China’s threat to the United States has increased tenfold in just the past few years. Once a continental power possessing a strong army and weak navy, for the last 20 years, Beijing has fixated on becoming a dominant maritime power in their near-abroad.
Because of China’s growing wealth over the last several decades, paired with their massive industrial base (given to them by greedy Wall Street types since the 1970s), today China’s navy is the largest in the world.
While several US Navy strategists insist that China’s navy is larger than America’s, but it is not as good, China’s war planners counter with the old maxim that, “quantity has a quality all its own.”
As war fever grips the Chinese and American leadership castes, with countries like Taiwan, India, and Japan stuck in the middle, the navies of the two countries will be vital if a conflict were to ever erupt.
Specifically, the submarine forces of the United States and the People’s Republic of China will be instrumental in any potential conflict.
They would effectively be the first points of contact in combat between the two global powers.
There’s been some troubling submarine news over the last year, too.
The Connecticut Incident
In October 2021, for example, one of America’s few Seawolf-class submarines, the USS Connecticut,purportedly crashed into an unknown undersea mountain while it was on patrol near the secretive, advanced Yulin naval base on China’s Hainan Island.
While no official statement was made by US military leaders about the nature of the Connecticut’s mission, it is assumed that the sophisticated Seawolf-class sub was surveilling the secretive Yulin naval facility. While that is not a proven fact just yet, it is very possible for clear reasons and rationale.
Multiple retired Navy personnel that I’ve spoken to who have spent time in the South China Sea, where the event happened, insist that such an outcome is possible because the South China Sea is relatively shallow and notoriously difficult for submersibles—even those manned by the best and bravest personnel in the fleet, such as the Seawolf so often are—to navigate safely.
Of course, there are those in America who remain skeptical, given the covert nature of Seawolf-class submarines and the increasing sophistication and secrecy surrounding China’s Yulin naval facility. For the last several years, Chinese military leaders have gotten increasingly twitchy with American surveillance missions happening so near the secretive island.
With tensions intensifying between the two countries, the Americans have been compelled to expand their surveillance missions to gather intelligence on Chinese naval capabilities and intentions.
Hainan Island: At the Heart of Tension
Hainan Island is itself no stranger to controversy in the growing Sino-American rivalry. In April 2001, a US Navy spy plane was rammed by a Chinese warplane that had been scrambled from Hainan to intercept the US Navy plane as it conducted an electronic surveillance mission over international waters, near the island.
The US plane was forced to make an emergency landing on the island, where its crew was held in Chinese captivity for weeks until the George W. Bush administration could negotiate a peaceful solution (which eventuated in the mothballing of the spy plane while in Chinese custody and the destruction of the surveillance data).
American investigators determined that the Chinese fighter pilot who had intercepted the US Navy plane acted too aggressively and accidentally crashed into the American plane, causing terminal damage to the smaller Chinese craft, and forcing the Americans to make an emergency landing on the island.
A Nuclear Accident at Sea?
China’s military has proven it will aggressively act to prevent the Americans from collecting vital signals intelligence from the militarized island.
A massive expansion of China’s military presence has occurred on the island as well, indicating the seriousness that Chinese leaders have about enhancing their naval capabilities—notably in the South China Sea, which Beijing believes to be a Chinese possession whereas international law says otherwise.
This brings us to the current controversy in which unconfirmed reports state that China recently lost a nuclear submarine in the Taiwan Strait (adjacent to the South China Sea and separating the Chinese mainland from Taiwan).
The submarine in question belonged to the Type 093, or Shang-class nuclear submarine model that represents the pinnacle of China’s submersible capabilities. One of six known units, based out of Yulin, it is completely probable that not only was the submarine operating Taiwan, but that something went catastrophically wrong.
Beijing denies that the event ever took place and the US military cannot yet confirm if the catastrophe did occur. Given that there is a nuclear reactor involved, many of the surrounding nations—including Taiwan—are demanding answers.
Did the submarine sink because of human error by the crew? Or did sink because it was attacked?
At present, we have no confirmation of anything about the submarine, but it is possible something horrible did indeed go wrong. As events become clear, 19FortyFive will keep you updated.
The Lamps are Going Out All Over the Indo-Pacific
One thing should be clear to all: the undersea rivalry between China and the United States is bubbling to the surface. The Yulin naval base on Hainan Island plays a significant role in this unfolding saga. Taiwan, too, is an integral element to this evolving story.
The reason behind the Connecticut’s possible failed mission near Hainan two years ago and the concerns that a powerful Chinese nuclear submarine may have gone down near Taiwan is because Beijing is drastically increasing its operational tempo in the South and East China Seas as well as the Taiwan Strait and the Indian Ocean.
The world’s largest navy is clearly flexing its muscles in the Indo-Pacific at a time when the US Navy, whatever advantages in quality it may have against China on paper, is distracted, diminished, and stretched to its breaking point.
Americans should stand ready. China is getting ready for a big move against its enemies on the high seas. Beijing is going to strike Taiwan very soon.
A 19FortyFive Senior Editor, Brandon J. Weichert is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, as well as at American Greatness and the Asia Times. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower (Republic Book Publishers), Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life (Encounter Books), and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy (July 23). Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
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