can bounce back. He was once leading or tied with Trump in early primary states. Now, he’s lagging on average 30 points behind the 45th president.
It’s largely the result of relentless Trump attacks, and attacks from the pro-Trump Make America Great Again PAC that went after DeSantis for how he eats pudding, but more importantly claiming he would slash entitlements.
DeSantis, like most of the ridiculously large Republican field, refrained from attacking Trump–fearing he would alienate the supporters.
But the recent pro-DeSantis PAC ran a fairly awkward attack ad on Trump’s LGBT record and pride month. The point of the ad wasn’t so bad. Calling out an opponent’s past record and public statements is not at all out of bounds. The problem was the weird production aspects of the music and images.
The clumsy attack ad came after being mostly silent, or at best, only subtle in critiquing Trump. Newsweek said, “DeSantis has failed to take advantage of Trump getting indicted in both the New York falsifying business records case and Special Counsel Jack Smith’s classified documents investigation, where the former president has denied 37 charges respectively.”
Eh maybe. But Trump seems to have gained in the general election polls against Biden since his indictments. So, it hardly makes sense that attacking him over the legal issues–as Chris Christie is doing–would help in a Republican primary.
But in the 2016 cycle, Sen. Ted Cruz initially avoided taking Trump on head-on–until it became a two-man race for the nomination. By this time, Cruz’s attacks came across as a little hollow. The point is, maybe DeSantis should have aggressively taken it to Trump much earlier.
Also, with so many polls showing Trump too close to call with Biden, DeSantis has largely lost his electability argument.
The bigger problems are in his polling.
DeSantis has just a 35% favorable rating according to FiveThirtyEight and a 45% unfavorable rating. That’s up from his unfavorable rating in March, when it was split with 39% each.
That’s a big problem.
No, that’s not game over, and time to declare Trump the nominee by acclamation. But it does show DeSantis is trying to push a boulder up a mountain.
Sure, he’s got a solid lead over all the other GOP candidates not named Trump. But that could change. Likability can’t be overstated in a presidential race.
A recent poll showed anti-woke businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, broke 10%, trailing DeSantis by just six points. If Republicans seek a businessman—like Trump—without the Trump drama, he might be their answer.
There could be an opening for the very likable South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott to sneak into second place if DeSantis does the Walker/Pawlenty fizzle route.
Trump’s former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley might pull it off as well. Though, she comes across as a bit too focus-group tested.
While a lot of GOP voters might be steamed at former Vice President Mike Pence, most Republican voters know in their hearts he did the right thing on Jan. 6, 2021, and might be willing to give him a chance. I mean, anyone who says they like the Trump policies without the drama—his vice president is the logical place to turn.
There are others–all lurking in 1% land. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum is unknown now, but as a billionaire, he could just write checks and flood the airwaves to become relevant.
Again, it’s early. Recall that Joe Biden was written off entirely after losing Iowa and New Hampshire in 2020, but bounced back for a huge victory in South Carolina and wrapped it up on Super Tuesday.
Much could change. But it’s very likely past time we ponder that the change could be another candidate replacing DeSantis for second place instead of DeSantis replacing Trump for first place.
Barbara Joanna Lucas is a writer and researcher in Northern Virginia. She has been a healthcare professional, political blogger, is a proud dog mom, and news junkie.
From 19FortyFive
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