The Ukrainian counteroffensive has entered a new phase.
Over the last few days, the Ukrainian military has likely committed a significant portion of its heavy brigades into the fighting in an attempt to create an operational breakthrough.
Kyiv is making promising progress on the ground.
A New, Promising Phase in Ukraine War
The Ukrainian military has likely committed the bulk of its forces to the counteroffensive in the western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, southern Ukraine. To do that, Kyiv likely saw an opening in one of the several axes of advance it has been pursuing and saw an opportunity to achieve an operational breakthrough.
According to Pentagon officials, the main thrust of the counteroffensive is now underway, with thousands of Ukrainian reserves, including the 10th Operational Corps, heading into the fighting in southern Ukraine.
Russian officials estimate that Ukrainians have thrown into the fray close to 100 Leopard 2 main battle tanks and M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. Videos from the ground show mechanized columns with a plethora of weapon systems, including T-80 tanks and BMP infantry fighting vehicles.
The first major objective of the Ukrainian thrust is likely the port city of Melitopol, near the coast of the Sea of Azov. Ideally, the Ukrainian military would like to cut off the land bridge that connects Russia with the occupied Crimean Peninsula.
Ukrainian forces are making good progress in the wider area, liberating the key logistical node of Staromayorsk in the Donetsk Oblast, northeast of where the main thrust is taking place.
Starting in the first week of June, the Ukrainian counteroffensive sought to breach the extensive Russian defensive lines in the Donbas and southern Ukraine. However, Ukraine’s Western-trained and -equipped units encountered a wall of minefields, anti-tank obstacles, trenches, and fortified villages. The counteroffensive stalled. But the Ukrainians never stopped attacking, adjusting their operational approach and tactics to the realities of the battlefield.
Kyiv went after the Russian long-range fires, destroying hundreds of artillery pieces, multiple launch rocket systems, and counter-battery radars in the sector. The Ukrainians also sought to attrite the Russian units and force the Kremlin to move around units from other sectors.
The fighting has been bloody for both sides.
Russian Casualties in Ukraine
Russian forces persist, taking significant casualties on the ground. On day 521 of the invasion, Russian forces lost close to 600 men killed, wounded, or captured. The new phase of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is almost certainly to increase the rate of casualties on both sides.
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Friday, Ukrainian forces have killed and wounded approximately 244,830 Russian troops, destroyed 322 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets, 311 attack and transport helicopters, 4,190 tanks, 4,775 artillery pieces, 8,161 armored personnel carriers, and infantry fighting vehicles, 698 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 18 boats and cutters, 7,240 vehicles, and fuel tanks, 458 anti-aircraft batteries, 4,007 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 709 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 1,347 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
