There is nothing especially “civil” about civil wars.
These tend to be bloody and destructive conflicts, where old scores are often settled at a personal level.
And they still happen all over the world – with millions dead as a result.
A Second American Civil War Possible?
There remains an argument that the United States is tragically headed for a second civil war – this one fought over political ideology.
It is seen literally as a war that could be fought between the left and right in this country.
“American politics turned hyper toxic several years ago, and ever since commentators have raised the specter of a second civil war. No other historical parallel, it seems, captures so viscerally today’s national division into two hostile camps, each convinced the other poses a mortal threat to the republic,” the Council on Foreign Relations noted in a piece looking at how today is not like the 1850s – the years leading up to the Civil War.
It argued that we are not all that close to the same type of open conflict we witnessed 160 years ago. There are several factors at play that need to be considered.
The last – and hopefully only – American Civil War was one of geography. The elected officials from the states that made up the confederacy agreed to secede from the United States. Today, we may have red and blue states, but we have deep pockets of blue in the reddest of states like Texas, just as we have plenty of red counties in states like New York and California.
Yet, the American Civil War was unique in that it was a geographical split. Rarely has this been the case, but even that does not mean we could be headed toward open conflict.
Lessons From History
There is an argument to be made that democracies are less warlike than other regimes, but that fact doesn’t make democracies immune from civil wars unfortunately. Rome was famously a republic for centuries before it came to be ruled by an emperor – yet, it attempted to conquer neighboring lands, and further suffered through a series of civil wars.
By contrast, the English Civil Wars were very much about correcting the balance between Parliament and King Charles I. A series of three wars, these led to the defeat and eventual execution of the king, and the short-lived Commonwealth of England (not to be confused with the modern Commonwealth of Nations). That experiment as a republic failed, and the UK sought to see King Charles II restored to the throne.
Moreover, the Russian Civil War didn’t bring down a monarchy as many may believe – the February Revolution saw the end of the dynastic rule of the Romanovs replaced by a provisional government but its new Russian Republic was in turn overthrown by the Bolsheviks just six months later in the October Revolution, resulting in the deadly war that followed, costing millions of lives. It resulted in the creation of the Soviet Union, which itself collapsed after seven decades. Russia is hardly a model example of a successful democracy, but its situation has been much worse!
Why It Won’t Happen Here (Again)
The Roman Civil Wars were essentially feuds between powerful men, who literally were able to raise armies; while the English Civil Wars were also the result of squabbles by powerful men who essentially commanded their own armies. The Russian Civil War began as the country was mobilized for the First World War, which was going badly for Russia. Those armed soldiers in Russia just picked the side they wanted to support.
None of those factors are true today.
Though a violent mob stormed the U.S. Capitol in what should forever be seen as a dark stain on our nation’s history, there was little chance it could have ignited a civil war. Despite the rhetoric that it threatened democracy, it really did not. It is highly unlikely to the point of it being almost improbable that the United States Department of Defense was ready to rally behind then-President Donald Trump.
Likewise, the United States maintains checks and balances that didn’t exist in ancient Rome, 17th-century England or in Imperial Russia just over a century ago. The president’s powers are not absolute, certainly not to the extent that we have witnessed in our nations that fought such civil wars.
There remains a danger that future presidents will have greater power; but even then, no one person can control the media, the intelligence community, and the military in a way to truly end democracy.
The People Will Not Rise Up
There is a worry that extremists on the right, as well as some on the left, could attempt a violent overthrow – but as President Joe Biden has noted, they’re going to need more than an AR-15. The Spanish Civil War of the late 1930s came about due to the passage of a radically reformist constitution earlier that was rejected by a large portion of the population. In Spain, it went from crisis to full-blown war because a significant number of military leaders weren’t on board with the direction the country was headed.
The civil war in Spain was also orchestrated by foreign outsiders who benefited from the chaos. This is why the influence from Russia and China should be seen with such great concern.
It is also absolutely true that we’re deeply politically divided, but the question needs to be asked – how many Americans are actually ready to go and fight for their cause? Wars are messy, time-consuming, and uncomfortable. Marching in a protest, throwing a rock when things get out of hand, or ranting on social media about the state of the world is vastly different from manning the barricades and fighting in the trenches.
We simply live in a world where people lose it when Netflix is down, and we can barely find help for the service industry. How does anyone raise an army given those and other facts?
America simply isn’t headed for Civil War because we’re 21st-century Americans. A few hotheads will continue to make trouble – and they should be punished accordingly if they go too far, as they did on January 6, 2021. But an actual American Civil War 2.0 won’t happen because we like our conveniences just too much, while the checks and balances are in place.
Instead, we are likely to remain in an uncivil war where we just do not like each other all that much.
Author Experience and Expertise
A Senior Editor for 19FortyFive, Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu.
