Former President Donald Trump called New York City home for most of his life, and in the 1970s bought an apartment in the Phoenix, a luxury apartment on 65th Street in the Upper East Side, and more recently resided in his not-as-large-as-he-claimed apartment in Trump Tower.
Trump was a true blue (blood) New Yorker.
Despite that fact, the Empire State went for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016, and for President Joe Biden in 2020.
According to a new poll from the Siena College Research Institute, the third time could be the charm for Trump. Maybe.
Close But Not Close Enough
The poll of registered voters in New York State, released on Tuesday, found that Trump is closing the gap with Biden – with the current president having just a nine percentage point advantage over Trump. Biden now leads former President Trump 46-37 percent in a head-to-head matchup, down from 52-31 percent last month.
It is also worth noting that Biden crushed Trump 61 to 38 in the 2020 election.
“Is New York still ‘true blue?’ True, 49% of voters are enrolled as Democrats and only 23% as Republicans. True, the last Republican presidential candidate to win here was Ronald Reagan in 1984. But also true is that just last year, a Republican came within seven points of being elected governor. And also true is that right now, Biden has his worst-ever New York favorability and job approval ratings,” explained Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “The good news for Biden is the election is more than a year away. The bad news is there’s more bad news.”
Greenberg went on to explain that while 70 percent of Democrats view Biden favorably, and 70 percent of Democrats also approve of the job he’s doing, 52 percent said they want a different presidential nominee in 2024. That does not mean they would ever consider the Don!
“And in the general, Biden only leads Trump 46-37 percent, a far cry from the 61-38 percent margin Biden won by in 2020,” noted Greenberg.
The Wild Cards
In New York, the third-party candidates could truly change the 2024 race – if it is a rematch between Biden and Trump. In a four-way matchup, with independents Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Cornell West in the race, Biden leads Trump 38-31 percent; while Kennedy has 13 percent and West has 5 percent.
“Biden’s lead slips to just seven points if RFK and West – who, combined, win the support of nearly one in five voters – are on the ballot,” added Greenberg.
Kennedy, the son of the late former Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy, announced weeks ago that he would run as an independent after joining the race as a Democrat, while West left the Green Party in May, but has vowed to run as an independent.
New York is a Deep Blue State
New York has gone for the Democrat in every presidential race since 1984 when President Ronald Reagan won the state (and 48 other states) – defeating former Vice President Walter Mondale in the largest landslide in U.S. history.
However, Trump shouldn’t believe the Empire State is turning red or even purple at this point as he still trails by seven points, while a majority of New York voters – 59 percent – in the recent poll said they still had an unfavorable opinion of the Republican frontrunner.
Moreover, Trump’s legal woes in New York continue – while he now calls Florida home. Neither is likely to win favor with the real New Yorkers!
Author Experience and Expertise
A Senior Editor for 19FortyFive, Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu.
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