Russian society is still smarting from the Wagner Group’s failed mutiny in June. Russian President Vladimir Putin saw his hold on power loosen in just a day.
He is now trying to reconsolidate his authority in the country’s national security community.
The Kremlin has launched a round of purges against those it believes sided with the mutinous mercenaries. However, it is likely that the Russian military fighting in Ukraine will be the one that suffers in the end.
Russia: Let the Purges Begin
Gen. Sergei Surovikin, chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces and former commander of the so-called special military operation in Ukraine, was likely sacked earlier in the year because of his ambivalent stance toward the Wagner Group.
At least 15 other senior officers and officials have been sacked since the events of last month. In addition, there has been a wave of sackings because officers are relaying the truth about the war. The most notable in this category is the firing of Gen. Ivan Popov, the commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army.
In a leaked video intended for his units, Popov went after the Russian Ministry of Defense for its lackluster support of combat operations in Ukraine.
“The Ukrainian Army could not break through our ranks at the front, but our senior chief hit us from the rear, viciously beheading the army at the most difficult and intense moment,” Popov said.
He was removed from his position soon thereafter.
“Russia has routinely sacked commanders since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, but the removal of the 58th Combined Arms Army’s General-Major Ivan Popov is notable; he was apparently dismissed for voicing concerns rather than for any alleged poor performance,” British Military Intelligence assessed earlier in July.
The Russian Ministry of Defense has been sacking commanders with alarming frequency pretty much since its invasion began on Feb. 24, 2022. The Russian military’s poor performance on the ground is the main reason, but there have been politically motivated sackings as well. In the sycophantic Russian national security community, influence and loyalty are more important than skill.
“Popov’s comments draw attention to serious disaffection many officers likely harbor towards the senior military leadership. The complaints largely echo those made by Wagner Group owner Yevgeny Prigozhin prior to his June 2023 mutiny,” British Military Intelligence stated. “Direct criticism from subordinates is likely to become an increasing problem for Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff General Gerasimov.”
Combat Casualties
In addition to the sackings of senior officers, the Russian military has lost a significant number of field-grade officers to Ukrainian fire.
The latest casualty was Lt. Gen. Oleg Tsokov, the deputy commander of all Russian units in southern Ukraine. Tsokov was killed by a long-range strike in his command post in the city of Berdyansk, in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. In total, the Russian military has lost at least 32 senior commanders in combat, including several generals.
There are two main reasons for this high rate of casualties among Russian senior officers.
First, lackluster operational security. Russian tactical communications at the start of the war were amateurish, allowing the Ukrainians to intercept and use them to attack command and control posts. Although the Russian military has improved its operational security, it continues to make mistakes that invite Ukrainian precision-guided munitions.
The second reason is the structure of the Russian military, which doesn’t encourage initiative from junior officers — there is no non-commissioned officer corps — often requiring senior officers to go to the frontlines in person to direct operations.
A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
From 19FortyFive
