Who leads in the rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden depends on the poll. The latest CNBC poll shows Trump leading Biden by four points, 46 percent to 42 percent. Only 12 percent are undecided.
Enthusiasm for Biden Lagging
The lack of enthusiasm for Biden is the only reason Trump has stayed in the race. Trump’s high negatives and 91 criminal charges would likely doom him against other candidates on the Democratic side such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom or Michelle Obama.
The perception that Biden is incompetent on the economy and foreign policy negatively contrasts with those of Trump’s time in power. Trump can copy Ronald Reagan’s riposte against Jimmy Carter from their debate in which he said, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago.”
When Americans go to the grocery store and see food and toiletries selling for more than double what they sold for when Trump was president or housing, and higher energy rates, it makes it harder for Biden to argue over inflation.
“Americans’ overall approval rating for the president fell to 37 percent with 58 percent disapproving. It’s the highest disapproval and second-lowest approval rating of Biden’s presidency,” CNBC said.
Right now, Biden’s claims about inflation and the economy sound a lot like George H.W. Bush’s 1991 denials that the U.S. was in a recession. Bill Clinton rode the slogan, “It’s the economy, stupid,” into the White House in 1992.
Trump can point to his time as president. He can remind Americans about the prosperity they experienced while he was president. He can also remind them of the relative stability and peace they experienced while he was president to get him over the top.
“Biden’s 32 percent approval rating on the economy is the lowest of his presidency, while the 63 percent economic disapproval rating is the second lowest,” CNBC reported. “Even while Biden moved quickly to publicly support Israel and provide additional aid, the public is giving the president poor marks for this handling of foreign policy. Just 31 percent approve and 60 percent disapprove.”
CNBC’s report continued, “A part of Biden’s problem looks to come from within his own party. Just 66 percent of Democrats support his handling of foreign policy and 74 percent back his handling of the economy, compared with 81 percent overall approval by Democrats.”
Biden Lags Among Black and Hispanic Voters
Biden’s biggest problem is from Black and Hispanic voters.
Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research Associates, the Democratic pollster for the survey, told CNBC that black voters “have run out of patience, and it’s starting to show through in their decreasing regard for the president.”
Last month, a poll by AEI’s Survey Center on American Life found that just 21 percent of Black voters between 18 and 49 years old want Biden to be the Democratic nominee.
“Their energy drives the electorate,” Adrianne Shropshire, executive director of the left-leaning BlackPAC, told The Hill. “Young Black voters tie their activism and their participation to culture. There’s a cultural element to political engagement and political activation in the Black community and that energy that young people bring really sends a message about when is the moment for the Black community to come together and act in unison around protecting the Black community and the Black community’s interest and the Black community’s future.”
John Rossomando is a defense and counterterrorism analyst and served as Senior Analyst for Counterterrorism at The Investigative Project on Terrorism for eight years. His work has been featured in numerous publications such as The American Thinker, The National Interest, National Review Online, Daily Wire, Red Alert Politics, CNSNews.com, The Daily Caller, Human Events, Newsmax, The American Spectator, TownHall.com, and Crisis Magazine. He also served as senior managing editor of The Bulletin, a 100,000-circulation daily newspaper in Philadelphia, and received the Pennsylvania Associated Press Managing Editors first-place award for his reporting.