The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south and the east continues to unfold, with slow progress along several axes of advance.
In their attempt to achieve an operational breakthrough, the Ukrainian forces continue to face tough resistance from the Russian military in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast and around the ruined town of Bakhmut.
However, over the past week, there has been an uptick in fighting further to the West, along the Dnipro River.
Fighting Along the Dnipro River in Ukraine
Over the past few days, the Ukrainian military has been conducting a series of small-scale raids against the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, achieving several small bridgeheads and causing alarm to the Kremlin.
“This is in addition to expanding the bridgehead Ukraine has maintained near the ruined Antonivsky Bridge since June 2023. Some of these operations likely took advantage of a local Russian force rotation,” British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war.
Were the Ukrainians to open a new front in Kherson, the Russian military would be hard-pressed to defend the additional territory. The Kremlin has been facing serious force generation problems for months. To defend against the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Russian Ministry of Defense has had to relocate units several times depending on where the Ukrainians are the most threatening.
In addition, the Ukrainian military continues to send special operations units to the numerous islands that dot the Dnipro estuary. The Ukrainian commandos raid and harass the small Russian garrisons, further frustrating Moscow’s operational planning.
“The combatants also continue to skirmish for control of small islands in the Dnipro estuary. Russian commanders face a dilemma of whether to strengthen this area or to deploy troops in the areas of Ukraine’s main counter-offensive operations, farther to the east,” British Military Intelligence added.
Russian Casualties in Ukraine
On day 538 of the Russian invasion, the Russian military continued to lose a steady number of troops every day.
Over the last 24 hours, Russian forces lost close to 550 men killed, wounded, or captured, as well as close to 90 pieces of heavy equipment, such as main battle tanks, multiple launch rocket systems, artillery pieces, armored personnel carriers, and infantry fighting vehicles.
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Monday, Ukrainian forces have killed and wounded approximately 254,380 Russian troops. They also claim they have destroyed 322 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets; 313 attack and transport helicopters; 4,306 tanks; 5,099 artillery pieces; 8,354 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles; 714 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems; 18 boats and cutters; 7,562 vehicles and fuel tanks; 479 anti-aircraft batteries; 4,213 tactical unmanned aerial systems; 766 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems; and 1,378 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
As the weeks pass and the Russian military continues to take heavy casualties, the Kremlin is forced to draw from its stocks of old equipment. The Russian defense and aerospace industry cannot keep up with the attrition in Ukraine.
A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
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