The Russian invasion of Ukraine was a protracted war that quickly fell into a high rate of attrition. Losing over 2,500 tanks, several thousand infantry fighting vehicles, dozens of fighter jets, and hundreds of thousands of casualties, Russia has been unable to achieve any of its top military objectives.
Nevertheless, Russia’s Ministry of Defense is adapting to challenges and using old tactics of frontal assaults. Moscow is advancing on several fronts, using a larger manpower pool to overwhelm Ukraine’s current artillery shortage as Europe’s shell allocations have lagged alongside turmoil in US politics.
Due to the political turmoil and slow trickling of military aid, Ukraine’s 2024 strategy will have to be more conservative. Kyiv must focus on defense-in-depth, hitting key Russian military, economic, and logistical targets, continue lobbying for foreign aid across all geopolitical spectrums, and prepare for more centralized offensives later in 2024-2025.
Attrition on Russian Equipment in Ukraine
Vladimir Putin, the longtime Russian autocrat, has always remained indifferent to casualties amongst his armed forces if the ends justify the means. The Kursk Submarine Disaster would sow the seeds of Putin’s callous mood. Nevertheless, Putin and the Kremlin overall value logistics and a stream of economic funds to keep the imperial dream alive.
During the ongoing war in Ukraine, the Russian military has been vastly degraded in equipment. As of early March, 2024, the Russian army has lost over 2,700 tanks, 1,100 armored fighting vehicles, 3,400 infantry fighting vehicles, 102 aircraft, 135 helicopters, and twenty-one naval shipments.
While Russia can maintain equipment losses through 2024, at the attrition rate, the Russian Armed Forces will have to prioritize existing stocks into 2025, even with a wartime economy.
Throwing a battalion’s worth of logistics into offensives in already depopulated Ukrainian cities such as Mar’inka, Avdiivka, Vuhledar, Kupyansk, and Krynky will come back to haunt Moscow as sanctions remain in effect, taking away chances of re-industrializing as quickly as equipment being destroyed.
While Russia favors frontal assaults, primarily with Storm-Z battalions, the Kremlin, eventually, can ill-afford massive equipment losses, allowing Ukraine to focus on such.
Continue Prioritizing Key Russian Targets
Though Ukraine’s summer 2023 counteroffensives did not reach any of the planned objectives, Kyiv struck vital targets such as the Black Sea Fleet, assassinated critical military commanders, and conducted daring raids through the Free Russian Legion on Russian soil.
The decimation of the Black Sea Fleet is instrumental in removing Russia’s ability to provide naval support for forces in the South. Ukraine successfully re-opened grain shipping lanes originally blockaded from the fleet.
Attacks on fixed and rotary wing also take their toll on Russian forces, who tend to fly less in hot spots in which the American-made Patriot Missile System is located. Further supplies of Patriot missiles will be essential for Ukrainian forces in the future as Russia looks to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defenses to beat the system. Meeting Wartime Economic and Mobilization Goals
Ukraine’s economy is ravaged due to the Russian invasion. Because of the economic predicament, Kyiv relies on funding from allies such as the EU, the US, and East Asia to keep the economy afloat.
Securing new funding streams for Ukraine is a top priority for Zelensky’s administration. Kyiv was able to lock down a significant economic aid package from the European Union and Japan.
Nevertheless, to support further combined arms offensives to dislodge the 400,000 Russian soldiers in the occupied territories, Ukraine will have to plan a broader mobilization effort.
While the Ukrainian Armed Forces maintain more disciplined brigades that are proficiently trained due to the Western-sponsored program, many of these brigades are exhausted and have problems with rotations.
Key rotations of beleaguered frontline units and continuous, thorough training of newly trained conscripts, particularly in the Western-sponsored program, will be instrumental as the war is protracted.
Consolidate Along Weak Spots of Russian Defenses to Prepare for Larger Offensives Towards 2025
The Russian military realizes they have several months of opportunities to exploit the Ukrainian army until Western partners fully equip the latter. Therefore, consolidating defensive lines akin to Russia’s Surovikin lines in Zaphorizhzhia is a major priority in 2024.
Currently, Kyiv is reinforcing multiple defensive lines in Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia, as Moscow’s current offensive objectives include the Kremmina, Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, Kupyansk, and Robotyne fronts.
While Russia can amass a large quantity of manpower, the training quality of said men is minuscule, leading to robust casualties along the frontlines.
The Kremlin is also feeling the brunt of equipment losses especially after losing two A-50 command posts and one-fifth of the Black Sea Fleet. Critical losses have forced Russia to consider evasive maneuvers of the Black Sea Fleet and reconsider deploying the A-50s close to the frontlines.
Hampering Russian combined arms and offensive capabilities can open weak points in key locations in the occupied areas of Ukraine if the AFU is sufficiently armed and supplemented by a new wave of troops.
One such weak point that can be exploited is on the left bank of Kherson, where only several hundred Ukrainian Marines are holding a presence in Krynky against 10,000 Russian naval infantry and paratroopers.
Attriting Russian forces while amassing a new wave of trained soldiers supplemented by Western weaponry can open a potential new major offensive in 2025. Still, Ukraine will have to go back to the basics.
Building new defensive lines, sabotaging Russian supply lines in the real through special forces, and targeting critical infrastructure such as oil, aerial command planes, and the Black Sea fleet while amassing a substantial amount of logistics will be essential for Ukraine as the country fights for its sovereignty in 2024.
About the Author: Julian McBride
Julian McBride is a forensic anthropologist, SOFREP contributor, and independent journalist born in New York. He reports and documents the plight of people around the world who are affected by conflicts, rogue geopolitics, and war,and also tells the stories of war victims whose voices are never heard. Julian is the founder and director of the Reflections of War Initiative (ROW), an anthropological NGO which aims to tell the stories of the victims of war through art therapy. As a former Marine, he uses this technique not only to help heal PTSD but also to share people’s stories through art, which conveys “the message of the brutality of war better than most news organizations.”
