If the election were held today, President Joe Biden would lose to an indicted former President Donald J. Trump. That’s what David Wasserman of the nonpolitical Cook Report has determined based on the recent national poll that the group conducted. When Joe Biden was elected in 2020, he barely won.
In some key swing states, Biden skated by with a mere 42,000 votes. Plus, Biden was able to skirt many public campaign appearances due to what was then the ongoing pandemic.
In 2020, Trump was the president, and his record was much more relevant to most voters than Biden’s was, who was a private citizen four years removed from his last time in government.
When voters went to the polls in that election, Trump had humiliated himself during his many public appearances addressing the pandemic—and Trump’s pandemic response policies (crafted by the likes of Dr. Anthony Fauci) had locked our society down and triggered the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression.
Because those events occurred on the eve of the 2020 Election, Trump was doomed. No matter what Trump or his die-hard supporters say about election interference, historically speaking, Americans rarely reelect the president who presided over an economic collapse as Trump had.
A wet rag could have been elected in 2020 over President Trump under those conditions (and with Biden, we’ve come very close).
Biden and Trump Flip Roles
In 2024, if Trump is the GOP nominee (which it increasingly appears as though he will be), then Biden will be in the same position that Trump was in four years prior.
Biden’s record will be far more relevant than Trump’s.
And, if the polling data coming out now is any indicator, Trump’s dizzying array of indictments will have little bearing on whether voters punch their cards for Trump in 2024.
It will simply be a contest of records. Biden’s record is abysmal. Even when compared with Trump’s four years in office—three of which we had relative peace and massive prosperity—Biden’s record is atrocious.
We are living in a strange era, indeed. At any other point in American history, neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump would have been acceptable to the electorate.
In fact, both men are wildly unpopular.
Yet, Joe Biden will be the Democratic Party’s nominee and Trump is on track to become the Republican nominee. Trump, with his indictments and unhinged behavior, will beat Biden, with his abject incompetence and massive corruption scandals, will prove to be one of the least popular presidential races in American history.
But if the polling this early is at all relevant (we’ve got a long way to go before actual voting takes place), Biden will lose to Trump by anywhere from two to 15 points.
The American people are tired of Bidenomics.
They’re exhausted by the wars and rumors of wars. Most people are over the constant division, too.
If it’s Trump versus Biden, the forty-fifth president will defeat the forty-sixth president.
Tell Me How This Ends
Where that outcome leaves the republic is another matter entirely.
Will Trump even leave the White House after his four years are over, or will he insist on being allowed to run for office again, on the grounds that his first term was ruined by his political enemies and his second term, in his view, was “stolen” from him?
These are questions that will have to be answered by the time Trump would be sworn in. The last thing we want is to leave the matter open for Trump to exploit.
For that matter, if the rumors about election rigging are at all true, would Joe Biden even allow for the election in which he is slated to lose to go forward?
That Americans are even asking these questions shows you how bad both candidates are and how far our country has fallen.
A 19FortyFive Senior Editor and an energy analyst at the The-Pipeline, Brandon J. Weichert is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, as well as at the Asia Times. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower (Republic Book Publishers), Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life (Encounter Books), and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy (July 23). Weichert occasionally serves as a Subject Matter Expert for various organizations, including the Department of Defense. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon. He writes opinion pieces for this publication.
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