A New Poll Shows Russia Is Looking Beyond Putin – A recent poll in Russia hints at the possibility of the public preparing for a post-Vladimir Putin era, as the country approaches its 2024 presidential election.
The oldest polling institution in post-Soviet Russia is reportedly asking citizens about their views on life after Putin’s presidency and potential successors, according to Abbas Gallyamov, a former speechwriter for the Russian president.
The 2024 presidential election in Russia is scheduled for March 17, and Putin is expected to announce his bid for another term soon. As per constitutional changes made prior to the Ukraine conflict, Putin may hold power until 2036. The Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) is conducting a poll inquiring if Putin’s resignation would improve, worsen, or not change the country’s situation, as well as who could potentially replace him as president.
Abbas Gallyamov, a political consultant and former speechwriter for Putin, mentioned in a statement that such questions were previously not posed to the public. Gallyamov outlined three possible scenarios regarding the purpose of this poll. Firstly, it could be a precursor to a staged event where Putin states he won’t run for office, sparking a nationwide reaction. Secondly, Putin may be genuinely considering launching a succession plan. Lastly, Putin might be contemplating sidelining a popular figure close to him in popularity.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov previously remarked that Russia’s presidential elections are not a true representation of democracy and predicted a 90% victory for Putin. Gallyamov’s insights into this poll suggest that there may be significant changes on the horizon in Russian politics. As Putin’s presidency faces questions and potential shifts, the international community watches closely to anticipate the implications for both Russia and the world.
The impending 2024 presidential election and its aftermath are of critical importance for Russia’s political landscape and its position on the global stage. The poll’s results will offer valuable insights into public sentiment and expectations, shedding light on potential developments in the coming years. As Russia navigates this pivotal moment, the world waits with anticipation to see how the nation’s political trajectory unfolds in the post-Putin era.
What the Experts Told Us
However, when it comes to Putin’s possible downfall, not everyone is as keen to hedge their bets either way. Chris Brunet, a contributing editor at The American Conservative magazine told 19FortyFive: “Anyone who tells you they know Putin will, or will not, remain in power for X amount of time is lying. Predicting the future is extremely hard, and more political pundits need a heavy dose of humility when attempting to do so.
“For an objective quantification of such forecasts, I rely heavily on prediction markets, like Polymarket, where users bet against each other on political outcomes. Currently, $302,595 has been wagered on whether Putin will remain Russia’s President through 2023, with the market favoring a 95% chance of “YES.” If you disagree, I would urge you to wager $100 on “NO” for a potential $1,571 payoff.
“There is no market yet for whether Putin will remain Russia’s President through 2024, but I guess the odds would be in the 80%-90% range. What this means for America is to rationally expect at least a couple of more years of Putin, barring some unforeseen event, which is always possible.”
Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.